MLB Streaks & Trends: Harper for...MVP?

Who's Hot

Bryce Harper, Philadelphia

Looking for a wild card in the National League MVP race? Harper's carrying his team with a .395/.519/.977 slash the last two weeks over 13 games and 55 plate appearances. He's generated 15 runs, five home runs, 10 RBI and four stolen bases. His ridiculous .581 isolated power and .589 weighted on-base average (wOBA) stand out amongst his peers. Plus, his 35 batted ball events in this sample includes 11 barrels (31.4 barrel percentage) and 19 hard hits (54.3 hard hit percentage). 

Kyle Tucker, Houston

Surging down the stretch, Tucker's making good on his expected numbers with continued positive regression. Note his expected numbers in our weekly charts. During the last two weeks, he's hitting .467/.538/.911 with 14 runs, four home runs, 10 RBI and a stolen base in 53 plate appearances. He's drawn seven walks against four walks in them and his 42 batted ball events yield five barrels (11.9 percent) along with 21 hard hits (50 percent). 

Austin Hays, Baltimore

Building for next year, the Orioles proved pesky versus the Yankees and Hays may be sowing the seeds for a sustained breakout in 2022. He's launched six home runs over the last two weeks with 15 RBI and a robust .296/.345/.722 slash line. With an isolated power of .426 in this time frame, he's produced 42 batted ball events with six barrels (14.3 barrel percentage) and 18 hard hits (42.9 percent) in them. 

Who's Not

Adalberto Mondesi, Kansas City

Considered a potential league winner in September, Mondesi's racking up stolen bases with seven over the last two weeks in only 42 plate appearances in 11 contests, but he's only hitting .158/.220/.237 in them. One of the most confounding players in fantasy baseball, how he finishes the year may determine his draft capital in 2022, stay tuned. 

Trent Grisham, San Diego

Cratering once again, Grisham's mired in a slump the last two weeks batting .095/.111/.119 through 45 plate appearances in 11 games. Of more concern, his 37.8 strikeout percentage and zero walks. Monitor his finish but he may be fighting for at-bats in 2022 if his discipline metrics remain in decline. 

David Fletcher, Los Angeles Angels

Noted as a contact hitter who provides batting average insulation, Fletcher's hitting a paltry .104/.204/.104 his last 12 games spanning 54 plate appearances. Better days lie ahead since his .116 BABIP will improve, but if he's not getting on base, there's not much value in keeping him active in lineups right now. 

Migration to the Mean

Starling Marte, Oakland

Amidst a career year in his Age-32 season, Marte could finish in the top five of both leagues in stolen bases this season. Currently, he's tied for fourth with 23 in 42 games with Oakland in the American League and sits fourth in the National League after swiping 22 bases in 64 games with Miami. Through 106 games this year he owns a .321/.396/.467 slash line with 82 runs, 11 home runs, 46 RBI and 45 stolen bases. Noting he's recorded a career high BABIP and unsure of his team next season as a pending free agent, will he be taken in the late first round or early second round because of his stolen base potential? Will he hit above .300? Here's his expected numbers based on quality of contact this year: 

• .321 batting average versus a .275 expected batting average (xBA) - minus 46 points
• .467 slugging percentage versus a .429 expected slugging (xSLG) - minus 38 points
• .374 wOBA versus a .347 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) - minus 27 points

Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay

Maybe the expected numbers weigh against Arozarena but he's been solid this year, just not the ceiling play many hoped for after a playoff run among the ages last season. Over 127 games this year, spanning 545 plate appearances, he's scored 87 runs with 19 home runs, 64 RBI and 14 stolen bases with a .270/.349/.455 slash. But, in the second half he's produced nine home runs with 23 RBI and only three steals but hitting .307 with a .938 OPS along with a higher strikeout rate. Stay tuned if this fuels the breakout in 2022 or if this will be his baseline going forward. If he regresses towards his expected numbers though, it could be a rough one: 

• .270 batting average versus a .215 xBA - minus 55 points
• .455 slugging percentage versus a .360 xSLG - minus 95 points
• .374 wOBA versus a .347 xwOBA - minus 27 points

Marcus Semien, Toronto

For the second time in three seasons, Semien's producing across all fantasy categories in fantasy. With one more home run, he will become the second player this year with at least 40 home runs and 15 stolen bases. After 146 contests he's accrued 653 plate appearances with 105 runs, 39 home runs, 94 RBI and 15 steals with a .270/.342/.540 slash line. Career year or repeatable if he re-signs with Toronto? 

• .270 batting average versus a .239 xBA - minus 31 points
• .540 slugging percentage versus a .438 xSLG - minus 102 points
• .372 wOBA versus a .329 xwOBA - minus 43 points
   

Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com