Not all profiles come in one shape or size. Context and how a player develops enhances how to predict his future for fantasy. After making a splashy debut in 2019, Austin Riley cratered in the second half once the league made a book on him throwing him fewer fastballs while ramping up sliders and curves against him. It appears this carried over to the start of 2020 as well, but beneath the numbers from last season, Riley adjusted back. 

 

Through the first 18 contests of 2020, Riley hit .150 (9-for-60) with 22 strikeouts against four walks over 65 plate appearances and a paltry .517 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). Then, something clicked for Riley his last 33 games fueling a .281 average (36-for-128) with 27 strikeouts versus 12 walks and a .809 OPS. During 2020, Riley finished with a .281/.328/.632 slash on breaking pitches (sliders and curves) after hitting .195 with 38 of his 86 strikeouts (41.9 percent) during his rookie season. 

 

Overall, Riley finished 2020 with 51 games played, 206 plate appearances, 24 runs, eight home runs, 27 RBI and a .239/.301/.415 slash line in his Age-23 season. He's already been through peaks and valleys in his development with Atlanta. Entering his third season, Riley could be on the precipice of a breakout. Beneath his numbers last year, Riley cut his strikeout percentage by over 12 points, reduced his swinging strike percent by almost six and increased his contact rate by over nine percentage points. Bookmark this information. 

 

According to Statcast, Riley recorded 140 batted ball events with 14 barrels (10 percent), a 91 MPH average exit velocity and 42.9 hard hit rate. His expected statistics which use quality of contact as a predictor suggest Riley incurred some bad luck last season. Riley owned a .262 expected batting average (xBA), a .471 expected slugging (xSLG) and .325 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) which finished 23 points above his actual wOBA. Here's his zone profile for the visual crowd:

 

 

Once again, digging deeper into his in season gains yields some interesting indicators of growth. Riley improved his zone contact by 8.5 percentage points to 79.2 percent along with making more contact outside the zone evidenced by his chase contact also growing by 3.2 percent. He decreased his swing percentage by 2.1 percent and his whiff rate fell by over eight percentage points. Riley produced more ground balls in 2020 yet raised his line drive percentage slightly. 

 

One of his similar hitter profiles on Statcast proves intriguing, Brandon Lowe 's results from 2019. It's quite possible Riley takes the consolidation of his skill set into 2021 which could result in a spike in power. Of Riley's nine home runs in the Statcast data bank last year, seven rated as no-doubters (out of any ballpark), a robust 77.8 percent of them. Over the last two years, Riley's hit 27 actual home runs with 15 of them also of the no-doubter category (55.6 percent). 

 

Still, it's the gains Riley displayed in some key areas on Statcast contained in the chart below for your perusal:

 

Category

2019

2020

Difference

xBA

.225

.262

+37 points

xSLG

.461

.471

+10 points

Whiff%

38.7

30.1

-8.6 percent

In Zone Swing%

43.6

48.1

+4.5 percent

Out of Zone Swing%

56.4

51.9

-4.5 percent

K%

36.4

23.8

-12.6 percent

 

For his career, Riley's generated 308 batted ball events with 37 barrels (12 percent), a .240 xBA, .465 xSLG and 43.8 hard hit rate. Through 131 major league games, Riley owns a .232/.288/.448 slash with a 6.4 walk percentage and 31.2 strikeout rate but it ignores his improved discipline metrics from last year. 

 

If Riley truly breaks out in 2021, it happens because of the components highlighted in the chart above along with his power indicators. Due to his volatility within his first two seasons in the majors, many may treat Riley with caution. This next chart displays his first two halves of 2019 along with last year split by his first 18 and last 33 contests: 

 

 

Projecting Riley to produce his sizable improvements in the last 33 games last year over a full one feels a bit too aggressive, however, when viewing his projection sets for 2021, he can reach or outdistance them with simple migration to the mean of his career expected numbers to this point:

 

 

Viewing these numbers, the systems take note of last year's progressive gains but not fully. Check out Riley's rolling chart with some key points of growth:

 

 

Prior to game 120 overall, Riley moved his walk rate over his strikeout percentage for the first time in the majors. He cannot do this over a season, but a reduction of his strikeouts to 25 percent or lower with more contact in the strike zone means a power boost may ensue for Riley in his Age-24 season. There's a chance Riley hits 30 or more home runs with a .250 or better average. If this happens, he's a steep bargain at his present price point. Target Riley for power upside and profit if he carries the discipline gains to 2021. 

 

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

THE BAT X and THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborks