Taking note of a player quietly breaking out this season with focus on so many other situations around baseball can be very valuable when preparing for 2022 drafts. With so many rookies struggling during the transition to the majors, when one goes through some struggles early on then emerges with better numbers, it needs to be acknowledged. This applies to Jonathan India of the Reds. He's emerging at a top-10 option at second base for next season but not many people seem to celebrate this. 

Why? Well, it's two-fold. First, he's accumulating beneficial counting statistics and plays in perhaps the most hitter friendly park in the majors. He's also taken over second base carrying over his strong on-base abilities displayed in the minors. While fantasy players chase upside during any season, getting steady producers with plate discipline sometimes goes overlooked.

Starting with his minor league results, he owned an on-base rate of 37 percent and produced 11 home runs with home runs along with 11 stolen bases across two levels. Making the most of his time at the alternate site last year, India found his way to second base with Cincinnati at the onset of the season. And he's made the most of it. 

Through 96 games he's accumulated 398 plate appearances with 59 runs, 11 home runs, 44 RBI and seven stolen bases with a .279/.401/.445 slash line. Yes, he's increased his on-base rate as a rookie when the league average sits at .316 with batting averages plummeting across the landscape. Then factor in India's on pace for double digits in home runs and steals while taking over hitting leadoff for his team. 

After a slow start, India's turned things around and over his last 30 days of results hitting .318/.450/.568 with 20 runs (tied for fourth in the majors), five home runs and 12 RBI. He's also displayed growth in his discipline metrics with a 7.4 swinging strike percentage, 78.4 contact rate and 87.1 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage over these 109 plate appearances. It can be perceived as a hot streak, and it could be, but when a young hitter improves his rate of contact, especially in the strike zone, he's adjusting to his new level of competition. Check out his rolling game chart showing weighted on-base average (wOBA), walk rate and Z-Contact percentage: 

For the season, he's recorded a 9.6 swinging strike percentage with a 75.2 contact rate and 84.4 Z-Contact percent with 240 batted ball events producing 24 barrels (10 percent) and 91 hard hits (38.3 percent). His 30.4 sweet spot percentage leaves room for growth until the end of the season but his expected weighted on-base average on contact (xwOBAcon) of .392 sits almost 30 points over league average (.363). 

Although his expected numbers suggest some luck, they're based on quality of contact, which lagged at the start of the season adjusting to the majors. Check out his monthly splits courtesy of Fangraphs:

Looking closely at these splits, India went through a consolidation of his skill set in May and surged since. Since taking over at leadoff, he's logged 237 plate appearances with 43 runs, seven home runs, 21 RBI, four stolen bases and a .297/.428/.479 slash with a .399 wOBA plus a 14.3 walk rate. This coincides with his strong results from June forward in the chart above. 

Some will question his power since there's a lack of track record in the minors and his home ballpark. First, here's his spray chart through his first 96 contests in the majors:

Of his 11 home runs, eight qualify as no-doubters, or a home run in all 30 major league ballparks for a robust 72.7 no-doubt percentage of them. He also owns a speed rating in the 86th percentile in the majors. Speed with power and plate discipline? Seems like terrific building points for the rookie and imagine if he improves on contact in the strike zone:

When viewing his rest-of-the-season projections from varying systems, they do not account for the in-season strided made by India but here's how they look as of this writing:

Even if India regresses to the batting averages displayed above, using THE BAT X's counting numbers puts him on pace for 19 home runs and nine stolen bases with an average around .270 in his rookie season. More importantly, he could score almost 70 runs with about 60 RBI. Take all of this into account and be willing to target him above his average draft position next season. Trust the results to this point and monitor how he finishes the position but when everyone touts him as a breakout candidate for 2022, remain ahead of the game knowing he sowed the seeds from June on with the Reds. 

Statistical Credits: 

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

THE BAT and THE BAT X courtesy of Derek Carty

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski