| Age: | 31 |
| Bats/Throws: | L/L |
| Height/Weight: | 6'3", 218 lbs |
| Position: | Outfield |
After making his mark in the fantasy community as a bargain bat, Charlie Blackmon’s not a sneaky pick any longer. In fact, he’s moved into the first round being a player who truly contributes in every hitting category. Blackmon led the majors in runs (137) by nine runs, he’s one of nine players to score at least 100 runs with 100 or more RBI. Of this group, Blackmon and three others (Joey Votto, Jose Altuve and Nolan Arenado) to achieve this along with hitting over three hundred on the season. Plus, Blackmon chipped in with 14 stolen bases.
So what’s in store for an encore by a player in his thirties past his peak power stage with a career year in the rear view mirror? Not to cop out, but it depends. In regards to his numbers last year, they did need luck to happen. Blackmon’s expected slash line of .322/.391/.585 does not show much variance from his actual line of .331/.399/.601 last year. His expected on-base average of .407 sat seven points below last season’s weighted on-base average. Plus, for those not buying into the power, Blackmon’s expected home runs of 36.2 suggest it may stick.
Over the last three seasons, Blackmon’s accrued 1,836 at-bats with 341 runs, 83 home runs, 244 RBI, 74 stolen bases and a .314/.376/.535 slash line. For a baseline projection, this would translate to an average of 612 at-bats, 114 runs, 27 home runs, 81 RBI and 24 stolen bases. Due to his age rising, the reduction in steals and transition to power makes sense and it will factor into his 2018 numbers.
Before delving into his projections, using the last three years as the guide, here’s a 30-game rolling chart courtesy of Fangraphs illustrating some of his batted ball data. Within the chart will be Blackmon’s contact rates, isolated power, hard hit percentages and home run per fly balls:
It’s worth noting Blackmon’s slightly traded contact for increased power. His isolated power spiked in the second half of 2016 and he carried it over at a much higher rate last season. Blackmon’s .270 isolated power in 2017 represents a career high supported by an accompanying career best in hard hit percentage of 39 percent. This resulted in the progressive increase in Blackmon’s home run per fly ball rate last year which finished at 19.6 percent.
Since Blackmon plays half of his games in Coors, there’s some disparity in his home and road splits. Using the last three years as a more accurate barometer on his outcomes, here’s how the numbers look:
- Blackmon last three years at Coors: 198 runs, 43 home runs, 142 RBI, .353 average, 1.023 on-base plus slugging percentage
- Blackmon last three years on the road: 143 runs, 40 home runs, 102 RBI, .276 average, .802 on-base plus slugging percentage
Blackmon sees a drop in runs and RBI on the road, but he’s maintained the ability to hit for power. This underscores his apex in home runs last year and suggests it could continue, even if he does not reach last years total.
Due to his projections not showing too much variance between the sites, it will be broken down by category to show the high and low watermarks as reference points. In terms of his average, Steamer sees the most regression with a .296 forecast while ZiPS seems bullish at .310 for the upcoming season. Steamer also does not predict a repeat of 30 home runs, projecting 29 while THE BAT (33) and ZiPS (34) think it’s possible.
Where Blackmon ultimately hits will affect his other counting statistics. With deference to his numbers not being adjusted after the Carlos Gonzalez signing, which should shift Blackmon back to lead-off rather than third in the lineup, THE BAT attached only 96 runs to his projection while ZiPS foresees 116 this year. As for RBI, it’s Steamer as the low with only 80 versus 90 by THE BAT. On an interesting note, while THE BAT did not love Blackmon’s runs, it sees him running the most with a migration to his 2016 season with a projection of 18 steals while ZiPS only predicts 14 swipes.
There’s no question Charlie Blackmon’s evolved into a fantasy cornerstone cemented by his ability to fill all five statistical categories. Arguing about his eventual season seems contrite. Even with some regression baked in, just reaching his last three year averages with a bit more power and fewer steals makes Blackmon a worthy target in the first round this year.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, xSTATS.org, Steamerprojections.com,THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski