After recording back-to-back seasons with at least 475 at-bats with the Nationals in 2015 and 2016, Wilson Ramos missed most of 2017 due to off-season knee surgery. He did return for 64 games for the Rays with 11 home runs in 208 at-bats and 35 RBI, primarily in the second half. At a time when many catcher situations seems to be progressing towards timeshares, Ramos will be in line to accrue most of the work behind the dish in Tampa Bay. Yet he remains near the tail end of the top-10 at his position in average draft position.

Worries over his durability could drive his current ADP, but over the last three years, Ramos averages a home run every 24.27 at-bats with a .267/.304/.431 slash line. Last year, he tied for second in average fly ball distance, 355 feet, with Joey Gallo and Giancarlo Stanton. Of course, with a smaller sample size due to his injury and a propensity to hit ground balls, this may be skewed but not ignored.

While his slash lines on the surface seem steady from the last three seasons, other numbers seem to fluctuate. Last year, Ramos recorded a .262 BABIP with a .260 average but two years ago, his similar BABIP of .256 yielded a .207 average. Of course, the outlier in all of this occured in 2016 when Ramos hit .307 with a .327 BABIP. Ramos also pulled the ball a career high 47 percent of the time in 2017 compared to 30 percent in his prior season. Ground balls seem to cap power upside, but Ramos does accumulate home runs due to his average fly ball distance when he can create lift on a pitch. First, here’s his spray chart from MLBfarm.com from the last three years:

Note the large amount of ground outs to his pull side of the field in spite of being able to hit the ball out in the air to right field. For his career, Ramos hits ground balls almost three out of every four at-bats when pulling the ball. But, when he goes to the opposite field, Ramos hits a fly ball 51 percent of the time. Interesting to say the least.

In an effort to discern if Ramos sold out for the home runs last year, here’s his pull percentage, O-swing rate (swings and misses at pitches outside the strike zone) and home run per fly percentage from the last three years in a 30-game rolling basis:

More than once, Ramos did marry a power spike with pull percentage, his aggressiveness and home run per fly ball rate. But the impact of pronounced pull tendencies over a full season does not exist in his profile. When trying to figure out where Ramos could be going with his numbers, it’s still open to some conjecture. Suffice it to say, he could hit 20 or more home runs this year, as long as he reaches 475 or more at-bats.

With health, Ramos should reach this number aided by the chance to appear as the designated hitter with the Rays as well as being their primary catcher. Armed with steady contact and swinging strike percentages, the variance lies in his O-swing along with pull rates. Could going back to his old ways raise his average without sacrificing power? First, here’s his three year hit location chart to accompany the spray chart above:

It seems closing off right field will not limit his ability to produce power, but he’s hit 20 to the opposite field the last three seasons in 499 at-bats at a rate (one every 24.95 at-bats) similar to his total in this time frame. With a higher fly ball rate. Until the season starts, it’s unknown if Ramos will proliferate the pull surge of last year, but it’s worth watching.

As for his projection this year, throw out the high average of 2016 and the crater in 2015 with last year’s .260 as a baseline for determining how Ramos will hit for average. All three of the projection systems referenced agree on this premise. It remains to be seen his total home run outcome along with counting stats. For starters, here’s Ramos numbers from the referenced sites:

Hitters batting sixth last year for Tampa Bay scored 75 runs and drove in 81 in 599 at-bats. If Ramos can accrue 500 at-bats, he could be in line for improvement in these categories. However, his low on-base percentage caps upside in runs. With some luck, Ramos could reach 55-to-60 runs and drive in 65-to-70 with enough at-bats if he does indeed hit sixth. A return to the 20 home run mark seems within reach with him maintaining his three year at-bat per home run rate. Any home run total over 20 seems like gravy, but he’s reached 22 before. Last year, only two catchers exceeded 500 at-bats (J.T. Realmuto and Yadier Molina). While Ramos may not represent tantalizing upside, he’s a very solid bet to reach his projections above with room for growth in counting statistics.

This means he’s actually being slightly undervalued in average draft position and making Ramos a nice pivot play after the 10th round in most 15-team drafts.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, MLBfarm.com, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski