Building a strong foundation early in drafts allows one to take chances as it progresses. With this in mind, maximizing late round value comes into play trying to win a fantasy baseball championship. In this article, we will be using NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) Drafts Champions average draft position data from the start of December through January 13th as a guide to late round targets. Players taken after the 15th round at each position that could breakout or provide category impact over the course of the 2020 season is the key to long term success. There’s a mix of rookies, bounce back veterans, and players who failed to reach expectations in the prior season but own the skill set to return value compared to their present price point. To help you with your draft preparation, five players at each position will be highlighted. 

Catcher

Sean Murphy , Oakland - 234.04 ADP - Nothing draws in fantasy owners more than a young catcher with potential power upside. This year, it will be Murphy. He launched four home runs in his first 60 plate appearances with Oakland last year along with a palatable .245/.333/.566 slash line. Murphy also hit ten homers in only 140 plate appearances at Triple-A. Keying on Murphy’s 90.7 MPH average exit velocity from his 2019 sample and 85.7 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage to help him reach his Steamer projection of 14 home runs over 358 projected plate appearances in 2020. If he can hit .250, it’s gravy as a second catcher in fantasy. 

Tom Murphy , Seattle - 266.21 ADP - Murphy recorded a .277/.344.532 slash line in the second half of last season with nine home runs in only 40 games. More importantly, Murphy finished with a 9.6 walk percentage and 26.9 strikeout rate after the All-Star break with an eye popping .255 isolated power. It’s a complex profile, but he could hit 25 home runs this year. 

Danny Jansen , Toronto - 286.25 ADP - After being a popular target in 2019, Jansen cratered to a .207/.279/.360 slash line in 107 games with Toronto. He did hit 13 home runs with 41 runs and 43 RBI. Focus on his 40.9 fly ball rate, 88.7 MPH average exit velocity, 16.1 launch angle and 40 percent hard hit percentage. Regression to the mean could translate to a .250-ish average with 15 home runs in 2020. 

Jason Castro , Los Angeles Angels - 438.86 ADP - Beneath the Mitch Garver breakout, Jason Castro recorded career highs in fly ball percentage (39.3 percent), hard hit percent (46.4) and average exit velocity (91.5 MPH). Yes, he traded some plate discipline but playing in Angels Stadium he’s capable of 18-to-20 home runs with 350-plus plate appearances. If he hits closer to his expected batting average (.249) and expected slugging (.521), there’s much to like at a very low cost. 

Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati - 673.43 ADP - Representing the slow burn investment, Stephenson could take over catching duties once the Super-2 date lapses for the Reds. He hit .285/.372/.410 in 89 games at Double-A last season with a 10.2 walk percentage. His power may take time to emerge but he’s armed with a 41.4 fly ball rate and upside going forward. 

First Base

Daniel Murphy , Colorado - 237.25 ADP - Perhaps the name of this article should be the Dropkick Murphy’s? Regardless, last year, Murphy played through an index finger injury suffered in April. However, he entered last season with a robust .325/.374/.539 slash over his prior 380 games with 60 home runs, 239 RBI and ten stolen bases. His Steamer projection for 2019 of 81 runs, 22 home runs and 86 RBI did not materialize, nor did his projected .305/.360/.506 slash. But keep this tucked away late in drafts. It’s within the realm of outcomes. He’s essentially a fantasy free space. 

C.J. Cron , Detroit - 264.70 ADP - He’s a Statcast Hero, got stars in his eyes..wait, this will not be a Foreigner song, but overlooking Cron due to signing with Detroit could be a mistake. He blasted 25 home runs in under 500 plate appearances last year with a .253/.311/.469 slash line. According to Statcast, Cron recorded a robust barrel percentage of 15 while increasing his average exit velocity over three MPH to 91 with a .277 xBA, .548 xSLG and 44.6 hard hit percent. His 53 barrels ranked 16th in the majors despite appearing in only 125 contests. Steamer projects 28 home runs with a slash slightly above last season. Not too shabby. He could still hit 30 home runs despite his home ballpark if he pulls the ball and avoids the cavern in center field. 

Renato Núñez , Baltimore - 272.18 ADP - Not sure people realize Nunez hit 31 home runs with 90 RBI in 2019. He also scored 72 runs with a 40.6 hard hit percentage, upped his contact in the zone by 5.3 points and reduced his whiff percent by four on Statcast. Any carry over in discipline makes Nunez an intriguing late round pivot for power if desperate at first base or corner infield. Odds remain high many will be in this boat. 

Ryan Mountcastle , Baltimore - 392.47 ADP - Early reports indicate the Orioles may finally admit the Chris Davis contract should be eaten to give Mountcastle a look at first base. In 127 games at Triple-A in 2019, he hit .312/.344/.527 with 81 runs, 25 home runs, 83 RBI and two stolen bases. He’s notched back-to-back seasons with an on-base percentage above 34 with burgeoning power. Track him very close in the spring. 

Justin Smoak , Milwaukee - 442.29 ADP – He is a veteran hitter coming off an injury riddled season who transitions to a ballpark suited for a rebound. Fantasy owners, meet Justin Smoak . His average cratered to .208 last year but he recorded a 15.8 walk percentage with a 21.2 strikeout rate and .198 isolated power playing hurt. Smoak still cranked out 34 barrels (11 percent of his batted ball events) with an average exit velocity of 90.3 MPH and a 16.8 launch angle. A fly ball hitter with control of the strike zone heads to Miller Park? Yes, please! 

Second Base

Rougned Odor , Texas - 231 ADP - Only ten players finished with at least 30 home runs, 90 RBI and ten or more stolen bases. Of course, Rougned Odor ’s the only one to hit .205 among them. He turned things around in the second half to finish above the Mendoza line but can he be trusted? Odor recorded 346 batted ball events with 47 barrels (13.6 percent) a .229 expected batting average and .468 expected slugging. He hit 50 points lower in xBA versus fastballs in 2019 and finished with an average below .210 in two of the last three years, which is a concern. If he migrates anywhere near his .253 average from 2018, his value increases incrementally. Feeling lucky? 

Mauricio Dubon , San Francisco - 321.14 ADP - Players who can steal bases while providing some power will be very sought after in 2020 drafts. Mauricio Dubon flashed each during his 30 game debut with the Giants. Looking into his Triple-A numbers over three seasons, Dubon hit .299/.339/.474 at the level with 140 runs, 30 home runs, 107 RBI and 23 stolen bases (40 attempts) in 208 contests. He did well with making contact in the zone, but his swings and misses outside of it could make him a streaky player. Dubon’s Steamer projection settles in the middle predicting 136 games, 556 plate appearances, 55 runs, 14 home runs, 58 RBI, 13 stolen bases and a .266/.305/.403 slash. 

Robinson Canó , New York Mets - 331.93 ADP – Are you seeing a theme here with bounce back veterans? Cano only appeared in 107 games in 2019 with 46 runs, 13 home runs and 39 RBI. He only hit .256/.307/.428 but finished with a 90.8 MPH average exit velocity, which was in the top-50 of the majors. Cano could hit in the heart of the order again and Steamer foresees a rebound to a .271/.327/.448 line with 20 home runs in 565 plate appearances for 2020. 

Shed Long , Seattle - 430.96 ADP - Long hit safely in ten of his last 16 contests of 2019 with nine multi-hit efforts among them. Long is one season removed from hitting 12 home runs with 19 stolen bases at Double-A, and could hit near the top of the lineup with the Mariners this year. Steamer projects him for 11 home runs with seven steals in only 95 games. He could easily surpass each with enough playing time. In fact, he could replicate a similar line to Dubon with a 100 pick discount. If Long hits near the top of the lineup, runs could also be a bonus. 

Brendan Rodgers, Colorado - 447.86 ADP - One of these years the Rockies will just turn their prospects loose. No, that is being serious. If a rebuild occurs, it’s time to find out what Brendan Rodgers can do. He’s coming off of shoulder surgery, so the power may take until the second half to flash, but ZiPS predicts Rodgers to play in 95 games with 48 runs, 13 home runs, 48 RBI, four stolen bases and a .275/.328/.453. Use this as his floor if he achieves playing time early on. But he can exceed this given the chance. 

Third Base

BrIan Anderson , Miami - 246.21 ADP - Anderson benefit from the fences moving in at his home park, and he’s an underrated commodity in fantasy circles. Anderson enters his power peak with an improved launch angle, stable average exit velocity, and a more friendly ballpark for his batted ball profile. He could hit 25 home runs with seven pocket stolen bases and a .270 or better batting average.

Starlin Castro , Washington - 299.18 ADP – Castro surged in the second half to finish with a very respectable .270/.300/.436 line with 68 runs, 22 home runs and 86 RBI. If he can maintain the improved contact percentage and over 90 percent Z-Contact rates displayed last year, Castro could turn in another quietly productive season. Just do not expect another level extrapolating his numbers after the break over a full year.  

Travis Shaw , Toronto - 374.5 ADP - Shaw’s one year removed from 32 home runs, 86 RBI and five stolen bases in 152 games. He hit .241/.345/.480 with a 13.3 walk percentage and 18.4 strikeout rate. Before last year’s injury riddled disappointment, Shaw entered 2019 with a median projection of .256/.340/.485 slash with 29 home runs and 88 RBI. If Shaw hits well in spring and adjusts his swing back to his 2018 approach, he’s a potential steal for power upside late in drafts. 

Maikel Franco , Kansas City - 419.75 ADP - Perhaps a fresh start with the Royals will unlock some of Franco’s hidden talents. He notched a career low swinging strike percentage (9.9 percent), and his best contact rate of 80 percent last season while raising his launch angle by five degrees. Franco’s 8.4 walk percentage and 14.3 strikeout percent suggest he could benefit from a change in scenery. Remember, Jorge Soler unlocked his power in 2019, could Franco be next? If he does, 25 home runs could be in the offing. 

Bobby Dalbec, Boston - 531.39 ADP - Here’s the Hail Mary at third base. Boston could turn over some of the roster at some point this season opening the door for Dalbec possibly at first base. He launched 27 home runs with 73 RBI and six steals in the minors last year. His career slash of .261/.362/.505 over 383 games hints at some on-base skills with power upside lurking. 

Shortstop 

Dansby Swanson , Atlanta - 236.25 ADP - A tale of two seasons masks a possible mini-breakout for Swanson. Before his heel injury on July 23rd, he played 98 games with 431 plate appearances, 64 runs, 21 doubles, 17 home runs, 57 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .265/.330/.368 slash. After his injury, Swanson appeared in 27 games accruing 114 plate appearances with 13 runs, five doubles, no home runs, eight RBI and a woeful .194/.307/.245 line. The good news is, Swanson raised his barrel percentage by six points, upped his average exit velocity by three MPH (89.8 in 2019) and recorded a 14.2 degree average launch angle. Steamer sees him scoring 70 runs with 18 home runs, 69 RBI (nice), 10 stolen bases, and a .253/.325/.416 slash. This represents a nice floor with the potential for more counting statistics if healthy over a full season. 

Willy Adames , Tampa Bay - 281.25 ADP - If Adames would only hit at home like he did on the road, his breakout happens last year. He did hit 20 home runs with 52 RBI and four steals with a respectable .254/.317/.418 line in 2019. Fantasy players are hoping Adames can make better contact with more power as he ages. Perhaps 23-to-25 home runs with his average going into the .260’s? Maybe even a little more. 

Luis Urías , Milwaukee - 309.14 ADP - Urias will get the chance to become the starting shortstop for Milwaukee. Translation, Urias could be worth a flier in the later rounds of deeper formats. He cratered last season hitting only .223/.329/.326 over 71 games, but also hit .315/.398/.600 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League with 19 home runs in only 73 contests. 

José Peraza , Boston - 368.14 ADP - Peraza does not jump off the page, especially after disappointing in 2019 with a .239 average and only seven steals. However, he swiped at least 20 bases in each of the prior three seasons (2016-2018), signed with Boston, and could rebound at a steep discount. With owners searching for cheap steals, Peraza is one to keep in your back pocket. 

