It’s not due to a lack of trying, but this week’s Behind the Breakout will focus on half of the surging left side of the infield in Boston. Rafael Devers continues to rake this year leading the majors with 31 RBI in July becoming the youngest Red Sox to record at least 30 since Ted Williams drove in 36 in August of 1939 (ESPN Stats and Info). Devers also represents one of two American League players with a .305 average, 20 home runs and 75 RBI, the other, teammate Xander Bogaerts . 

Homering for the third straight home game, Devers matched his career high in home runs with 21. He’s also in the midst of a six game hit streak during which he’s hitting .333 with eight runs, three doubles, two home runs, eight RBI and two walks. Devers, Bogaerts and Mike Trout represent the only three players in the majors with at least 80 runs and RBI. With 40 multi-hit games, Devers owns a .323/.376/.569 slash line along with leading the majors with 169 batted balls with an exit velocity of 95+ MPH. All of this contributes to Devers ranks in the American League entering game play on July 26th: 

  • Tied for second in runs (82)

  • Third in doubles (31) and extra-base hits (55)

  • Fifth in on-base plus slugging percentage (.945) and slugging (.569)

After 101 games, Devers has increased his isolated power by 57 points compared to last year. He’s traded line drives for fly balls with no ill effects in his results along with decreasing his strikeout percentage by over nine percent. With a slight increase in his pull percentage, it’s not too much to worry about since he uses the whole field, especially the middle and right-center field most: 

Transitioning to his spray chart, Devers increased power can be attributed to using the whole field as can be seen in this graphic courtesy of Statcast: 

Continuing with Statcast data, Devers ranks third in the majors with an average exit velocity of 92.9 MPH. His expected statistics align well with his season to this point with a .304 expected batting average, .526 expected slugging percent and .376 expected weighted on-base average. His hard hit percentage of 50 percent sits higher than his total on Fangraphs. 

Perusing Devers rest-of-the-season statistics, a collapse does not lie in the offing. Here’s his numbers from three different sites: 

  • ZiPS: 200 at-bats, 33 runs, 10 home runs, 35 RBI, three stolen bases, .286/.340/.512 slash line

  • Steamer: 191 at-bats, 31 runs, 10 home runs, 33 RBI, four stolen bases, .294/.350/.525

  • THE BAT: 199 at-bats, 33 runs, 11 home runs, 33 RBI, three stolen bases, .294/.351/.538

Seeing the slash lines so close by Steamer and THE BAT should encourage owners benefiting from Devers breakout season. Credit also goes to our own Jim Bowden who predicted a strong season from Devers in March. Breakouts come in many forms, but with the underlying data supporting Devers numbers though 101 games, a 30-plus home run season with an average near .300 seems well within reach. Suffice it to say, Devers will not be rostered at a discount in 2020 drafts. 

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com - Game Notes

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

Steamerprojections.com