Perhaps teams took the winter solstice to heart in an effort to stoke the hot stove. After the three-way trade for Jurickson Profar occurred, two more deals with fantasy ramifications transpired. First, the Dodgers traded Yasiel Puig , Matt Kemp , Alex Wood and cash to the Reds for Homer Bailey , Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. Due to the fact Los Angeles will just release Bailey, he will not be profiled later on. Buster Olney called this a “money laundering” move by the Dodgers who created space under the cap to either trade for Corey Kluber and/or J.T. Realmuto , along with pursuing Bryce Harper .

Under-the-radar Seattle, shocker, traded Ben Gamel and prospect Noah Zavolas to Milwaukee for Domingo Santana . Having been blocked by the additions of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich , a fresh start and a clear path to playing time should bolster the fantasy status of Santana. Each teams’ additions will be broken down for fantasy impact.

 

Yasiel Puig , Matt Kemp and Alex Wood to the Reds

Starting with the headliner in the this deal, Yasiel Puig should benefit from guaranteed playing time along with half of his games in Great American Ball Park. Using Fantasy Alarm’s ballpark ratings, Cincinnati ranks sixth in slugging compared to Dodger Stadium at 27th overall. In 2018, Puig scored 60 runs with 23 home runs, 63 RBI, 15 stolen bases and a .267/.327/.494 slash line in 125 games.

Over the last three years, he’s accrued 1,238 at-bats with 177 runs, 62 home runs, 182 RBI, 35 stolen bases and a .264/.333/.489 line in 383 games. Injuries do affect Puig, so baking this into any projection does make sense. He’s only averaged 128 games in each of the last three seasons. Within this time frame, Puig does own a .205 isolated power, 35.8 fly ball rate, 17.5 home run per fly ball percentage, a 34.1 hard hit percentage and pulls the ball 44% of the time. His line drives and fly balls during this sample with his new park as the overlay would look like this:

 

 

It’s very interesting to note not only would Puig benefit on fly balls to his pull field, but look at the fly balls to center and the opposite field which could jump over the wall in Cincinnati. Add this to Puig’s trends in regards to fly balls and hard-hit percentage:

 

 

 

Although his results seem a bit scattered, as 2018 ended, Puig’s pull percentage, hard-hit rate and home runs per fly balls rose in unison. If Puig carries this over to the Reds in his final year before free agency, it could be a perfect storm. Puig will also be reunited with coach Turner Ward to ease his transition to a new franchise.

Puig’s Steamer projection prior to the trade forecast 475 at-bats, 67 runs, 24 home runs, 77 RBI, 13 stolen bases and a .279/.353/.478 slash. Depending on where Puig hits, his counting statistics could be on the rise partly due to his new surroundings and more playing time with health. Using his expected statistics from the last three years, it aligns with the Steamer average (.278 expected average) and the new park should offset his 51 expected home runs compared to his actual total of 62 the last three seasons.

More importantly, Puig will arrive in Cincinnati coming off career high’s in hard-hit percentage (38.4), contact (78.1%) and Z-Contact (in the strike zone, 89.8%). His swinging strike percentage stabilized the last two seasons and his line drive percentage increased by over 5% in 2018. Also in the last two seasons, Puig’s averaged a home run every 17.7 at-bats, if he reaches the 475 in the Steamer projection above, he could hit 27 if staying on the same pace he’s displayed. But, if he can reach 525 or more at-bats, a 30-home run season could be in the offing. Suffice it to say, the bargain average draft position in NFBC early drafts of the 38th outfielder and 138th overall pick will be ending soon. If it does not, buy, and even if it trends up, he’s still worth the investment in the midst of his prime years.

It’s going to be curious to see if the Reds hold Matt Kemp as a bridge to Jesse Winker ’s return or if they will trade him to an American League team where Kemp could be a designated hitter. Not only did Kemp make an All-Star appearance after winning a job in spring training, he hit 21 home runs with 85 RBI in 146 games for Los Angeles. His hard-hit rate (43.5%) and fly ball percentage (38.1%) surged.

However, in the second half, Kemp’s numbers regressed to a .255/.313/.406 line with only six home runs in 165 at-bats. He did maintain a hard-hit percentage of 41.3, but his isolated power dipped to .152 compared to .235 in the first half. If Kemp stays in Cincinnati, he will be potentially blocking younger talent (Winker and Nick Senzel) but the ballpark effects would offset his second half migration towards the mean.

Steamer already predicted fewer at-bats (336) prior to the trade for Kemp with 43 runs, 15 home runs, 51 RBI and a .260/.308/.452 slash line heeding the warning signs of the second half. If deferring to Kemp’s expected slash (.276/.325/.499) there’s still value to be mined from him in 2019, but it depends on the role and where he will be playing his games.

Trying to firm up its rotation, the Reds will immediately move Alex Wood to the front of the rotation after he ended last season as a reliever with the Dodgers. Wood’s going to need to keep his ground ball rate near his career 49.5% to succeed in Cincinnati. He still won nine games in 2018 with a 3.68 ERA, 3.53 FIP and 1.21 WHIP but with fewer strikeouts.

Over the last three years, Wood’s gone 27 - 14 in 371.1 innings with a 51.6% ground ball rate, 3.27 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 16.8 strikeouts-minus-walks percentage and a 10.9% swinging strike rate. If his strand rate moves towards his three-year mark of 73.6%, he could bounce back.

