DFS MLB Pitching Coach: August 13

Baseball is in the final stretch. This is the time of year where I find it most exhausting. There was a point last week I swear where I did nothing but add and drop closers for three days. On some of my teams I went from having no closers to a bevy of them in a matter of hours.

I have around 25 seasonal teams I manage across Fantrax, Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, and the NFBC. I play in all formats including dynasty leagues, keeper leagues, head-to-heads, and rotisserie. The reason I talk about this is one time I heard someone refer to me on Sirius XM as a great DFS player, but then proceeded to make a comment that I could not name the closer of the Miami Marlins. Here are the facts, I never back down from a league, I will play any EXPERTS and take them down (or at least give them one hell of run). Not only can I name the closer for the Marlins on the spot, I could also tell you his handcuff, who would become the next set up guy, and in some cases, who may be lurking in the minors with high K/9’s ready to step in. I never toot my own horn, but, show me some respect. I will put my money where my mouth is anytime, will you?

Speaking of which, A mongoloid, a midget with Napoleon Complex, and the guy with alligator-arms all show up to your NFL draft? What do you do?

You will have to forgive me today; it has been a trying week. A lot of things have gone down I will not mention. Just remember, if you are my friend, you are my friend. If you are part of my “Fantasy Family”, then you are just that…family. I got your back. Good things happen to good people, and well, not so good people always get what is coming to them in the end. Karma.

So with my rant out of the way, my proclamation of fantasy family now in the open, a horrible cup of coffee (my wife bought Wal Mart brand…Great Value…more like Great Crap), I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.

The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report

OK, so I am not a real weather man. I simply go the National Weather Forecast and spend a few minutes looking over the map. I check for rain location, temperatures, and dew points. Focusing on the areas where there will be MLB. It is just scratching 4 a.m. as I write this so please understand that the weather changes. Quickly at times. I would only use my forecast for a quick glance to make myself aware of where baseballs can fly or die and weather could kill your night. Just understand, I am not doing anything here that no one else could do but glance at a weather page. I am doing this just as a courtesy to provide the best content possible while trying to give you the heads up for your day. Weather is more important when it comes to pitching than hitting. Fact.

Today’s Forecast

Most of the country today is going to be hot and humid once again. If you put your finger on the state of Texas and run it along the entire coast line heading towards Massachusetts it would leave a trail of temps ranging from the high-80’s too mid-90’s with high humidity. Although baseballs will fly, New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Texas could all have possible weather concerns at this early hour so keep an eye on these if you planning on using pitchers here. Otherwise, the rest of the games look good weather wise, especially California for pitching where it is beautiful as always. The Midwest although in close proximity to weather concerns, looks pretty clear with temps in the mid-80’s.

Want MLB weather dates? Tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 4-to-6 p.m. Monday-Friday, hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Also follow ourweather updates on Twitter @MLBDailyWeather.

Afternoon Slate

Can someone please smack me? I swear to god both FanDueland DraftKings are on the same page with this four gamer early slate. Good work boys. 

I find for a four game slate an overabundance of starting pitching. The reality is, six of the eight starting pitchers in my opinion are viable plays today. I really had to think things through to narrow this down. I simply cannot tell you subscribers to play everyone. So although I like Gerrit Cole, the Dodgers are playing to well right now. Brandon McCarthy? Yup, like him as well but he has had problems as of late and the Pirates really can hit RHP. Plus, I actually like some of the bats in this one under the radar.

Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays (FD and Aces Cash, DK GPP)

Aaron Sanchez is slated right now to miss some starts from here out to conserve innings. Lucky for us, he is available today. The Houston Astros are striking out 23.1 percent of the time with a .320 wOBA versus RHP on the season. On the road they are dangerous hitters carrying a .332 wOBA and over the last seven days the Astros are on fire batting .316 with a wRC+ of 131. So why take Sanchez? Over his last five games he has a 2.53 ERA with 22 strikeouts over 32 innings. Three of these games were at home versus the Orioles, Padres, and Tigers where he only allowed four earned runs combined. He is also a -166 favorite and is a groundball pitcher, which explains some of his success at home. Even though the Astros have been knocking the cover off the ball regression at some point is due. They are one of them streaky teams who get hot, then not. I find it a viable strategy to attack a team who is overly hot much like I take David Ortiz when he has gone four of five games without a home run until I get one. Sanchez should dominate this matchup today with an elevated K/9 facing one of the top strikeout teams in MLB.

Danger Zone

Minus the low strikeout total, the BVP in the small sample size is quite refreshing. The current Astros are batting .192 (5-for-26) with one HR (Jason Castro), one RBI, and three strikeouts versus Sanchez. There also should be concern for pitch count. Sometimes Sanchez gets a little crazy on the mound which tends to raise that count. With the Blue Jays looking to conserve his innings, he will be on a short leash. If it is not his day, or he gets beat up, I believe they will yank him before they let him work out of it, or he will be dirty and completely shut them down.

Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees (FD, DK, and Aces cash) (Weather Concerns!)

Today Tanaka is home in Yankee Stadium and is a -152 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.0. Although we have weather issues here it looks like right now the rain will hold off until around 4 p.m. By this time the game should be nearing its end and Tanaka more-than-likely will have gone unaffected by the weather, so the concern is low. Although he had a few bad starts recently surrendering 10 runs over 11 1/3 innings versus the Astros and Mets on the road, he showed what he was made of at home versus the Indians in his last start pitching six innings while striking out eight batters with one earned run. The Tampa Bay Rays are striking out 23.2 percent of the time with a subpar .318 wOBA versus RHP on the season. As of late the Rays are not exactly tearing it up either batting .246 over the last seven days. Tanaka has displayed swing and miss stuff (11.6-percent swinging strike rate) and should easily handle the Rays at home making him a great cash game play today and the top on DK.

Danger Zone

The BVP is more than doable. The current Rays are batting .133 (12-for-90) with two HR (Kevin Kiermaier and Desmond Jennings), four RBI, and 21 strikeouts. You hear that? It’s the sound of victory.

Matt Andriese, Tampa Bay Rays (GPP) (Weather Concerns!)

This is one of the best young pitchers who gets no attention. Everyone is Dylan Bundy this, Jose Berrios that, but Andriese is getting it done. In his last two starts he has allowed four earned runs to the Twins and Royals on the road while striking out eight batters over 8 2/3 innings. I realize he has not gone very deep into games but I find the matchup too inviting to not throw a few bucks on him in a GPP. The Yankees are only striking 19.8 percent of the time with a miserable .301 wOBA (28th in MLB) and low wRC+ of 85 versus RHP on the season. On the roadtheir numbers do not improve much with a .307 wOBA and wRC+ of 87 (28th in MLB). He is dirt cheap today and my favorite offense on the early slate is Toronto so I would need some value somewhere in that stack. If you run Andriese as your SP on FD you can have your way with bats. On DK and Aces, I would consider pairing him with Tanaka as I believe this will be a low scoring game with Tanaka getting the win.

Danger Zone

The BVP is ugly here. The current Yankees are batting .423 (11-for-26) with two HR (Alex Rodriguez who means nothing now and Chase Headley), five RBI, and four strikeouts. Most of this BVP I chalk up to early learning curves. He does however have a 2.90 ERA and 3.88 xFIP which in a ballpark like Yankee Stadium could spell serious disaster.

Luke Weaver, St. Louis Cardinals (GPP-do you have the guts?)

This is not a play to throw the kids college education on, but it is perfect for a $1 to $10 dollar GPP. Before I talk numbers, let me explain my thought process here. The Chicago Cubs are awesome, but they are awesome kids. Most of them are very new to their major league careers. Essentially, Luke Weaver is facing the best minor leaguers now in MLB who are not all that far removed. See where I am going?

The Chicago Cubs are striking out 22.7 percent of the time with a decent .324 wOBA versus RHP on the season, so we haveplenty of strikeout upside available. Weaver is bound to be an underdog today but benefits from a great park shift in Wrigley Field which is 26th in MLB in runs scored. He has been an ace at the minor league level. This season at AA Springfield he had 88 strikeouts over 77 innings with a 1.08 ERA and 88.4 percent strand rate. He has an above average K/9 facing a team of young hitters who strike out a lot in one of the better pitcher’s parks in MLB. I say he is the surprise of the day and has the bats behind him to possibly pull of the win as well. He is cheap, I mean outfielder price cheap. Worth a flyer.

Danger Zone

Anytime we have a young pitcher making his MLB debut it is a dice roll. Sometimes they come out and dominate the first few times through the order and other times, they get lit up. The Cubs are certainly dangerous hitters and they can easily send him packing early. I also was unable to find any comments about possible pitch count for Weaver but it does not mean it will not happen. Like all GPPs at this price, total boom or bust.

Night Slate

We have a nice night slate tonight with a few nice options at SP as well. 

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (FD, DK, and Aces cash) (Weather concerns!)

Jacob deGrom today gets a great park shift at home in Citi Field and is a heavy -219 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 7.0. We do have some weather issues here as well but the rain should stop around 6 p.m. or at least be a non-factor by game time.  

The San Diego Padres are striking out 23.7 percent of the time with a low .301 wOBA (tied for 28th in MLB with the Yankees) and pathetic wRC+ of 89 versus RHP. On the road they struggle just as bad carrying a .303 wOBA (24th in MLB) and are ice cold batting .230 over the last seven days. In case you missed it deGrom has been incredible lately. Over his last two starts versus the Yankees at home and Tigers on the road he has 11 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings with a 0.66 ERA. He is a groundball pitcher with a high 8.55 K/9 and price tag across the industry to go with it. Regardless, in cash games, you spend for deGrom today or the next guy.

