J.D. Martinez

Age:30
Bats/Throws:R/R
Height/Weight:6'3", 221 lbs
Position:Outfield

Perceived as one of the best hitters on the free agent market, J.D. Martinez languished most of the off-season prior to agreeing to an intriguing contract with Boston. Suffice it to say, each side needed each other. Last year, Boston’s cleanup hitters slashed a cumulative .240/.322/.423 with Hanley Ramirez playing through injury and Mitch Moreland miscast in the role. These two led the team in games hitting fourth accounting for 124 last year.

Although it’s open to debate if Martinez will hit third or fourth, he’s going to do the heavy lifting in terms of run production when he’s in the lineup. Of course, injuries the last four years limited Martinez to playing 123 games or fewer three times, but he enters 2018 healthy unlike last year.

Speaking of last year, Martinez finished as one of the five players to hit 40 home runs or more and represents the only one to finish with an average over three hundred. Two rivals, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton each hit more than 50 with an average over .280 with the other two to launch more than 40 hitting .247 or below (Khris Davis and Joey Gallo). Fantasy pundits will speak of power being more prevalent in drafts, but power hitters with a chance to hit over three hundred? They’re pretty rare.

In fact, of the 19 players to record at least 35 homers in 2017, six hit over .300 including Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Ryan Zimmerman, Marcell Ozuna and Charlie Blackmon to join Martinez. But they all played at least 144 games compared to the 119 by Martinez. Trying to discern the impact of moving to Fenway for home games along with how many games Martinez will play goes a long way towards determining his fantasy value for the upcoming year. Time to explore.

For starters, looking at the batted-ball data by Martinez last season, he registered career highs in home-run-per-flyball percentage (33.8 percent), hard-hit percentage (49 percent), weighted on-base average (.430) and weighted runs created plus (166). When moving to Statcast, Martinez ranks as a hero in their metrics placing second in barrels per plate appearance (12.3) in 308 batted ball events, recorded an exit velocity of 95 MPH+ in 48.4 percent of these events, hit his average home runs 412 feet and finished first in average flyball distance at 358 feet.

Over the last three years, Martinez logged 1,488 at-bats with 247 runs, 105 home runs, 274 RBI and eight stolen bases with a .296/.363/.580 slash line. Here’s how his numbers rank in this time frame:

  • Tied for seventh in home runs but only player with less than 400 games played
  • Sixth in wRC+ (147), wOBA (.393)
  • First in isolated power (.284)
  • First in hard hit percentage (44 percent)
  • Fourth in home run per fly ball percentage (24 percent)

While his numbers above jump off the page, Martinez does sacrifice some discipline for power with a strikeout percentage of at least 24.8 percent or higher in each of the last three seasons. But, he does walk at least 8 percent or better in this same time frame reaching double digits (10.8 percent) last year. Here’s a 30-game rolling chart illustrating his weighted on-base average, home run per fly ball percentage and strikeout percentage the last three years:

With a solid baseline in all of the slash numbers and fully supported by underlying metrics, its time to transition to his power. Martinez averaged a home run every 14.17 at-bats the last three seasons. In order to illustrate his transition to Fenway, first, here’s a look at his home runs from last year using a chart from hittrackeronline.com which no longer seems to exist, but saved prior to its disappearance:

This takes into account the landing spots for home runs, but like the BaseballSavant.com chart, does not account for line drives or fly balls which could hit the monster instead of clearing it. In spite of this, here’s his spray chart from last year with Fenway as the backdrop:

Transitioning to a new team can be daunting for players, especially if they’re trying to justify signing a huge contract. However, Martinez expected to be more valued in the market and potentially signed for less than he perceived he’s worth. This should be an important point, since Martinez could be playing with a chip on his shoulder to prove others wrong, not trying to hard to make fans happy. Plus, after his trade to the Diamondbacks last year where he joined a team in the pennant chase, Martinez assimilated quickly.

With Arizona, Martinez hit a robust .302/.366/.741 in 62 games tallying 29 home runs and 65 RBI in 47 games hitting fifth along with 15 at cleanup. Moving to Boston, and to a higher spot in the batting order, Martinez should be able to rack up counting statistics. The Red Sox cleanup hitters accrued 83 runs in spite of their paltry average and on-base percentage with 93 RBI in 645 at-bats. Here’s where things get slippery for Martinez who’s averaged 496 at-bats the last three years.

How many at-bats will he finish with? Shifting to the primary designated hitter should keep him healthier with appearances in the outfield if injuries occur or to maximize a lineup. Of the projection modules, only one of the three’s willing to gamble on more than 500 at-bats:

Trying to forecast Martinez could be tricky due to his volatility due to injuries. However, playing for his next contract motivated to prove teams wrong could keep his last three-year averages in line along with helping players like Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi more valuable due to his presence in the lineup. There should be plenty of traffic on the bases ahead of Martinez to reach at least 100 RBI in 490 or more at-bats. Repeating 40 or more home runs can be open for debate, but paying for 37 and benefiting from more makes sense. Runs will depend on volume and could rise if he ascends to third in the lineup (where he belongs) cementing his status in the second round in 15-team drafts with justification for those who want to reach for him sooner.

A perfect storm of production with higher placement in the lineup on a potential playoff team could pay off for J.D. Martinez despite not attaining the pay day he felt he deserved. Allow others to be scared off by the injury concerns and take a chance on Martinez if he’s there at his present average draft position of 25, which will be sure to rise with his signing with Boston. Power’s not nearly as abundant as some make it seem, especially tied to a hitter with a .296 average the last three years.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, Hittrackeronline.com, BaseballSavant.com, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski, Rosterresource.com