Not only did the Yankees trade for a prolific power hitter from the Cubs for a reliever, the Royals added Jorge Soler for Wade Davis prior to the 2017 season. Injuries and not living up to the hype seemed to create doubt about Soler, but he’s putting things together this season. Currently, Soler ranks second in the American League in home runs trailing some guy named Mike Trout . Despite an erratic offense, Soler’s 88 RBI place him fifth in the American League as well.

Riding a hot August in which Soler leads the majors with a 1.444 on-base plus slugging percentage and ranks second in both on-base percentage (.533) and slugging (.911) with a robust .378 average (17-for-48). Believe it or not, Soler will soon own the Kansas City single-season home run record held by Mike Moustakas (38 in 2017). Soler’s slashing .259/.351/.549 over 448 at-bats in 125 games with 69 runs, 35 home runs, 88 RBI and a stolen base. He’s presently on pace for 46 home runs with 113 RBI. Not too shabby. 

How’s Soler accomplishing this and can he carry it over? For starters, health can be considered a skill and Soler is in uncharted territory in the majors with 125 games this season. It can be risky to trust a player going forward, but the power is for real. 

According to Statcast data, Soler ranks fifth in baseball with 52 barrels this year and 11th in average exit velocity (92.4 MPH). He’s producing a hard hit (exit velocity of 95 MPH-plus) 48.4-percent of his batted ball events with a 16.5-barrel-percentage. His expected statistics support his breakout with a .268 expected batting average, .561 expected slugging and .390 expected weighted on-base average. It’s scary to think, but there’s a chance for positive migration to the mean for Soler over the last six weeks of the season. Courtesy of Statcast, here’s Soler’s zone profiles this year with his expected numbers included:

One of the biggest contributors to his success this year, Soler’s improved his plate discipline metrics:

  • Soler’s cut his swinging strike percentage from 15.4-percent in 2017 to 12.9-percent this year. 

  • He’s making more contact (70.5-percent) versus last year (64.8-percent), plus he’s increased his Z-Contact (contact in the strike zone) by 4.2-percent. 

  • In terms of swings and misses at pitches outside the strike zone, Soler’s improved by 2.2-percent in this category as well. 

Transitioning to his batted ball data on Fangraphs, Soler’s traded fly balls hitting them 39.2-percent of the time while reducing his ground ball rate to 40.8-percent, down six percent compared to last year. Like almost all hitters in baseball, Soler’s home run per fly ball percentage spikes to 28.1-percent. Last year, Soler recorded a 17-percent home run per fly ball rate. Better discipline, improved contact, and more batted balls in the air while increasing his home run rate, very intriguing.

Hitters who breakout with power but totally reliant on pulling the ball disappoint in the following season. This will be important for Soler and it’s encouraging to see his spray chart not reflective of this trait: 

More encouraging, Soler’s heat map from Statcast reflective of his batted balls in play as fly balls and line drives this season: 

Pitchers may catch on to Soler hunting first-pitch fastballs. He’s launched 11 of his 35 home runs on first pitches this year. In fact, Soler owns a 1.019 slugging percentage when putting the first pitch into play in 2019. Perhaps hitting him second next year would provide Soler more fastballs to hunt with teammate Whit Merrifield on base, but Adalberto Mondesi may block him. No matter, Soler seems on his way to setting the Kansas City team record for home runs and could be the first player in franchise history with a 40 home run season. Track his usage of center and the opposite field the rest of the way before marking this as an outlier season. Perhaps, Soler’s just getting started in his power prime. He will likely never hit over .270, but reaching base more than 35-percent of the time with a slugging percentage approaching .600 will play in the years ahead.

Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com - Game Notes