After much anticipation along with changes to the players involved, a trade finally occurred between the Mets and the Mariners, pending physicals. Robinson Canó and Edwin Díaz will head to New York with $20 million dollars towards Cano’s salary. Seattle will take on the contracts of Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak . Due to this, the Mariners also reeled in three prospects including two past first-round selections from the Mets system. Debating who wins the trade seems better left for the analysts. For fantasy, there’s multiple moving pieces which will be explored as it affects each player.
Cano and Diaz to the Mets
At a time with the market flush with second basemen and relievers, the Mets could not have flushed perceived sunk contracts in both Bruce or Swarzak, hence the deal. Robinson Canó only appeared in 80 games last year due to serving a suspension testing positive for performance enhancement drugs. He did hit 10 home runs with 50 RBI in only 310 at-bats finishing with a .303/.374/.471 slash line. Entering his Age-36 season, some questions will remain about how he will age since he’s signed through 2023, but for this year in fantasy, it seems like Cano will be business as usual.
Over the last three years, Cano carries a .292/.350/.490 line with 230 runs, 72 home runs and 250 RBI in 1,557 at-bats. For his career, Cano’s 21.1 line drive percentage, 14.5 home run per fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit percentage should play in New York. He will be undaunted by playing in a city where he broke into baseball and he’s coming off a career best 41.5 hard hit percentage. Here’s a look at all of his line drives and fly balls hit with Citi Field as the backdrop:
Transitioning to his expected statistics courtesy of xSTATS.org, Cano should have hit .343/.413/.539 last year with 12.1 expected home runs and he improved his exit velocity by three MPH. Statcast supports this data with Cano finishing fifth in the majors last year with a 93.1 MPH average exit velocity.
For fantasy purposes, Cano moving to the Mets does not prove an immediate risk. Yes, he moves to the National League, but his approach and swing should play anywhere. As he ages, the risk of decline will increase, especially as he nears the end of his contract, but his 2019 season could be a bargain at present cost. Steamer projects Cano for 79 runs, 23 home runs, 87 RBI, a stolen base and a .283/.343/.450 slash in 587 at-bats. A very good baseline, especially in regards to the counting statistics. However, Cano should be able to exceed the average based on past production and his last three-year average from above.
New York also addressed a clear need in the bullpen acquiring closer Edwin Díaz . He’s coming off one of the best seasons ever by a closer. Diaz led the majors with 57 saves in 2018, finished second among all relievers with 124 strikeouts and only the second reliever to record at least 50 saves with over 100 strikeouts, Eric Gagne accomplished this feat in back in 2002 and 2003.
Diaz also thrived in close contests last season converting 27 of 30 saves in one run games. Seattle went 61-0 in Diaz’s save opportunities winning all four of his blown saves and finished 66-0 when Diaz pitched with a lead. He also struck out 124 of the 280 total batters faced for a 44.3 strikeout percentage, and he converted 28 saves in a row from June 2nd through August 15th and won reliever of the month in the American League four times.
A strong 38.2 strikeouts minus walk percentage fueled his strong season and Diaz proved durable throwing 73.1 innings for the Mariners. He finished with a 1.96 ERA, 1.61 FIP and 0.79 WHIP to also provide strong ratio help in fantasy. Steamer projects him to pitch 65 innings with 34 saves, a fluky statistic, a 94:22 K:BB rate, a 2.63 ERA, 2.57 FIP and 1.02 WHIP. It’s apparent Diaz should remain a top closing option in fantasy but there will be a sharp increase in his price due to last year’s results. However, with saves disappearing in fantasy and Diaz anchoring a strong pitching staff on a team which plays close games, he should be assured of plenty of chances to rack them up in the year ahead.
Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak to Seattle
Similar to Cano, fantasy owners should understand what they get with Jay Bruce : under-the-radar power after a season when home runs declined and a clear chance to play. It remains to be seen if Seattle will keep Bruce or flip him to another team, but in the American League, he owns a clear path to at-bats. Injuries limited Bruce to oly 44 games last season. He finished with 31 runs, nine home runs, 37 RBI, two steals and a .223/.310/.370 slash line. That’s not appealing. However, keep in mind Bruce entered the year projected to hit 33 home runs by The BAT and 29 home runs by both Steamer and ZiPS.
Over the last three years, Bruce has accrued 1,413 at-bats with 187 runs, 78 home runs, 237 RBI and a .246/.315/.476 line. This equates to a home run every 18.12 at-bats with a 9.1 walk percentage and a 21.7 strikeout rate. Also within this time frame, Bruce averaged a 37.7 hard hit percentage, 16.1 home run to fly ball rate and the 18th best isolated power (.230) among his peers. Here’s a look at his last three-year line drives and fly balls in Seattle:
Early average draft position points to Bruce flying well below the radar. So teams needing to add power to their lineup should speculate on him late in drafts. Using his expected statistics from last season, Bruce could have hit .269/.338/.528, a much more alluring stat line with 10.7 expected home runs. Steamer projects him for 57 runs with 21 home runs, 66 RBI, three stolen bases and a .229/.304/.426 line. Taking the over on home runs and average if Bruce can reach the projected 450-plus at-bats. In fact, he could be the cheapest 30 home runs taken in the 20th round in early NFBC drafts. Think of him as a Kyle Schwarber without the hype but the same chance at 30 home runs.
With Seattle trading both Edwin Díaz and Álex Colomé , there will be a chance for Anthony Swarzak to find himself in high leverage innings. His main competition could be Juan Nicasio , but save speculators will need to take heed of how the Mariners proceed this off-season. Swarzak disappointed in an injury-riddled season. He did save four games with the Mets but his ERA was over 6.00 and his FIP of 5.41 do not jump off the page.
Swarzak’s one season removed from a 2.33 ERA, 2.74 FIP and 1.03 WHIP with a strong 22.8 strikeouts minus walk percentage. According to Brooks Baseball, Swarzak lost almost a MPH off of his fastball last year raising his batting average against by almost 100 points and his isolated power against also spiked. Same goes for his slider. But, simple regression to the mean could portend a bounce back by Swarzak.
Steamer projects him for 65 innings with two saves, a 70:23 K:BB, 3.64 ERA, 3.68 FIP and 1.25 WHIP. Tracking his health and fastball velocity in spring, along with usage patterns, will go a long way towards determining if Swarzak owns any fantasy appeal in the year ahead. But, he could be an eventual sneaky pickup if save chances materialize.
Mining the Prospects
Representing the polarizing part of the trade, New York traded its first pick in the 2018 draft, Jarred Kelenic. A “toolsy” outfielder, Kelenic could be Seattle’s eventual center fielder of the future. In 56 games in the minors last season, Kelenic racked up 10 doubles, six triples, six home runs, 42 RBI, stole 15 bases and had a .286/.371/.468 slash line. It’s far too early to speculate, but Kelenic could represent a potential 20/20 home run and stolen base center fielder who could arrive as soon as 2020, and one Mets fans will feel got away if they do not cash in during Cano’s window.
Seattle also gets two minor league pitchers, Justin Dunn and Gershon Bautista. Dunn owns a fastball which sits in the mid-90’s with a solid offspeed arsenal to accompany it. He went 6-5 at Double-A with a 4.22 ERA in 15 starts. Bautista slots as a reliever and physically mirrors Diaz in his size and lankiness. Bautista can hit 98 MPH with his fastball, but needs to create more swings and misses to succeed in the majors. But, both Dunn and Bautista possess enough in their profiles to contribute in the majors.
There will be much more to come with the Winter Meetings later this week. Be sure to stay with Fantasy Alarm to stay ahead of your competition.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
xSTATS.org
SteamerProjections.com
MiLB.com
BaseballSavant.com