During the spring, the young arms in the Marlins rotation gained popularity due to their strong results. Caleb Smith could be emerging as the ace of this evolving staff. Smith has won three of his first six starts with a 2.00 ERA, 3.00 xFIP and 0.83 WHIP. He’s also racked up 45 strikeouts in 36 innings against nine walks for a 26.9 strikeouts minus walks percentage. Smith’s limited hitters to a .168 batting average against which ranks fifth among all starting pitchers.

According to the Marlins, Smith’s first six starts rank highly in the the franchise’s history. Only Josh Johnson (2011) and Dontrelle Willis (2005) recorded a lower ERA through their first six starts. Smith also ranks second in batting average against and in WHIP. Entering his start versus the Cubs, Smith leads all qualified starters in WHIP while placing fourth in ERA and third in swinging strike percentage (34.9 percent).

Smith’s underlying data reinforces his surge at the onset of 2019. He’s increased his swinging strike percentage by 5.2 percent, upped his O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) by over seven percent and reduced contact by almost eight percentage points. Here’s a look at these categories along with his xFIP since the start of last year:

Through six starts last year, Smith owned a 4.40 ERA with 41 strikeouts against 15 walks while winning only one of his four decisions. With a depressed batting average against and Smith’s also lowered the average exit velocity of batted balls in play to 84.7 MPH, his breakout seems imminent. But, how’s he doing it?

For starters, Smith’s tweaked his pitch usage throwing fewer four-seam fastballs while deploying more change-ups. During a season when hard hit rates continue to rise across the fantasy landscape, Smith’s lowered his hard hit percentage to 26.3 percent this year compared to 33.7 percent yielded in 2018. As his data from Statcast suggests, the change in his approach helps keep hitters off balance:

Last season, Smith threw his four-seam almost 59 percent of his pitches compared to his change-up usage of 13.7 percent. Even with some regression, which will happen, Smith’s expected rates do not suggest a future collapse. Just normal migration to the mean. Plus, Smith’s change-up only generated a strikeout percentage of 14 percent in 2018 and whiff percentage slightly above eight. Check out his improvement with the pitch above.

By throwing more change-ups, it unlocks his four-seam. Smith’s also producing more ground balls this year with fewer line drives. Always a crowd pleaser. For an idea of his arsenal, check out his pitch plot maps over his last 36 innings:

Knowing regression will be inevitable, how Will Smith do the rest of the season? For an idea, here’s how his projected numbers from THE BAT and Steamer look with his season totals so far added in could look like at the end of 2019:

  • Smith’s THE BAT final projection: nine wins, 162 innings, 3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 191 strikeouts

  • Smith’s Steamer final projection: 10 wins, 159 innings, 3.34 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 185 strikeouts

There’s no guarantee these numbers will occur, but, with both being so similar, it appears “K-leb” Smith in the midst of his breakout. Any speculative drafter would sign on for the above final line in the preseason from Smith. Heed the evolution within his arsenal along with his propensity to generate strikeouts when valuing Smith going forward. It appears he’s here to stay.

 

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

ROS projections courtesy of: THE BAT by Derek Carty, Steamerprojections.com

MLB.com - game notes