Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

 

Total: 8

 

Dodgers -130

Since 1997, 19 of the last 22 teams who won Game 1 of the World Series went on to win the championship. Of course, the last team not to accomplish the feat, Los Angeles who also won Game 1 versus Houston in 2017. Despite this, it’s tough to ignore the 62.6 percent of teams winning the Fall Classic after taking the first game since the inception of the World Series. 

Tampa Bay will send Blake Snell to the mound hoping to even the series. Snell owns two pitches which work well versus the Dodgers but he faces a lineup starting to heat up at the right time. During the regular season, Los Angeles recorded the fourth lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching (20.7 percent) while walking in 11.1 percent of their plate appearances with a .335 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Snell could succeed tonight, but if the Dodgers push up the pitch count, he may not log more than five innings which caps his upside in a showdown slate. 

MVP/CAPTAIN

Mookie Betts, OF LAD - Not only did Betts provide free tacos for the nation, he homered, scored two runs and stole two bases in a Game 1 for the ages. Betts joined Chase Utley (2008) as the only players in the World Series to homer along with stealing two bases. Unlike many of his teammates, Betts has faced Snell often in the past going 7-for-23 with two doubles and one home run during their careers. Betts .362 expected batting average and .597 expected slugging may make him the top option in tonight’s slate once again. In case you’re worried Betts may not run on a lefty, he’s a perfect 42-for-42 stealing versus LHP in his career. 

Randy Arozarena, OF TB - A quiet debut in the World Series going hitless in three at-bats and drawing a walk. Arozarena carried this offense on his back in the ALCS and hit seven home runs this postseason with 24 runs plus RBI along with a .362/.422/.810 slash line. It’s going to be a bullpen game for the Dodgers but if Arozarena runs into one fastball, he will pay off his price point. 

A.J. Pollock, OF LAD - There’s some risk here since Pollock could leave the game as it progresses, but he absolutely raked against southpaws in the regular season. Pollock hit a robust .345/.367/.818 against LHP with five doubles, seven home runs and 15 RBI in only 55 at-bats. Snell can generate strikeouts but also provides too much traffic on the bases which puts Pollock’s ability to crush fastballs at the precipice of a breakout game. 

Mid-Tier

Will Smith, C LAD - Carried over his hot bat from September to the postseason, Smith will bat fifth in a deep lineup tonight. He improved his average to .294 with five doubles against LHP in the regular season. Traffic on the bases along with Smith’s ability to produce in pressure situations makes him a nice target with a safe floor with room for upside. 

Manuel Margot, OF TB - Only hit one home run in the regular season but five in postseason, Margot’s been a quiet contributor to the Rays offense. Through 14 games he’s hitting .256 with a .605 slugging percentage driving in 11 runs while scoring eight. Plus, he could take a page from the Betts playbook and attempt a stolen base if given a chance tonight to generate RBI opportunities for his teammates. 

Corey Seager, SS LAD - Became the fourth player in Dodger history to walk three times during a game in the World Series. Seager also stole a base on the backside of a double steal with Betts. His six home runs leads Los Angeles this postseason and he launched four home runs against LHP in the regular season over 69 at-bats. Snell yielded a .457 slugging percentage and a home run per fly ball percent of 30 against left-handed hitters in the regular season. Also like Max Muncy who hit four home runs against LHP in the regular season with as many walks as strikeouts in his plate appearances facing them. 

Dart Throw

Julio Urias, SP LAD - Hear me out, Tony Gonsolin will make the start, but only lasted two innings on Sunday and will be working on short rest. If Julio Urias pitches second, he could be in line for the win bonus (four points on Draft Kings). His price tag remains hefty ($9.8K), but he represents a low owned dart in GPP’s. Urias owns a 4-0 record this postseason with a 0.56 ERA, 0.63 WHIP and 16:3 K:BB through 16 innings of work.

Ji-Man Choi, 1B TB - Batting cleanup in tonight’s lineup, Choi’s slashing .290/.436/.516 this postseason with two home runs and a .406 wOBA in 13 games. He seems to own a penchant for the big moment and if the Rays can even the series, Choi may be in the midst of it.

Please remember, these are EXAMPLE lineups on how to build lineups for tonight’s slate. They are not simply plug and play ones.