Aaron Nola

Age:24
Bats/Throws:R/R
Height/Weight:6'2", 200 lbs
Position:Starting Pitcher

With the price of pitching rising, helium will be attached to some viewed as breakouts this season. One of the names heading the list will be Aaron Nola. He won 12 games last year with 184 strikeouts in 168 innings of work with a tidy 3.54 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. This, along with his devastating curveball earned him the Opening Day start and number one status in the team’s rotation.

Beneath the glossy statistics above, Nola did trade some ground ball percentage, down almost six percent compared to 2016 at 49.8 percent but he kept his home run per fly ball percentage almost in line in spite of more fly balls yielded. Nola also slightly increased his strikeouts minus walk percentage to 19.5 last season fueled by his swinging strike percentage moving to 10.8 percent, a career best. His swings and misses at pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing) and contact rates held steady punctuating a stable skill set.

If Nola can reach another level of production will depend on if his curveball usage increases or he follows the lead of Charlie Morton. In the event one missed out on the hype from the World Series, Morton used his sinker less and worked at the upper edges of the strike zone to accrue more strikeouts last year. Although Nola whiffed 184, could there be more in the offing? For starters, here’s his arsenal using the information from Brooks Baseball showing his pitches, usage, whiff per swing generated by percentage, batting average against (BAA) and isolated power (ISO) allowed by each:

For comparison’s sake, Nola did use his curve more in 2016 (33 percent) with a slightly higher whiff per swing (41.81) but he did improve with the change last year. However, as the point of interest, first, here’s Nola’s total pitches thrown last year by zone:

Due to the usage of his sinker and the curve, the most targeted areas appear lower in the zone and to the lowest quadrant shown in red. He rarely pitched in the highest plane illustrated above, but could using it unlock more strikeout potential? Here’s Nola’s whiff per swing percentage using the same exact zone breakdown from last year:

While Nola did not work up in the zone often, the number in red along with all areas except one showing a whiff per swing percentage of at least 25 percent suggests it should be explored. Shifting hitter’s eyes and being able to drop his curve while ahead of the count along with 185-to-190 innings could translate to 200 strikeouts.

As for his curve, Nola can spin them. According to Baseball Prospectus, Nola’s curve ranked sixt last year among pitchers to throw at least 500 pitches with a swinging strike percentage of 44.39 with the pitch. On Fangraphs, Nola’s weighted curveball value ranked second only to Corey Kluber last year and ahead of Stephen Strasburg.

Shifting to his batted ball data, Nola allowed an average exit velocity of 85.6 MPH last year using Statcast data. For reference, Max Scherzer allowed an average of 85.7 MPH and Jacob deGrom 85.5 MPH, pretty good company. In regards to hard hit percentage on Fangraphs, Nola yielded the same amount, 29.7 percent, as Chris Sale. In case you’ve missed it, there’s a big four starting pitchers in the headlines in fantasy drafts to target, so far, Nola’s been compared to three of them within this profile.

As if this does not sell one enough, Nola also showed signs of a velocity increase as the season went on last year. Here’s one more chart to illustrate:

Before trying to arrive at a projection, Nola’s on the precipice of taking another step forward, especially if he attacks the top of the strike zone as a way to enhance his already strong repertoire. With almost 15 MPH difference in his fastball to the curve and a change in eye levels, Nola could be primed for his first 200 strikeout season.

His expected statistics from last year do not hint at major regression. Nola finished with a 3.47 bbFIP compared to his 3.54 ERA, almost in direct line. xSTATS also scored his xOBA (on-base average) at .284 and his exit velocity allowed at 85.3 MPH. Since all of the projections on Nola align closely, here’s the average from Steamer, Depth Charts and ZiPS:

  • Aaron Nola’s cumulative 2018 projections averaged: 12 wins, 3.57 ERA, 183:49 K:BB in 178.7 innings and a 1.21 WHIP.

Since wins proves to be a fluky category, 12 seems like a nice number to settle on with room for growth with some luck. Most likely to grow will be the strikeouts if Nola can reach 185 innings with the chance to exceed 200 this year. If, Nola uses the top of the strike zone more, he could lower the ERA and WHIP slightly, but the ones above seem right but it would not be a surprise to see him beat them.

All in all, Aaron Nola seems on the precipice of a strong season. Health and how he performs will ultimately determine his outcomes, but if missing out on the consensus top four starters, Nola could be a strong anchor if paired with a solid number two to start formulating a strong pitching core without reaching too far.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, BaseballProspectus.com, xSTATS.org, BaseballSavant.com