2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

There’s not many more polarizing players in the major leagues than Bryce Harper. His name moves the needle whether it’s real baseball or fantasy. He sits on the precipice of a record breaking free agency season with teams lining up their finances in order to try and sign Harper. Yet, he remains, in a word brash to most. Brash can be associated with being self-absorbed, and how many 25 year olds do not fit this category, or strong with a tendency to be highly-spirited, ostentatious or one with too much confidence (a nice way to say cocky) with too little respect.

This last statement holds true with my Dad’s generation. While many see Harper as spoiled, he’s worked to be where he presently is, about to be the highest-paid player in baseball. Despite playing more than 150 games just once in the last six years, there’s no discount in his auction value or average draft position. In fact, there’s a case to be made for about 12 players after the second selection in most drafts.

Before delving into his past production, first, the facts. Harper plays the game hard. It results in him being hurt, sometimes resulting from how he plays, sometimes it can be labeled fluky. Last year at this time, many, myself included, proceeded with caution on taking Giancarlo Stanton in drafts, when he finally hit the 50-plus home runs he’s been forecast to achieve the past few seasons. It’s almost the fear of missing keeps Harper in the top-10 of most drafts.

Of course, it’s for good reason. Harper’s 2015 with 153 games played, produced 118 runs, 42 home runs, 99 RBI, six stolen bases and a video game .330/.460/.649 slash line. It also yielded an isolated power of .319 and a 197 weighted runs created plus. Suffice it to say, Harper reached his potential. It’s what keeps people coming back.

On the surface, last year seems like a disappointment, especially for those who invested in Harper. He only played 111 games but still scored 95 runs with 29 home runs, 87 RBI, four steals and finished with only his second on-base plus slugging percentage over one thousand. His weighted on-base average over 41 percent kept his counting statistics up in spite of the time he missed. Herein lies the upside of a player who will not turn 26 until October, entering his prolific peak power years with a 40-plus home run season on his resume and about to hit the open market.

It feels like this could be the perfect storm, right? Over the last three years, Harper’s accrued 1,447 at-bats with 297 runs, 95 home runs, 272 RBI and 31 stolen bases with a .296/.416/.560 slash line. Here’s how this looks in a picture courtesy of MLBfarm.com:

Harper’s averaged a home run every 15.23 at-bats and does not need to pull the ball to hit one over the fence. In fact, he’s able to drive the ball to all fields which only enhances his power upside, if this exists with him. Here’s Harper’s hit location chart from the last three years as a point of reference:

Although Harper’s not fully on the fly ball revolution, he does hit the ball well when he elevates a baseball. According to Statcast, Harper recorded 324 batted ball events last year with an average exit velocity of 95.5 MPH on fly balls and line drives with an average home run distance of 407 feet. He also registered 135 balls in play at 95.5 MPH or higher exit velocity, or 41.7 percent of the time. Harper’s hard hit percentage seems stable the last two years at 34.3 and 34.1 respectively, but not near the 40.9 percent he attained during his prolific 2015 season owners seem to be chasing.

In regards to his plate discipline, Harper became a bit more aggressive last season with his swinging strike percentage rising to 13.2 percent, his contact rate decreasing by almost five percent plus his swings and misses at pitches outside the strike zone also increased. Of course, these all migrated back towards his career norms, but it’s worth noting. But, what if he puts it all together once again, in conflation with his pending free agency?

Trying to predict what Harper could do this year could be frustrating. There’s so many possible outcomes, he almost could be projected in ranges rather than one agreeable number. Most projection systems will default to the last three years of statistical data to try and arrive at reasonable numbers. However, Harper does not seem to fit this mold. For instance, here’s his three listed on Fangraphs as a frame of reference:

Since Bryce Harper could be a steal at his present average draft position or a bust makes taking him an uncomfortable venture. Owners willing to add his risk to a roster will need to act accordingly in the ensuing rounds to build a balanced roster in order to mitigate disaster. But, Harper’s still teeming with upside if he can stay on the field for 150 or more games in his Age-25 season. Why? Here’s his 30-game rolling chart with weighted on-base average (wOBA), home run per fly ball percentage and hard hit rates:

For the first time since his vaunted 2015 season, Harper finished the year with his numbers in these categories in migrations towards his old self. Many permutations will ensue when trying to predict how Harper’s season will finish. Much will depend on the health angle which cannot be foreseen. If Harper can reach 500 or so at-bats, his numbers in the chart above will be within reach in a deep lineup, which like himself, will depend on a litany of players who need to stay healthy to reach full potential.

If Harper can reach 550 at-bats, then nearing a repeat of something he’s already accomplished could be on the table as well. In order to avoid being too crazy, let’s not suggest he reaches 600 at-bats, but the possibilities remain endless. Harper could hit 40 home runs, perhaps even 45, in these scenarios. With an average at or near three hundred and counting statistics galore, one can only imagine. Like the word to describe him brash, it takes almost the same bravado to draft Harper. But, if he ever gives owners another 150-plus game season, Harper’s well worth it. Feeling lucky?

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, MLBfarm.com, BaseballSavant.com, Rosterresource.com, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski, Merriam Webster Dictionary