| Age: | 33 |
| Bats/Throws: | R/R |
| Height/Weight: | 6'1", 205 lbs |
| Position: | Catcher |
Predicting outcomes for Robinson Chirinos seems difficult due to his volatile two halves last year along with his age while transitioning into the Rangers starting catcher this year. Chirinos gained fantasy owners attention with 12 home runs in the first half but his .218 average made some wary to add him. After the break, Chirinos benefited from a surge in his BABIP riding it to a .285/.399/.472 slash line, but he only hit five home runs over his last 144 at-bats. Thus the dilemma in predicting his outcomes.
On the one hand, his power seems steady in spite of the drop in the second half with a stable on-base skillset and opportunity. But, it seems Chirinos traded hard hit percentage (HH%) for contact after the break seen in the inflated slash line above. Before delving into his batted ball data, over the last three years, he’s logged 643 at-bats with 100 runs, 36 home runs, 92 RBI and a stolen base with a .240/.337/.476 slash line.
Shifting to his splits, Chirinos seems to hit much better in the second half than the first but a larger difference appears in his data versus pitchers depending on their handedness. Against southpaws, Chirinos rakes with 12 home runs in 177 at-bats (one every 14.75 at-bats) in this time frame with a .294/.390/.559 line. Versus right-handed pitchers, Chirinos hits a much more pedestrian .220/.318/.448 with 24 home runs in 464 at-bats (over every 19.33). Keep the home runs per at-bats in mind as this moves forward to gauge his projection.
Chirinos also hits much better at home, .257/.353/.479 than the road, .223/.322/.473 but with more power away from Texas with 21 of his 36 home runs the last three years on the road. Daily league players can note Chirinos makes a great play against left-handed pitching along with more power on the road if trends carry over. In order to discern how he can do over a full season as the starting catcher with Texas, his batted ball information could be telling.
Since Chirinos did not garner much playing time until the second half of 2016, here’s a look at his spray chart since, including last year courtesy of MLBfarm.com:
It’s apparent Chirinos prefers to pull the ball for power as evidenced in the chart. Also, keep in mind 12 of these home runs happened in the first half which could prove to be an outlier in his overall profile. In order to understand this premise, here’s his last three halves in chart form with key areas of batted ball data:
During the first half of 2017, Chirinos seemed to really trade plate discipline with a low walk rate, high fly ball percentage but it yielded his best home run per fly ball percentage and hard hit percentage. However, it seems Chirinos seems to revert to the player seen in the second half of 2016 and the second half of last year. Trading the power for a low average may not fit his needs or that of the Rangers. While his home run per fly ball rate of one every 17.86 at-bats the last three years seems enticing, his number in the second halves of the last two years drops to one very 31 at-bats. Which number he migrates towards will ultimately determine his power ceiling for 2018, which seems under debate.
Prior to trying to arrive at a projection, the Rangers beat writer, Gerry Fraley, reported Texas will not play Chirinos in day games following night games (34 times on the schedule) and they hope to keep his total games under 128 to keep him healthy. Bear in mind, Chirinos will turn 34 in June. With all of this in mind, it seems, with health, Chirinos should be in line for 400 or more at-bats. Only nine catchers reached his mark last year, so it’s not underwhelming by any means.
Chirinos averaged 330 feet per fly ball in play last year. This matches such players as Jay Bruce, Paul DeJong and Stephen Piscotty. Not too shabby. Even with a fly ball and home run per fly ball percentage in line with his second halves of the last two years, Chirinos should be productive slotting seventh in the Rangers batting order. Combined last year, the players who hit seventh in Texas scored 94 runs and drove in 88 with 577 at-bats. Using this as a guideline, then adjusting for a realistic number of at-bats will be how his projection in this chart compares with other sites:
Taking the under on Depth Charts aggressive at-bats projection with some regression baked in on the power but higher than Steamer or ZiPS in regards to his slash lines, hopefully being realistic. At his present average draft position as the 16th catcher taken in round 17 in the NFBC, Chirinos seems like a reasonable player to take a chance on. Since catcher as a position proves volatile due to the physical demands, Chirinos being a clear number one on a team which will score runs puts him a nice spot to contribute under the radar. Those in two catcher formats can target him as a number two, with number one upside, if the power migrates toward his first half of last season.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, MLBfarm.com, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski, Rosterresrouce.com, MLB.com