With 11 games on tonight's MLB main slate, we have a LOT to pick from, but sometimes old reliable is the way to go. Old reliable plays in Coors Field tonight and his name is Charlie Blackmon. He faces off with Kyle Gibson who will have to navigate the hardships of pitching in Coors Field tonight. I also like what I'm seeing from Joe Musgrove this year and he faces a Reds lineup striking out a lottttttt. Let's dive into the plays! Who knows, there may even be a bonus NBA play or two in there..

 

 

TOP PLAYS

 

 

Joe Musgrove OVER 6.5 strikeouts

The Padres take on the Reds tonight and send Joe Musgrove to the hill. The Reds have not looked good offensively against right-handed pitching as they’ve posted a team OPS of .531, which is the worst mark in the league.

They also strike out a LOT against right-handed hurlers. The 28.1% K-rate they have against right-handed pitching is the third-highest mark in the league. That’s FIVE-PERCENT higher than it was last year, which shows you who they had in their lineup versus who they have.

Enter Joe Musgrove who has six and eight strikeouts in each of his first two starts and did so in 89 and 74 pitches respectively. Now in his third turn around the rotation, Musgrove may push 100 pitches and that could extend him a few extra batters, which could easily get him over the 6.5 strikeout mark needed here. He’s notched a 27% K-rate or better for two consecutive seasons. He’s a -128 favorite to hit the over here and has done so in five of his last nine starts that he’s thrown at least 90 pitches.

 


Charlie Blackmon OVER 1.5 total bases

I talked about this on the MLB DFS podcast last night. Often when a chalk spot in baseball flops, we don’t look at it the same again, and that could be a big mistake especially when that chalk spot is Coors Field. Kyle Gibson has become a very solid pitcher, but he has his work cut out for him tonight.

Charlie Blackmon hit his first home run of the season on Monday night and has started to look more comfortable at the dish lately. He has hit the over 1.5 total bases in three of four games thanks to either a two-hit game or an extra-base hit outing.

Even in his worst season in a while, 2021, at home against right-handed pitching was his wheelhouse. He hit .285 with an OPS of .836, which was by far his largest number against any pitcher home or away.

Bonus Play(s):

  • Chris Paul o16.5 points
  • Anthony Edwards o24.5 points

RELATED LINKS