Labeling a player as a breakout with this pedigree can be misleading. However, a low batting average during his rookie season and returning from a torn hip flexor this year may depress his draft capital in 2022. Before delving into the data, Luis Robert may be a hotly debated player next season, but if he carries over his recent gains in terms of plate discipline and production, a 30-plus home and 30-plus stolen base campaign could be on tap soon for the talented White Sox outfielder. 

First, it's remarkable he returned this season when it appeared it could be over running out a play at first base causing the tear in his hip. Then viewing his .344/.381/.538 slash line in 2021 through 226 plate appearances in 52 games seems fortunate. Now, there will be some streakiness in his game, it's apparent breaking down his first 107 games in the majors. It's like four seasons within two. 

Young hitters with spotty plate discipline often go through a prolonged slump, or improve their skill set in a consolidation phase. When viewing his numbers after breaking them down into four segments based on the two halves of 2020 and his pre and post injury results this year, there's something afoot. Check out his contact percentage, swinging strike rate and strikeout percent in this chart: 

Saying he will not only finish 2021 with the discipline gains would be a bit aggressive, like his nature in the batter's box. However, if he truly consolidated his skill set during his batting average crater in the second half of 2020, or the second line above, things get interesting. Producing more doubles this year depresses his home run total. Just remember the torn hip flexor. When viewing his Statcast data in these same time frames, his batted ball events (BBE), maximum exit velocities and hard hits also illustrate a hitter making strides: 

Focus on the total number of events in the last sample through Monday's games this season. Yes, there's a dip in MaxEV, but he's also nearing his hard hit rate during his debut last year. Everyone wants a sure thing in drafts, but there's a ceiling on Robert which may be matched if he somehow drifts into the third round in preseason average draft position for 2022. Where he settles in may fluctuate, but while many may reach for Kyle Tucker in the first round, I prefer waiting on our breakout candidate. Especially if he hits first or second next season. 

Noting maximum exit velocity can be a predictor of power growth, with health, there's time he matches his career best of 115.8 MPH before 2021 expires. Diving a bit deeper into his Statcast metrics, Robert's improved his sweet spot percentage and hard hit rate this season while maintaining his line drive percent over 33 once again. Expected statistics weigh quality of contact and he owns a .287 expected batting average with a .475 expected slugging and .348 expected weighted on-base average. These all reside below his actual numbers, but they align with his career numbers so far. 

Using Baseball-Reference's 162 game average results taking into account his production as a major leaguer, his numbers would pace as such: 680 plate appearances, 98 runs, 27 home runs, 87 RB, 21 stolen bases and a .290/.341/.488 slash line. Could this represent his floor, though his batting average will be open for debate? 

Some may glean his results from this season seeing the drop in speed without accounting for the severity of his injury and he's still stolen five bases in 52 contests. Then, if he converts some of his 18 doubles into home runs after getting fully healthy in the off-season, look out. Here's his spray chart of games played through September 13th: 

Of Robert's seven home runs in this time frame, five rate as no-doubters (71.4 percent), or a home run in any major league ballpark. Then bring in the discipline gains into the conversation. Comparing his numbers in some key categories from 2020 and this year yields these results: 

  • Robert in 2020: 81.1 zone swing percentage, 68.5 zone contact rate, 57.6 swing percentage, 41.5 whiff rate
  • Robert in 2021: 85.4 zone swing percentage, 84.2 zone contact rate, 63 swing percentage, 27.4 whiff rate

He's decreased his strikeout percentage, swinging more in 2021 at pitches, missing less and producing for a team headed for the playoffs. Robert's made a quantum leap viewing his swing and take chart on Statcast which finished at zero last year: 

Putting all of this together, here's his 10-game rolling game average from Fangraphs displaying their discipline metrics of interest: