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It must be Saturday because here I am back at it pouring over the splits and matchups to sniff out the best pitching plays of the day. Today we have four top guns going in the form of Felix Hernandez, Jacob deGrom, Jon Lester and Jose Fernandez. After these four players things take a significant drop as far as SPs are concerned.
I have remained ice cold in GPPs as of late. Each night I seem to be nailing my SP but failing to hit on enough bats to cash. I have been holding my own in cash games but otherwise I am still in a quite the slump. The beauty of DFS and having the luxury now of having several seasons under my belt is knowing that any night now as long as I stay my course a big night is coming. They always do…sooner or later.
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Top Cash Game Plays
Since I write these articles on the weekends, for the most part I seem to keep ending up with the same starters on my watch. As a matter of fact, my top cash game play today is the same as last week. Of the four aces going today the only one that did not make the cut was Felix Hernandez. It's not that I find King Felix a particularly bad play I just see no need in cash games to attack the Reds at home in Great American Small Park in a game with an expected run total of eight. Otherwise, the next three all should make decent cash game plays today and your lineups on a two-pitcher site should contain at least one of these players.
Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins
Although Fernandez got off to a rocky start he has looked absolutely amazing as of late. As a matter of fact, over his last two starts versus the Brewers and the very same Nationals he has a 0.64 ERA with 22 strikeouts over 14 innings. He gets a positive park shift pitching at home even though the numbers are up in Miami this season. Although the Nats have the mighty Bryce Harper and a few other dangerous bats, the reality is they actually struggle a little versus RHP. They are striking out 20.5 percent of the time with a .306 wOBA and are 26th in wRC+ versus RHP at 87. They also are only batting .232 over the last seven days. Fernandez has a current K/9 straight out of a video game at 13.03 and Las Vegas has this game pegged with an expected run total of seven, which is among the lowest of the slate. Fernandez gets my call as the top play across the industry today.
Danger Zone
The current Nationals roster is batting .205 off of Fernandez with three HR in a 132 AB with one each by Clint Robinson, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Zimmerman. In this span Fernandez has also struck out 40 batters. I find little to worry about outside of the chance Bryce Harper or Daniel Murphy gets ahold of one.
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
The Milwaukee Brewers suck. How bad? Well let me answer that for you. They are tied for first with the Tampa Bay Rays striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHP with a .330 wOBA. I realize the wOBA seems a little scary but on the road it drops to .313 and they are only batting .221 over the last seven days striking out an insane 28 percent of the time. Although deGrom’s K/9 is down to 5.75 he should have plenty of opportunity to wring some up today. He also gets a great park shift at home in Citi Field which is 18th in runs scored and 25th in HR allowed where he has a 0.75 ERA on the season. His numbers look a little rocky as over his last two starts he has a 3.38 ERA only striking out seven over 13 1/3 innings but keep in mind one of those starts was in Coors Field where he allowed three of them five runs. I find him a much better value on FanDuel today at $10,000 over the $11,400 price tag at DraftKings. Regardless of site he makes a fine cash game play today and I will be using him in at least one lineup.
Danger Zone
The current Brewers roster is only batting .188 off of DeGrom with six strikeouts over 32 plate appearances and no HR. I would not expect a 10 strikeout game but it is reasonable to assume deGrom gives you seven innings of one run ball today with six strikeouts.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
OK, so I know what you are thinking, why attack the Giants? They are only striking out 17.6 percent of the time and have a decent .322 wOBA versus LHP. They also have a nice .332 home wOBA to go with it. With all this information why use Lester? Here is why. Although the sample is small, Lester has dominated the Giants in his limited starts. From 2013-2015, Lester is 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA versus my Dodgers bitter rivals. In his one start at AT&T Park which is 27th in HR allowed in MLB he went 8 1/3 innings giving up six hits and no ER. You add in a Giants team batting .231 over the last seven days and Lester looks pretty good to me. Keep in mind the strikeout totals will not be astounding today.
Danger Zone
I see little to worry about outside of a lack of strikeouts with the current Giants roster batting .239 with no HR and only three XBH over 67 AB of off Lester. I suspect he will be the lowest owned of the big four today and if the others get lit up he could really give you a boost.
Sometimes good things come in pairs (Cash and GPP).
After the big four on the hill I find the drop off in quality significant. As always these plays are better to be paired with a top option on a two-pitcher site in cash games and GPPs.
Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers
First off, I just want to say as a Dodgers fan I absolutely am not a fan of Alex Wood. The mountains in Colorado are less rocky than some of his starts. I just cannot help but pick on the San Diego Padres. Usually, I will not attack the Padres when facing LHP but I am going to make an exception in Woods case today. Alex Wood at home is more often than not a great play in Dodger Stadium. Although Petco Parks offensive numbers are on the rise it is still a pitcher’s park with a horrible team playing in it. Wood today faces a Padres team that is striking out 26 percent of the time with a pathetic .294 wOBA and wRC+ of 84 versus LHP. At home their woes continue coming in at 29th in MLB with a .267 wOBA and they also are colder than Antarctica batting .190 over the last seven. Meanwhile, Wood over his last two starts at home versus the Cardinals and very same Padres has 14 strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings with a 1.46 ERA. He keeps the ball on the ground with a 55.8 percent GB rate and he is my favorite option for a GPP on FanDuel or to pair in cash games on DraftKings with a stud.
Danger Zone
The current Padres roster is 18-for-64 with one HR (Matt Kemp) and 11 strikeouts off of Wood lifetime. Outside of Kemp I really am not worried but there is always the chance Wil Myers also takes him deep but the concern is low.
I honestly see little else worth pairing here today and to try to put another guy in this category in my opinion would be forcing it. After Wood I see another significant drop off into GPP land.
GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.
Of course, any time you take players in this section you are doing so with risk. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.
Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers
Call me a nut but I am going back to the Zach Davies well this week. He is pitching in Citi Field today and benefits from the same park shift DeGrom does facing a Mets team striking out 22.9 percent of the time versus RHP with a .331 wOBA. I know the wOBA seems scary but at home it is only .296 and the Mets also are only batting .228 over the last seven days striking out 26.7 percent of the time. Over his last two starts versus the Padres and Marlins he has allowed four ER over 11 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts. I find him a much better deal on FanDuel at $6,000 where on DraftKings I would rather spend up for Wood than settle for Davies.
Danger Zone
We have little history but the truth is we are still talking about Zach Davies. The New York Mets have the uncanny ability to go from being ice cold to red hot in a matter of moments and can drop a seven run inning if a pitcher loses his command and floats a few over the zone.
Adam Morgan, Philadelphia Phillies (Weather concerns!)
Adam Morgan is a pitcher you should pass right by most days. But not today. Today Morgan faces the Atlanta Braves in the pitcher friendly Citizens Bank Park which is 24th in runs scored and tied with Turner Field for 16th in HR allowed in MLB. The Braves are striking out 23.7 percent of the time, have a .258 wOBA (Dead last in MLB), and come in 30th as well in wRC+ at a pathetic 57 versus LHP on the season. All this says a lefty could throw softballs by them. They do not get much better on the road with a .287 wOBA but have picked things up as of late batting an impressive .279 over the last seven days. In Morgan’s last start versus the beleaguered Braves he allowed one earned run over seven innings striking out four. Not a lot outside of this to talk about here. He is Adam Morgan. Total boom or bust GPP and makes a great play in a large field GPP like the $3 Squeeze on FanDuel or $3 Moonshot on DraftKings. I find him the better GPP play at the price on DraftKings rather than FanDuel.
Danger Zone
The current Braves roster is batting .250 (11-for-44) with one HR and four RBI. I always find it a little concerning when a pitcher has a higher FB rate than GB rate even if only slightly like in Morgan’s case. The reality is outside of the matchup Morgan is a pitcher better left alone.
Good luck today and as always make sure you players are playing. I find the contest selection for single entry on FanDuel deplorable on weekends for the early and late slate so I tend to avoid them. On FanDuel I will play in the early only and late only slates and on DraftKings I will play in the all-day slate only.
