Discerning between another hot streak by Jesse Winker or an actual breakout determines his status in fantasy and with the Reds. He's in the midst of a 12-game hit streak during which he's 21-for-54 (.389/.431/.759) with 10 runs, five home runs and 12 RBI. His slash line in it almost resembles his season line of .397/.443/.740 over 18 games spanning 79 plate appearances. However, many remember his surge last season followed by a crater down the stretch. 

Focusing on plate discipline, batted ball data and early results hopefully shed some light on Winker as a breakout during his Age-27 season, otherwise known as the start of a player's power peak. 

Plate Discipline

Diving right into this exercise, his rolling spray chart from the last three years not only illustrates his spike in 2020, it also displays his consistent start to 2021: 

There's no denying his tremendous surge last year and of course, the downturn shortly after it. This season, things seem to be settling in. For instance, Winker's kept his swinging strike percentage stable just over 10 percent in each season. But, he's increased his contact rate by 2.1 percent this year and his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage sits at 82.1, 1.5 points higher than his total in 2020. While his walk percentage remains below his career average, he's making the most of his contact this year with tremendous results. Regression to the mean will happen in terms of his batting average since a .451 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) cannot be sustained over the course of a 162 game season. 

However, when viewing his actual versus expected numbers, the migration to the mean may not be as drastic as 2020. Sweet spot percentage on Statcast quantifies quality of contact. Winker owns a 43.9 sweet spot percentage this season, up over six percentage points compared to last season's total. His power uptick coincides with this number on the rise. So far, so good. 

Batted Ball Events

According to Statcast, Winker's first 57 batted ball events yielded 11 barrels (19.3 percent) with 31 hard hits (events with an average velocity of 95 MPH or better) fueling a 54.4 hard hit rate. He's producing fewer ground balls with more fly ball events and an impressive 29.8 line drive percentage. Best of all, he's not selling out discipline or relying on pulling the ball during this sample. Last year, he did. 

Starting with his spray chart and slice chart from 2020, check out Winker's results: 

With 40 percent of his results channeled towards right-center, Winker enjoyed the spike in power but focused too much on it. It's apparent the league adjusted to his propensity of pulling the ball and pitched him as such. This caused his late season swoon and may be the consolidation of skills needed to fuel this year's breakout. 

Moving to his early outcomes in 2021, his Statcast data and spray chart jump off the page: 

He's hit more home runs to the left side of center field than the right, letting pitches travel deeper into the strike zone and still driving them with aplomb. Also, he's going with pitches, not trying to pull them evidenced by the evolution so far in his slice chart: 

Batting lead-off ensures he receives a steady diet of fastballs which he's hit five of his six home runs against with a .489 average and .355 expected batting average (xBA). Even with some regression in the offing, at a time when the league wide batting average sits at .233, Winker may be a unicorn in fantasy providing power with an average above three hundred. His batted ball distribution of 24.6 percent to the opposite field, 43.9 straight and only 31.6 percent to his pull side insulates continued success. He's using the whole field and not trying to do too much. 

Rest-of-the-season Outlook

Noting he will not hit .397 all season, what could his numbers look like over the remainder of the season? Starting with his projection sets, not too shabby: 

If these come to fruition, and taking THE BAT X's as the example, Winker would finish with a career high 26 home runs with 76 runs, 72 RBI and a .295 batting average. Taking the over on the runs and maybe even the RBI with how well Cincinnati's producing at home. 

There's information to still be digested over the coming months but the breakout of Jesse Winker may remain in full effect if he keeps the discipline gains with an all fields approach. His power could even tick up with more pulled batted ball events. Heed the consistent results in his predictors and track his season going forward. Right now, everything points to this being a breakout rather than a hot streak. 

 

Statistical Credits: 

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

Steamerprojections.com

THE BAT and THE BAT X courtesy of Derek Carty