2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Ken Giles

Ken Giles

With the total number of saves shrinking in baseball last year, targeting the right closers will be pivotal for success in fantasy this year. Ken Giles notched a career-high 34 saves last season accompanied by a 2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 83 strikeouts in 62.2 innings. However, his playoff collapses being fresh in fantasy owners minds seem to be depressing his draft stock. Which begs to question, which Giles will emerge in 2018? The one who surged in the second half or the post-season one who ceded the ninth inning during Houston’s run to a title?

Giles burst on the scene with a blazing fastball and devastating slider as a prospect with the Phillies. After his trade to the Astros, it took him until last season to ascend to the top of the bullpen chart as the closer. Over the last three seasons, Giles owns a 2.72 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and a 272:71 K:BB in 198.1 innings. Last year, his slider ranked 20th among relievers who threw at least 200 pitches generating a 46.09 whiff-per-swing percentage according to Baseball Prospectus.

Part of his success lies in getting ahead in the count in order to deploy his slider to produce strikeouts. Since his slider held opponents to a .130 batting average against last year with the high swing-and-miss rate, it’s a formula for success. However, if Giles falls behind in the count, necessitating a fastball, he struggles. Batters finished with a .342 average against his fastball last year with a .518 slugging percentage. Here’s where the memories of the playoffs linger for fantasy owners.

While the slider resulted in 73 of his 83 strikeouts, Giles needs to find a way to more effectively use his fastball. He will not turn 28 until September and the Astros use analytics very well. But the fluidity the team exhibited along with a stocked bullpen means Giles cannot afford a slow start if he hopes to close a majority of the games this season. Here’s a look at his zone charts courtesy of Baseball Savant (Statcast):

One would think Giles could work a bit higher in the zone to change levels in an attempt to keep hitters off balance, but in the upper third of the strike zone he struggled last year. The red highlights illustrate how his slider bites and dives out of the strike zone, netting the high total of strikeouts. During the second half, Giles ranked fourth of qualified relievers with a 31.3 strikeouts-minus-walk percentage, recorded a 0.96 WHIP, a tremendous ERA- of 28 and a 1.19 ERA. This helped balance his overall numbers of last year, but Giles did not carry the momentum into the playoffs.

Perusing his expected statistics, they seem to agree with his 2017 totals. Giles bbFIP of 2.60 aligns with his FIP, an expected average against of .193 and xBABIP of .278 plus his lowest expected on-base average from the last three years (.250) agree Giles can be dominant when confident. Giles also cut his home-run-per-fly-ball rate by over seven percent last year.

Although his manager can be guarded, saying Giles will work at times in the highest leverage moments, when the season ensues, Giles will head the depth chart in the bullpen as the closer to own in fantasy. How he handles the postseason struggles along with attacking hitters with the slider will ultimately decide his overall value. Due to the strength of Houston’s bullpen, predicting Giles to build on his saves total from last year would be risky.

However, with the number of saves shrinking by almost one hundred from 2016 to last season means as long as Giles gets 30 or more, he’s worth a shot. But his owners need to realize some regression could occur and if Giles scuffles, he could lose his tenuous grip on the ninth inning. Talent and track record help solidify Giles standing when targeting saves, just do not overpay.

His projections bake in some regression to the mean, but as his expected statistics illustrate, a collapse should not be imminent. Both Depth Charts and ZiPS think Giles can increase his strikeouts per nine innings while THE BAT along with Steamer see it decreasing slightly. As for counting statistics, the range of strikeouts sits between 82-to-93 in 65 innings with 31-to-33 saves. Both seem likely. There’s more discrepancy in his ratio statistics with an ERA as low as 2.91 and as high as 3.18 with his WHIP migrating back towards the 1.12-to-1.14 region.

Like any player, there’s a chance Giles can outperform his projections with a career year. And it’s not out of the realm of possibilities. Unlike many closers, Giles could also collapse at the onset of the season and find himself on the outside looking in if a bullpen by committee emerges. Due to the inherent risk, some may avoid Giles in drafts or auctions. Betting on Giles reaching his projections, but not paying for more than a repeat of 34 saves from last season. This caps his upside, but Giles appears to be who he is. A flawed closer with a terrific slider who needs to pitch with confidence to succeed.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, BrooksBaseball.net, BaseballProspectus.com