Jorge Mateo , Oakland - 435.04 ADP - Speaking of speed, Mateo’s career high of 82 steals across two levels in 2015. Last year, Mateo added power, like most of baseball, with 19 home runs, 78 RBI and 24 stolen bases in 119 games at Triple-A. His .289/.330/.504 slash looks enticing as well. There’s no guarantee Oakland will give Mateo a shot to win the second base job for the upcoming season. But, if he does, Mateo could be a fantasy league winner if he gets 12-to-14 home runs with 20 or more steals. 

Outfield

Shin-Soo Choo , Texas - 250.64 ADP – Choo is overlooked every year. Boring profiles like the dependable Choo do not present teeming upside, but he scored 93 runs with 24 home runs, 61 RBI and 15 stolen bases with a .265/.371/.455 slash line in 2019. Choo owned the 27th best average exit velocity (91.3 MPH) along with a 49 hard hit rate according to Statcast. Steamer projects him for 92 runs, 23 home runs, 69 RBI (nice), 10 stolen bases and a .255/.356/.431 line. Please keep letting him fall. 

Mark Canha , Oakland - 284.68 ADP – Canha rode a path of playing time to success in the second half. Canha ended 2019 with a .273.396/.517 line with 80 runs, 26 home runs, 58 RBI and three stolen bases. He lowered his O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) by over five percent, racked up a 41.1 hard hit rate with a 15 degree launch angle. Not sure he can fully repeat, but Canha’s an intriguing play to find out with a depressed price. 

Kevin Pillar , Free Agent - 294.39 ADP - Much like Choo above, Kevin Pillar continues to produce in fantasy with little fanfare. Appearing in 161 games, Pillar scored 83 runs with 21 home runs, 88 RBI, 14 stolen bases and a .259/.287/.432 line. He increased his contact rate by 4.3 percent and does represent a compiler portfolio, but his glove will keep him a lineup. Steamer sees him getting 14 home runs with 10 stolen bases and a .264 average in only 455 plate appearances. Again, he is a nice floor play with a chance for upside. 

Ian Happ , Chicago Cubs - 336.54 ADP - It’s easy to chalk up Happ to a Quad-A player, but he could be primed for a breakout in 2020. Happ hit 11 home runs in only 58 games with the Cubs last year with 30 RBI and a tolerable .264/.333/.564 line. During 99 games at Triple-A, Happ hit 16 home runs with nine stolen bases. So, combining his two categories, Happ hit 27 home runs with 11 steals across two levels. Steamer projects 21 home runs with seven steals and a .238/.332/.444 line, and you can bet on the over in all of these categories. 

Teoscar Hernández , Toronto - 349.21 ADP - Like Cron earlier, Hernandez seemed like he disappointed last year but surged in Statcast data. Hernandez hit .230/.306/.472 with 26 home runs, 65 RBI and six steals. But, he recorded a 42.3 hard hit rate, 91.1 MPH average exit velocity and 15.5 degree launch angle. If Hernandez could trade some ground balls for line drives and a few more home runs, 30 dingers with a .245 average could transpire. 

Starting Pitcher

Adrian Houser , Milwaukee - 263.39 ADP - Slated to be in the Brewers rotation for 2020, Houser depresses hard hits against very well. He ranked in the top ten percent of pitchers last year with an average exit velocity against of 86 MPH and minuscule 4.4 degree launch angle versus his arsenal. Houser notched a 34.5 strikeout percentage with his four-seam fastball and a 29.2 strikeout percent with his curve. If his slider improves, Houser could be a nice investment. 

Aaron Civale, Cleveland - 287.18 ADP - Civale won three of his 10 starts in 2019 with a 2.34 ERA, 4.61 xFIP and 1.04 WHIP over 57.2 innings with Cleveland. He yielded four barrels of his 164 batted ball events against using his cutter, slider and change-up to keep hitters off balance. Set to be the fourth starter, Civale could be a sneaky play for savvy owners, especially if he uses more change-ups in the year ahead. 

