Targeting Alex Bregman this preseason made perfect sense. A player with a blend of speed and power, adding shortstop eligibility to third base and potentially hitting second for the Astros offense. Slam dunk, right? Once again, Bregman started the season slowly frustrating his owners with his average cratering to .219 entering game play on April 19th. Fast forward to Thursday night when Bregman went 2-for-4 with a run, double, home run, four RBI and a walk during Houston’s win in Cleveland.

Since the 19th, Bregman’s played in 32 games going 36-for-114 (.316) with 14 doubles, four home runs, 19 RBI and 21 walks raising his average 58 points. In May, Bregman’s slashing a robust .303/.411/.579 with a hard hit percentage of 50.8 percent and a 173 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) while settling in to the second spot in the order with Josh Reddick on the disabled list.

In spite of the surface data supporting Bregman’s recent hot streak, he’s also displaying an improved approach at the plate. His 14.6 walk percentage versus a 11.4 percent of strikeouts this year comes at a time when most major league players are striking out at an all-time high rate. Bregman’s reduced his swinging strike rate by almost two percent trading it for increased contact, but it’s the precipitous drop in chase rate which makes Bregman even more intriguing:

 

Not only is Bregman seeing the ball right now, his O-Swing percentage has decreased by over seven percent compared to last year. Add this to a spike in hard hit percentage:

 

And the proverbial buy low window on Bregman’s closing as rapidly as one would think. Bregman along with his teammates could go on a tear soon, which could be scary for future opponents despite a grinder of a schedule with Houston in Cleveland then heading to New York to face the Yankees and Boston in the week ahead. Act accordingly.

That Just Happened

Most of the focus on the Astros, and rightfully so, has been on the rotation. Charlie Morton won his 10th consecutive decision dating back to last season in a solid six inning start yielding five hits, two earned runs and three walks with five strikeouts. It does not represent his best work within the streak, but counts the same. Over his last 12 starts, Morton’s 2.03 ERA will play and his average fastball velocity this year ranks behind only Luis Severino .

Houston not only scored eight runs on Thursday, but they were aggressive on the bases. George Springer stole two bases and seems to be heating up. Also, Tony Kemp made a terrific catch looking like Spiderman and swiped his second base in seven games. Since his promotion, Kemp’s reached safely in six of his seven starts. He’s an intriguing target this weekend in waivers for teams searching for speed. Kemp stole 13 bases in Triple-A, in 15 attempts, with a .335 average and 19 RBI in 38 games.

Not to be overlooked, the Indians need to upgrade their bullpen as soon as possible. As a unit, Cleveland ranks second from last in ERA (5.56) and FIP (4.68), 23rd in WHIP (1.41) and only middle of the pack with a 14.7 strikeout minus walk percentage. Teams will try to outlast their starters to get to the soft underbelly of the team in order to win games.

Blake Snell continues to surge with six shutout innings at home against Boston. He allowed three hits and two walks with six strikeouts en route to his sixth win of the season. Since his recall on August 8th last year, Snell’s made 21 starts winning 11 decisions against four losses with a 2.81 ERA. During this stretch, Snell’s yielded two runs or fewer in 16 outings, one run or less in 12 games and made six starts giving zero earned runs. This season, Snell’s nine starts of two earned runs or fewer ties Max Scherzer for second as they trail Justin Verlander (10) for the major league lead.

After Snell left the game, Mitch Moreland homered off of reliever Matt Andriese . Moreland could see less playing time with the team activating Dustin Pedroia . However, over the last 14 games, Moreland’s hitting .354 with nine runs, five doubles, five home runs, 11 RBI and eight walks.

Whit Merrifield entered Thursday’s game hitless in his previous 12 at-bats but finished 2-for-4 with a run, double, two RBI and a walk in Texas. He ranks second in the American League in stolen bases with 12 and hit .333/.360/.542 against the Rangers last year. Teammate Salvador Pérez added two, two-RBI singles in this game pushing his RBI total to 26 since his return from the disabled list on April 24th with eight home runs.

On-base machine Brandon Nimmo reached in all five plate appearances on Thursday in Milwaukee going 4-for-4 with two doubles and a triple along with a walk. He’s reached base in eight straight plate appearances with two walks, two singles, two doubles, a triple and a home run as he settles in atop the Mets lineup. Nimmo’s first inning double had a 110.9 MPH exit velocity.

It’s easy to overlook Asdrubal Cabrera in fantasy. However, multiple eligibility along with production keeps him on the radar. Cabrera added a two-RBI double against the Brewers in the win. Also, over the last 31 games, Cabrera’s 37-for-122 (.303) with 14 runs, 11 doubles, a triple, four home runs and 22 RBI.

Owners of Christian Yelich may be frustrated, but like Bregman above, be patient. Yelich seems to be in transition adjusting to his new surroundings while getting over an injury. So far in 2018, Yelich’s hitting fewer ground balls, down almost seven percent while trading them for line drives, up almost five percent. However, the most intriguing part, he’s barreling the ball 10.6 percent of the time compared to only a seven percent mark last season. Hold on tight, a surge could ensue soon.

Night Moves

Álex Reyes continues to dominate in his rehab outings in preparation for his return next week. During his start on Thursday in Triple-A, Reyes whiffed seven straight at one point finishing with 13 strikeouts in seven innings giving up only a hit and no runs. His last three starts during his rehab have yielded 38 strikeouts in 19.2 innings while allowing no runs and three hits. Last call to add him if for some reason everyone in your league’s sleeping.

Boston will activate Dustin Pedroia today and the Yankees will recall Greg Bird on Saturday. Ryan Braun singled in his first at-bat back from the disabled list. Jesus Aguilar stayed at first base and Domingo Santana hit the pine as a result. Keep in mind, Santana’s a reverse splits guy, but the return of Braun harpoons his fantasy value if the Brewers keep their word with Aguilar logging the majority of innings at first base.

Burning Questions

Will Sergio Romo finish the season with more starts than any pitcher? Who gets the best of the Dallas Keuchel and Corey Kluber match-up in Cleveland? Mad Max Scherzer will face the Marlins in Miami, will he whiff 15, 18 or 20? Can the Baby Braves stay hot facing the Red Sox in Boston?

All of this and much more will be covered by the great Fantasy Alarm team to keep you ahead of your competition.

 

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com