2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Trey Mancini

Trey Mancini

In order to set the proper tone on Trey Mancini, owning shares did not seem practical prior to working on this profile. Mancini rode a strong start to his promotion last year to a very solid finish with 65 runs, 24 home runs, 78 RBI, one stolen base and a .293/.338/.488 slash line in 149 games. He struck out 23.7 percent of the time versus a walk percentage of 5.6 with a .349 weighted on-base average. His weighted runs created plus finished above league average at 117, again, solid, not spectacular.

Can one amass a roster of players of players who move the fantasy needle in terms of excitement? If so, it proves to be risky. Part of my apprehension about Mancini lies in his propensity to generate ground balls. He hit them 51 percent of the time last year in Baltimore. Mancini also fly balls at a 29.7 percent rate and line drives just under 20 percent of the time, but using MLB.com’s ground outs to air outs ratio, his 1.44 could cap his power, right?

For starters, Mancini’s fly ball and line drive exit velocity last year of 95 MPH does provide some hope. Last spring, Mancini’s ground outs against air outs ratio of 2.13 seems much different than his 0.92 rate this year in 39 at-bats. This could be important. Mancini’s also hit a home run every 13 at-bats, but the level of competition could be a part of it. Either way, focus on the amount of air outs rising. It could be important.

Why? Shifting to Mancini’s expected statistics from last year exemplifies some support of his debut. According to xSTATS.org, Mancini should have hit .283/.329/.498 with an xOBA in direct line with his weighted on-base average above. However, the most enticing tidbit, Mancini’s expected home runs total of 29.2 compared to his 24 last year. Perhaps Mancini does not need to elevate the ball more to come close to 30 home runs, just a bit of luck in migration of his results compared to expectations. It’s rare a player sees almost complete alignment of his slash lines, on-base average along with power growth.

Mancini also did well in terms of plate discipline though it’s less than perfect. He made contact 73 percent of the time, chased pitches outside the strike zone just under 35 percent in his at-bats and finished with a 13.8 swinging strike percentage. Some would like to see his chase rate decrease and potentially increase his contact, but it’s not too worrisome. Especially with his underlying expected statistics. Here’s his contact rates, fly ball and home run per fly ball percentage last year:

Again, Mancini increased his contact as the season progressed in spite of his fly balls decreasing. Key on the spring shift to more fly ball outs and hope it translates to 2018, which could affect his projections. Speaking of which, three different sites seem to agree on Mancini’s upcoming year with averages of 69 runs, 26 home runs, 79 RBI and a steal with an average in the low .270’s. Solid.

However, if Mancini can get his home run total to migrate towards his expected total of 29.2 with more at-bats in the majors this year if he reaches 575 or more, 30 could happen. Plus, with the recent injury to Mark Trumbo, Mancini could take the fifth spot in the batting order over. He only spent 58 games there last year, but the Orioles as a team generated 88 runs and 86 RBI from this spot in the lineup. Adding to Mancini’s counting statistics along with potential power growth makes him solid with room for growth. As he enters his Age-26 season along with his power peak, Mancini could be a bit overlooked. Kudos to Howard Bender and Jim Bowden who shifted a preconceived notion about a player prior to further research.

It’s tough to battle perceived personal bias, but Trey Mancini could match or improve upon last year. Due to this, he’s worth speculating on this year in drafts or auctions.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, MLB.com