| Name | Team | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | AVG | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA vs L | wOBA vs R | FD$ | DK$ | Aces$ |
| Jon Lester | CHC | L | A | SF | 52.2 | 8.72 | 2.05 | 0.85 | 0.206 | 9.3% | 1.88 | 3.22 | 0.97 | 44.0% | 32.8% | 1.34 | 0.269 | 0.246 | $ 11,100 | $ 10,600 | $ 6,500 |
| Jose Fernandez | MIA | R | H | WAS | 47.2 | 13.03 | 4.34 | 0.57 | 0.216 | 14.6% | 3.21 | 2.73 | 1.26 | 38.0% | 29.0% | 1.31 | 0.324 | 0.259 | $ 10,900 | $ 12,500 | $ 6,800 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | R | A | CIN | 51.0 | 7.41 | 3.88 | 0.88 | 0.205 | 8.8% | 2.47 | 4.22 | 1.20 | 52.8% | 29.6% | 1.79 | 0.290 | 0.272 | $ 10,400 | $ 11,000 | $ 7,250 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | R | H | MIL | 36.0 | 5.75 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 0.252 | 10.8% | 2.50 | 3.97 | 1.19 | 49.1% | 30.4% | 1.62 | 0.284 | 0.298 | $ 10,000 | $ 11,400 | $ 6,900 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | R | A | OAK | 51.1 | 8.06 | 1.75 | 1.05 | 0.224 | 12.9% | 3.51 | 3.21 | 1.05 | 55.8% | 27.9% | 2.00 | 0.268 | 0.293 | $ 9,900 | $ 10,300 | $ 6,700 |
| Drew Smyly | TB | L | A | DET | 49.2 | 10.51 | 2.17 | 1.27 | 0.203 | 12.4% | 3.44 | 3.51 | 0.99 | 31.5% | 50.0% | 0.63 | 0.294 | 0.259 | $ 9,300 | $ 10,700 | $ 6,700 |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | R | H | BAL | 29.2 | 6.67 | 3.94 | 2.12 | 0.316 | 9.6% | 8.49 | 5.11 | 1.85 | 33.3% | 38.0% | 0.88 | 0.337 | 0.481 | $ 8,500 | $ 9,100 | $ 5,700 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | L | A | MIN | 50.1 | 5.72 | 2.50 | 1.07 | 0.266 | 8.9% | 3.40 | 4.44 | 1.27 | 43.1% | 33.3% | 1.29 | 0.269 | 0.339 | $ 8,400 | $ 8,100 | $ 6,050 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | R | A | BOS | 34.2 | 9.61 | 3.63 | 1.04 | 0.223 | 11.1% | 3.89 | 3.71 | 1.24 | 48.4% | 33.0% | 1.47 | 0.326 | 0.273 | $ 7,900 | $ 8,700 | $ 6,300 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | R | A | MIA | 41.0 | 6.59 | 2.85 | 0.44 | 0.227 | 9.4% | 2.63 | 4.31 | 1.17 | 42.1% | 33.9% | 1.24 | 0.307 | 0.246 | $ 7,900 | $ 7,900 | $ 6,250 |
| John Lamb | CIN | L | H | SEA | 14.0 | 5.14 | 3.86 | 0.64 | 0.310 | 7.8% | 5.79 | 5.49 | 1.71 | 35.4% | 41.7% | 0.85 | 0.259 | 0.414 | $ 7,700 | $ 6,900 | $ 5,850 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | R | H | TEX | 44.2 | 6.25 | 1.41 | 1.61 | 0.287 | 8.0% | 4.63 | 3.45 | 1.32 | 45.3% | 24.0% | 1.89 | 0.314 | 0.372 | $ 7,700 | $ 7,100 | $ 5,800 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | R | H | CLE | 8.2 | 11.42 | 10.38 | 2.08 | 0.359 | 12.3% | 9.35 | 5.28 | 2.77 | 50.0% | 17.9% | 2.80 | 0.533 | 0.453 | $ 7,600 | $ 5,200 | $ 5,450 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | R | A | LAA | 30.0 | 7.20 | 2.10 | 0.90 | 0.221 | 11.0% | 3.00 | 4.18 | 1.07 | 45.5% | 38.6% | 1.18 | 0.158 | 0.375 | $ 7,500 | $ 7,500 | $ 6,050 |
| Alex Wood | LAD | L | A | SD | 45.1 | 8.34 | 2.98 | 0.99 | 0.250 | 8.9% | 4.17 | 3.65 | 1.30 | 55.8% | 27.1% | 2.06 | 0.395 | 0.280 | $ 7,300 | $ 4,700 | $ 5,750 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | L | H | COL | 46.0 | 6.85 | 3.33 | 2.15 | 0.290 | 7.3% | 5.28 | 4.42 | 1.54 | 50.3% | 30.6% | 1.64 | 0.430 | 0.391 | $ 7,100 | $ 5,100 | $ 5,900 |
| Danny Duffy | KC | L | A | CHW | 21.0 | 11.14 | 3.00 | 0.43 | 0.228 | 19.0% | 2.57 | 3.05 | 1.19 | 40.4% | 36.5% | 1.11 | 0.162 | 0.325 | $ 6,800 | $ 5,500 | $ 5,400 |
| Mike Leake | STL | R | H | ARI | 48.1 | 5.59 | 2.23 | 1.30 | 0.251 | 5.7% | 4.66 | 4.25 | 1.24 | 50.6% | 28.1% | 1.80 | 0.297 | 0.324 | $ 6,600 | $ 6,700 | $ 5,800 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | R | A | PIT | 50.2 | 6.04 | 2.49 | 1.07 | 0.245 | 8.4% | 3.20 | 3.95 | 1.20 | 57.4% | 27.1% | 2.12 | 0.246 | 0.358 | $ 6,500 | $ 8,700 | $ 5,500 |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | L | H | ATL | 19.2 | 6.41 | 3.20 | 0.92 | 0.291 | 10.5% | 6.41 | 4.74 | 1.53 | 35.9% | 39.1% | 0.92 | 0.396 | 0.326 | $ 6,500 | $ 6,100 | $ 5,500 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | L | A | STL | 42.1 | 9.99 | 4.25 | 1.06 | 0.283 | 11.0% | 4.46 | 3.85 | 1.63 | 41.5% | 30.9% | 1.34 | 0.299 | 0.370 | $ 6,400 | $ 7,400 | $ 5,600 |
| Cesar Vargas | SD | R | H | LAD | 25.1 | 7.11 | 4.26 | 1.07 | 0.304 | 9.5% | 3.55 | 4.36 | 1.70 | 50.6% | 26.6% | 1.90 | 0.298 | 0.437 | $ 6,400 | $ 5,800 | $ 5,750 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | R | A | PHI | 26.1 | 4.10 | 3.42 | 0.68 | 0.238 | 5.3% | 4.78 | 4.82 | 1.29 | 61.6% | 26.7% | 2.30 | 0.368 | 0.215 | $ 6,300 | $ 5,700 | $ 5,800 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | R | H | TB | 19.1 | 10.24 | 4.19 | 1.86 | 0.345 | 10.3% | 6.52 | 3.52 | 1.97 | 50.0% | 25.8% | 1.94 | 0.348 | 0.446 | $ 6,300 | $ 7,700 | $ 5,650 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | R | A | NYM | 30.2 | 5.87 | 3.82 | 0.88 | 0.295 | 7.3% | 5.58 | 4.70 | 1.60 | 44.4% | 28.3% | 1.57 | 0.447 | 0.328 | $ 6,000 | $ 7,000 | $ 5,450 |
| Cesar Ramos | TEX | L | A | HOU | 16.2 | 5.94 | 4.32 | 1.62 | 0.319 | 8.2% | 4.32 | 4.73 | 1.80 | 53.4% | 27.6% | 1.94 | 0.373 | 0.402 | $ 5,800 | $ 4,300 | $ 5,250 |
| Matt Cain | SF | R | H | CHC | 46.0 | 6.46 | 2.15 | 1.37 | 0.300 | 7.9% | 5.87 | 4.60 | 1.48 | 32.5% | 40.4% | 0.80 | 0.406 | 0.336 | $ 5,700 | $ 6,200 | $ 5,600 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | R | H | KC | 15.2 | 6.32 | 5.74 | 1.15 | 0.292 | 12.7% | 5.17 | 6.01 | 1.85 | 46.3% | 40.7% | 1.14 | 0.384 | 0.353 | $ 5,600 | $ 6,800 | $ 5,550 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | L | H | NYY | 19.1 | 6.05 | 2.79 | 1.86 | 0.313 | 8.7% | 7.91 | 4.71 | 1.60 | 45.5% | 34.8% | 1.30 | 0.177 | 0.452 | $ 5,600 | $ 7,200 | $ 5,550 |
| Pat Dean | MIN | L | H | TOR | 8.0 | 7.88 | 2.25 | 1.13 | 0.389 | 6.1% | 4.50 | 4.66 | 2.00 | 37.9% | 44.8% | 0.85 | 0.648 | 0.402 | $ 5,000 | $ 4,600 | $ 5,400 |
Go Dodgers!
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