Danger Zone

The current Padres are batting .234 (8-for-34) with one HR (Wil Myers), two RBI, and six strikeouts versus deGrom. The K rate seems low but I fully expect that changes today. Jacob deGrom has a 2.20 ERA and 3.29 xFIP. If I was to see this with Carlos Martinez pitching in Milwaukee it would cause me serious concern, but deGrom at Citi Field versus the Padres, is not scary at all. 

Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants

The Orioles used to be able to hit LHP. This season…not so much. The Baltimore Orioles are striking out 22.2 percent of the time with a low .305 wOBA (23rd in MLB) and wRC+ of 88 versus LHP on the season. They also are fairly cold batting .239 over the last seven days. Today Madison gets one of the best possible park shifts both stadium and weather wise in AT&T Park which is 20th in runs scored in MLB and is a -152 favorite in a game with an expected run total of 7.0. Over his last three starts he has 20 strikeouts over 21 innings versus the Reds and Nationals at home and Phillies on the road. He has a high 9.95 K/9 on the season which I fully expect will be in effect today and is right up there with deGrom. In cash games, its one or the other today. In GPPs I will without a doubt find a way to throw out a lineup with both deGrom and Madbum in it while hunting down possible value bats.

Danger Zone

The BVP is so little I am not going to mention it, or the fact his ERA is lower than his xFIP because with Bumgarner at home, I don’t care. Money in the bank.

Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies (Borderline cash on FD and Aces, GPP on DK) (Weather concerns!)

First off, the weather here is not pretty. It looks like it is going to start raining around 8 p.m. and not stop for several hours minus a break around 9. The question is how many innings do you get out of Anderson before the game goes into a delay. We have thunderstorm warnings which also means lightening. So keep a real close eye on this game, it may not go.

The Rockies have quietly built a solid road pitching staff. Today Anderson gets a great park shift pitching at Citizens Bank Park which is 28th in runs scored in MLB facing the current worst team versus LHP. The Phillies are striking out 22.8 percent of the time and are 30th in MLB in both wOBA at .285 and wRC+ at 73 versus LHP on the season. Meanwhile, Anderson over his last two starts has a 1.93 ERA with 11 strikeouts over 14 innings facing a Phillies team that is 30th in MLB at home in both wOBAand wRC+ at .283 and 71. All in if this game goes off on Anderson tonight. 

Danger Zone

The current Phillies are batting .375 (9-for-24) with one HR (Tommy Joseph), one RBI, and four strikeouts. I see hits, no production, no worries.

Dan Straily, Cincinnati Reds (GPP only)

Here is a play that is all risk or all reward. The Milwaukee Brewers are numero uno in MLB versus RHP in strikeouts doing so 26 percent of the time. Dan Straily does have a 7.05 K/9 to go along with his 2.29 ERA over his last three starts versus the Pirates and Giants on the road and Cardinals at home. He gets a huge negative park shift today but nothing he is not used to being from the Great American Smallpark. For the price on Fantasy Aces and FanDuel I find him very interesting, on DK, a possible SP2 or GPP play for sure. 

Danger Zone

The current Brewers are batting .188 (6-for-32) with one HR (Chris Carter), two RBI, and eight strikeouts. Not bad.

Two Borderline Cash game plays that just missed

Hisashi Iwakuma has a reasonable price across the industry and has been pitching lights out. Today he gets the Oakland Athletics on the road so he does get a great park shift. The A’s also are 24th in wOBA versus RHP and batting .217 with a wRC+ of 62 over the last seven days. He was close to a full write up, trust me. 

Jared Eickhoff also just missed taking on the Rockies at home. Great park, decent numbers, bad road offense. The problem is, Charlie Blackmon is just so damn hot I do not want to put any RHP in versus him. In a pinch though, for salary on a two pitcher site like DK, his price is reasonable for the risk.

Two Borderline GPP plays that just missed

Kendell Graveman deserves some slight consideration today facing the Mariners. He has been great at home for the most part and he gets a great park shift pitcher there. In some cases, you may be sneaky and pair him with Iwakuma on a two-pitcher site. That certainly would go low owned for sure with Madbum and deGrom going tonight. Ultimately I decided the Mariners offense is scarier than the abilities of Graveman. If you know what I mean? So he just missed.

Clay Buchholz is terrible. Probably why he is only $4,500 on DK. That is the price of an OF. Kind of hard to put any faith in him but he has had some really good outings in the past. I will use him in a $3 Moonshot, but that is about it. He stinks.

Quickly, Clay gave me my worst DFS experience of all time. I was in fifth place a few years ago in the $2 Squeeze on FanDuelwith Clay still going in the Sunday night game versus the Yankees. I literally only had to get around five points or so out of him to take first with no one behind me for miles. Even if he had only gone a few innings and netted me something it would have been a huge cash. Instead the creep gave up like seven runs in the first and actually knocked me down to winning mere peanuts. Within minutes my wife took the phone away and we watched something else. 

Good luck today. Check your catchers if they played last night.

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com

I also have an EBay store with some fine sports cards in it, this is the URL: http://stores.ebay.com/jerrysgemmints/