It’s going to be a battle between the hard-hit rate allowed of 32.1% in his new home park along with the decrease in strikeouts in 2018. Wood’s kwFIP on xSTATS of 4.02 could be where his ERA migrates towards in this trade. For reference, his kwFIP of 3.78 in 2017 translated to a 3.68 ERA last season. It’s not a guarantee, but something to note. Perhaps Wood’s numbers fall in the middle of his 2017 breakout and last year’s totals, but invariably, wins and strikeouts will determine his overall worth. Personally, not sure he’s worth the current price point.

 

Prospects to the Dodgers

All the reports suggest Los Angeles will eat Homer Bailey ’s remaining contract, so he will eventually be a free agent. But, the Dodgers did receive two prospects from the Reds. Infielder Jeter Downs, named after Derek Jeter, does play shortstop but also could shift to second base. Downs owns a compact swing with some power growth potential. At Single-A last season, Downs played in 120 games with 63 runs, 13 home runs, 47 RBI, 37 stolen bases and a .257/.351/.402 slash.

Converted infielder-to-pitcher, Josiah Gray also will head to the Dodgers farm system. Gray’s fastball velocity sits in the low-to-mid 90’s and his slider rates as a plus pitch. It’s yet to be determined if he will be able to develop a third pitch (change-up?) but his delivery and background points to him being a potentially very good reliever if he reaches the majors. Gray went 2-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 59 strikeouts last season.

 

Domingo Santana to Seattle

Did anyone really believe Jerry DiPoto would go a week without tinkering with the roster? On Friday, he acquired Domingo Santana from the Brewers. Santana fell out of favor in Milwaukee losing playing time when the team signed Lorenzo Cain and traded for Christian Yelich . Santana did appear in 85 games last season, but only accrued 211 at-bats with 21 runs, five home runs, 20 RBI, a stolen base and a .265/.328/.412 slash line.

One year removed from his 2017 breakout, it will be very interesting to see what career trajectory Santana follows. For those old enough to remember, Milwaukee also gave up on Nelson Cruz as a post-hype player. With Cruz leaving Seattle for free agency, this clears a path for Santana to either play corner outfield or log at-bats as the designated hitter, depending on if the team flips Edwin Encarnación .

Many will be selling Santana’s struggles with swinging-strike percentage and approach last year as a reason he did not play. Regression set in based on his 2017 numbers, but spending time in Triple-A did not seem to be in the offing. However, with the Cruz comparison in mind, first, here’s each player’s numbers in Triple-A for their careers:

  • Nelson Cruz in AAA - 326 games, 1,177 at-bats, 234 runs, 87 home runs, 254 RBI, 52 stolen bases, .313/.399/.597, 155 walks, 301 strikeouts

  • Domingo Santana in AAA - 273 games, 993 at-bats, 173 runs, 42 home runs, 198 RBI, 10 stolen bases, .309/.406/.515, 159 walks, 335 strikeouts

Before totally comparing them, consider Santana’s only entering his Age-26 season. Cruz spent his Age-24-through-27 seasons at the big league level. There’s no guarantee any of this will translate, but here’s each player’s breakout season with ages included:

 
 
So, in 2018, Santana’s swinging strike percentage did increase to 15.8%, almost in line with Cruz during his breakout at a later age. Santana also slipped in terms of contact, dropping to 66.4% and chased more pitches out of the strike zone. But, he did maintain his hard-hit percentage (40.1 in 2018) and over the last three years owns a .270/.355/.470 slash in the majors over 982 at-bats. Here are his line drives and fly balls in this time frame with Seattle as the backdrop:
 
 

Santana can hit the ball out to all fields, as illustrated above, and should benefit with a clearer path to playing time with the Mariners. ZiPS projects 437 at-bats for Santana with 58 runs, 22 home runs, 57 RBI, six stolen bases and a .231/.329/.430 slash. Referencing xSTATS, his last three-season expected average of .268 and home run total of 42.7 suggest less of a precipitous drop in average. There’s room for growth in his game, which could be necessary to stay in the majors, but giving up on Santana in fantasy could be a mistake.

Planning on an average in the .265 range seems realistic but the power and on-base skills should be able to keep Santana above water in the fantasy department. Where he fits in the lineup will factor into his total counting statistics. This could be a perfect opportunity to throw a dart his way hoping for a bounce back season in upcoming drafts.

 

Ben Gamel and Noah Zavolas to Milwaukee

Less of a headliner, but filling a need, Ben Gamel will join the Brewers as a left-handed bat off the bench and possesses a minor league option if the team needs it. Gamel logged 101 games for Seattle in 2018 with 257 at-bats, 37 runs, a home run, 19 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .272/.358/.370 slash. He raised his walk percentage while his isolated power cratered. Underlying plate discipline metrics ticked up, but Gamel will only be relevant in mixed leagues if an injury occurs in Milwaukee’s outfield, which could still happen.

If it does, ZiPS projects Gamel for 479 at-bats, nine home runs, 53 RBI, 10 steals and a .267/.331/.413 slash. Something to keep in mind for league only formats. Noah Zavolas split time between two levels with a 5-2 record, two saves and 41 strikeouts in 38.2 innings. He projects as a reliever but will not be a factor in the year ahead.

Be sure to stick with Fantasy Alarm to stay ahead of your competition.

 

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

MiLB.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net

SteamerProjections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski