| Age: | 27 |
| Bats/Throws: | R/R |
| Height/Weight: | 6'3", 240 lbs |
| Position: | Starting Pitcher |
Also known as the “other Zack” on the Diamondbacks, it feels like Zack Godley flies beneath the fantasy radar. He made 28 starts between Triple-A and the majors last year at a time when durability can be questionable performing well under the circumstances in Arizona last year. Plus, working in the Pacific Coast League as a starting pitcher can be daunting as well. Godley filled in affably for an injured Shelby Miller winning eight of his 17 decisions with Arizona along with logging 155 innings with a 3.37 ERA and a very respectable 1.14 WHIP.
He struck out 26.3 percent of the total batters he faced in the majors for 165 against 53 walks for a 17.9 strikeouts minus walk percentage. Of more importance, Godley improved his ground ball percentage to 55.3 percent last season while reducing contact by almost five percent with a gain in swinging strike percentage. All of this preceding the potential improvement he could benefit from with a humidor this season in home starts.
Why would the humidor help Godley? The answer comes in two parts. First, Godley generated the second-highest whiff per swing rate of pitchers who threw at least 500 pitches last year with his curve (45.63 percent) and inducing ground balls 57 percent of the time when hitters put the pitch in play. Plus, he also throws a change (not nearly enough) which produced a 40.6 whiff per swing rate according to BrooksBaseball.net but Godley used the pitch less than 10 percent of the time.
Part of the struggles in spring training for pitchers in Arizona relate to getting a feel for their secondary pitches due to the low humidity at the fields. This also applies to Godley in home starts prior to a humidor. Could the presence of baseballs which will yield a better feel allow his curve to be even more effective and increase the usage of the change? Time will tell. But looking back at a chart made for an article about the humidor, here’s how his numbers look, along with the other Diamondback pitchers as a bonus:
Hone in on Godley’s expected home runs at home versus the road and, even though some of his home numbers were good, there’s some room for growth. Godley used his sinker around 32 percent of the time last year, but it allowed a .308 batting average against versus .235 or lower for the other pitches in his repertoire:
- Change - 84.2 MPH, 40.6 whiff per swing rate, .229 batting average against
- Curve - 83.5 MPH, 45.3 whiff per swing rate, .162 batting average against
- Cutter - 90 MPH, 28.5 whiff per swing rate, .235 batting average against
Perhaps Godley could benefit from using his curve and change more while reducing his sinker like Rich Hill from the Dodgers. Working backwards in the count may benefit Godley going forward leaving him with some room for growth. For the visual crowd, here’s a 3D look at his pitchers from BaseballSavant.com:
In fact, Godley’s xSTATS of a bbFIP of 3.61 almost falls in line with the differences in his road and home ERAs boding well for his future. One area to keep tabs on, Godley’s splits between the first and second halves last year. First, here’s his velocity chart for his career courtesy of Brooks Baseball once again:
In spite of the reduced velocity, he ended the year with his whiff per swings of all of his pitches around the same, but Godley’s first half ERA (2.58) compared to his second half (4.01) seem to migrate towards his bbFIP above when seeing his FIP (3.65) after the break. Keep this in mind when trying to forecast his season in 2018, even with the potential impact of the humidor. Holding the gains in ground ball rate plus the strikeouts could be tough to do, but if Godley does, he will outdistance his current projections by Steamer and ZiPS.
Due to the factors of the humidor being completely unknown, speculating on Godley’s outcomes this year will be open to interpretation. Suffice it to say, using his past to predict his future may be tough to do. If Godley repeats 180 plus innings like last year, he could strike out 190 or more. At a time when innings seem to be disappearing, this makes him slightly undervalued. Plus, an ERA in the 3.65 range with a slight increase in WHIP, even to the 1.20 range makes Godley worth a shot.
If Godley does incorporate the change more this season with the humidor, he could prove to be quite a bargain depending on outcomes. Suffice it to say, Zack Godley’s better than many think.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, BaseballSavant.com, BaseballProspectus.com, xSTATS.org