Dylan Bundy , Los Angeles Angels - 295.36 ADP - Hope lies in Bundy’s ground ball rate rising by 7.5 percent last season while reducing fly balls by over eight percent. Getting out of the American League East, elevating fastballs, and a fresh start fuel the intrigue with Bundy. Plus, using more sliders and getting either his change-up or curve to be a reliable third option could unlock the door for 185 or more strikeouts. Yes, you heard me. 

Austin Voth , Washington - 372.82 ADP -  Voth is out of options, so he needs to make the Nationals. If he wins the fifth spot in the rotation, he could do very well in 2020. Voth owned a strikeout percentage of 40 with his curve with a 48.3 whiff rate. He also fared well with a 28.6 strikeout percent with his slider and a 42.9 whiff percent. 

Brad Keller , Kansas City - 423.75 ADP - Although Keller only won seven of his 21 decisions last season, he turned a corner in the second half. After the break, Keller worked 54.2 innings with a 3.62 ERA, 45:15 K:BB and 1.17 WHIP upping his strikeout percentage to 20.1 percent and tripling his strikeouts minus walks percentage. Throwing more four-seam fastballs unlocked the door to his surge. If his slider continues to develop, Keller could translate his 50 percent ground ball rate to further success. 

Relief Pitcher 

Drew Pomeranz , San Diego - 402.89 ADP - As a reliever, 18 of Pomeranz’s 20 appearances were scoreless. In 26.1 innings, Pomeranz yielded 11 hits, three earned runs and four walks with 36 strikeouts. He saved two games with Milwaukee and during his career as a reliever, Pomeranz owns a 2.72 ERA with a 140:41 K:BB in 115.2 innings, a 1.09 WHIP and 3.22 xFIP. In September, Pomeranz four seam fastball racked up a 54.3 strikeout percentage, 2.9 walk rate and 44.6 whiff percentage. With his curve, Pomeranz recorded a .045 expected batting average, strikeout percentage of 50 and a 47.1 whiff rate. 

Kevin Ginkel, Arizona - 479.57 ADP - With a caveat of not trusting Archie Bradley to keep the closer role all season, owners can take a late flier on Kevin Ginkel. He won three games with two saves for Arizona in only 25 outings spanning 24.1 innings last year. He only allowed two barrels of 58 batted ball events. Armed with a wicked slider, Ginkel racked up a 44.4 strikeout percentage with the pitch along with a 44.9 whiff percent while owning a .075 batting average against. When viewing his stat line, key on his 62 strikeouts versus 13 walks in the minors prior to his promotion. 

Robert Stephenson , Cincinnati - 525.82 ADP - Over his last 24 appearances, Stephenson owned a 1.38 ERA in 26 innings with a 28:7 K:BB. His ERA in this span was the best in the National League and third in the majors. With his late season emergence, Stephenson could be a ratio eraser flying well below the radar. If anything happened to Raisel Iglesias , Stephenson gets even more interesting. 

Rowan Wick , Chicago Cubs - 556.25 ADP - When trying to figure out relievers to stash late, note potential volatile locations. Craig Kimbrel did not light the fantasy world on fire with his rough outings and elbow soreness last year. Wick recorded two saves with a 2.43 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 33.1 innings with Chicago last year. He did this once he dropped the cutter for more curves and sliders for more strikeouts. If Wick could reduce his walk percentage and Kimbrel misses time, Wick could pay dividends. 

Joely Rodriguez , Texas - 669.14 ADP - Trusting a closer with a 13 percent walk rate can be tricky. José Leclerc ’s talented but volatile. Enter Joely Rodriguez

Whether adding Rodriguez late as a flier or a handcuff to LeClerc, do not forget his name as a walk-off pick in drafts for 2020. 

Honorable mention to players like Rick Porcello , Cole Hamels and Scott Oberg who easily could make the lists. Best of luck surviving drafts and be sure to pack the queue with viable targets who could return value compared to their investment cost. 

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Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MiLB.com

Baseball-Reference.com