Welcome into the last month of the fantasy baseball season. With roster cutdowns across the NFL and upcoming drafts, if you're reading this, thanks for staying on the grind. It's rare when a rookie consolidates his skills in-season and within such a short span of time, but Wander Franco extended his on-base streak to 31 games, fifth best ever in the majors for any Age-20 or younger player. With so many rookies struggling across the fantasy landscape, he's done the opposite. 

Franco's hit safely in 13 of his last 14 games and owns a .314/.385/.504 slash line in his on-base streak spanning 135 plate appearances with 30 runs, three home runs and 23 RBI. Settling into third in the lineup, he's also recorded an 8.9 walk percentage against a 9.6 strikeout rate during this stretch. More impressive, his 6.7 swinging strike percentage with an 86.9 contact rate and a 94.8 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percent. Only seven players boast a higher Z-Contact since July 25th, when the on-base commenced. For the visual crowd, check out his rolling game chart with wOBA (weighted on-base average), strikeout percentage and walk rate included: 

It's rare when a rookie's walking more than he's striking out, especially in our current environment in the major leagues. Since it can be fun tracking down records, Mickey Mantle owns the best on-base streak for an Age-20 or younger season with 36 in 1952 during which he recorded a .287/.38/.473 slash line. Frank Robinson boasts an MLB best 43 game on-base streak for an Age-20 or younger season in 1956 with a .340/.450/.599 slash.

Overall, Franco's played in 54 games for the Rays accruing 238 plate appearances with 42 runs, six home runs, 33 RBI, two stolen bases and a .273/.336/.440 line. However, he entered the All-Star break hitting .197 and through 39 games in the second half, he's hitting .303 raising his average appreciably. His foundation, a strong approach at the plate with above average discipline metrics during his adjustment in the majors. 

Even with his slow start, Franco's registered a 90.5 Z-Contact percentage so far, drawing a walk in eight percent of his plate appearances and a 14.3 strikeout rate. Those gleaning end of the year results may overlook his adjustment period. 

A key for his 2022 outlook lies in his batted ball data. If Franco improves his quality of contact in September, he could be a 20-plus home run hitter with double digit stolen base upside and hit .290 or higher as soon as next season. However, over his first 183 batted ball events on Statcast, he's produced 10 barrels (5.5 percent) with a 33.3 SweetSpot percentage and a 36.6 hard hit rate. 

His expected numbers align well with results to this point boasting a .272 expected batting average, a .404 expected slugging and a .329 expected weighted on-base average. Franco owns a 45.9 ground ball rate which can succeed with his 88th percentile speed rating, but if he's hoping for more power in the future, his 23.5 fly ball rate and 24 line drive percentage need improving. For now, focus on his 49.4 swing percent and below league average 17.5 whiff rate. And imagine when he starts hitting pitches in the heart of the strike zone better: 

Within his Age-20 season, Franco's generated 12 doubles, three triples and six home runs with 17 of his 47 hits in the second resulting in extra-bases. Definitely a positive sign. Building on this momentum remains a key towards forecasting his future as a fantasy standout. Fusing his discipline and improving his stolen base acumen would be a boon for 2022. During his time in the minors, Franco recorded a .332/.398/.536 during 214 games and 945 plate appearances. He stole 27 bases but in 48 attempts (56 percent success rate). 

Putting all of this together, a 20 year old switch hitter on a playoff contender breaking out beneath the radar puts Franco firmly on the radar for 2022. He's not a sleeper or a post-hype candidate, just a rookie with talent and upside. Noting he's a switch hitter, here's his spray chart through his first 54 contests: 

With 30 games left for Tampa Bay, Franco's rest-of-the-season projections come in favorably despite his limited sample size: 

There's an outside chance he reached 10-plus home runs with five stolen bases in around 80 games this year. If he hits .275 or better, it's icing on the cake. Taking a page from the Juan Soto disciplined approach, Wander Franco could make a run at Rookie of the Year despite his delayed debut. Use the last month for assessment purposes, but the breakout's in full effect for this wunderkind. 

Statistical Credits: 

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

BaseballSavant.com

THE BAT and THE BAT X courtesy of Derek Carty

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymoborski

Steamerprojections.com