Zach Davies

24 years old

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’0”, 160 lbs

Position: Starting Pitcher

THE NUMBERS

 

LEVEL

W-L

ERA

WHIP

K/9

BB/9

IP

2012

A

5-7

3.86

1.36

7.2

3.6

114.1

2013

High-A

7-9

3.69

1.23

8.0

2.3

148.2

2014

AA

10-7

3.35

1.26

8.9

2.6

110.0

2015

AAA

6-8

3.30

1.36

7.2

3.4

128.1

2015

MLB

3-2

3.71

1.21

6.4

4.0

34.0

2016

AAA

0-0

2.00

0.89

11.0

2.0

9.0

2016

MLB

11-7

3.97

1.25

7.4

2.1

163.1

Career

 

14-9

3.92

1.24

7.3

2.4

197.1

THE SKILLS

Davies doesn’t have elite stuff. Neither does Kyle Hendricks though he broke out last season, but that’s another story. So, let me be clear about that right off the top. Davies isn’t going to pull a “Hendricks” this season, though he was under consideration for my call for breakout star of the year on the bump. Ultimately, I just don’t think the stuff is good enough with Davies. But Zach was under consideration for my breakout pitcher call of the year, so let’s explore why he was on the list of finalists, even if he wasn’t ultimately chosen the winner.

Davies doesn’t profile as a breakout star physically. He’s barely six feet tall and may weigh 160 pounds. Maybe.

Davies minor league numbers are moderate but uninspiring.

Davies doesn’t have one elite level offering. In fact, his only plus pitch would be his changeup, and it’s pretty darn good, though I would stop short of calling it elite.

Davies saw growth last season in the strikeout and walk columns, though he only threw 34 innings as a rookie in 2015 so that’s a pretty small sample size to suggest he improved upon it.

Davies had a 7.44 K/9 rate last season. That’s a solid number. However, it’s well below the 7.8 strikeout per nine mark of the average big league starter last season. He had a swinging strike rate last season of just 8.4 percent, light years off the 10.1 league mark last season. There isn’t likely to be much strikeout growth the coming season. There might even be some pullback.

Davies walked 2.09 batters per nine last season. That’s an excellent mark. However, the walk rate the first 544.1 professional innings he tossed was 2.94 per nine. It’s unknown if he can hold on to the 2.09 mark he posted last season.

Davies posted a 45.5 percent ground ball rate last season giving him a 47.5 percent ground ball rate in his young big-league career. That’s a very solid mark that would have ranked 25th amongst starter pitchers last season.

Add that all up and a 7.44 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 45.5 ground ball and 1.40 GB/FB ratio, mark Davies as a solid big league arm. Nothing truly stands out, but there’s nothing there that drags his profile into the trash either.

Let’s move forward.

SIERA, FIP and xFIP don’t believe is Davies being anything other than what his ERA says he is at this point, and his ERA says he’s a league average arm.

 

ERA

FIP

xFIP

SIERA

Career

3.92

3.88

3.95

4.11

Davies throws his fastball at 89.2 mph on his two-seam fastball. That’s not enough in today’s day and age. Amongst guys that threw 162 innings last season his fastball mph mark was the 6th lowest in baseball. It’s a really slow pitch. Out of those 73 starting pitchers, according to Pitch Values based on Pitch Type Linear Weights, his fastball was just 53rd in baseball last season. He’s not going to have a lot of success if he has to rely on the heater.

Davies best pitch is his changeup. It’s a really good pitch. In fact, Pitch Values had his change as the 9th best in baseball last season (maybe you consider that dominating? I think it’s close but not quite there as we will see in the OPS below). Here’s the interesting thing – he actually doesn’t throw the pitch enough. Here are his pitch usage rates for his career. I will also list his career OPS on the pitch.

 

Fastball

ChangeUp

Curveball

Cutter

Rate Thrown

54.3

21.5

10.4

9.7

OPS

.801

.624

.512

.647

*He’s thrown a slider at times to make up the difference in the marks above.

In the era of fastball/slider, Davies has turned back the clock 25 years to the fastball/changeup game of artfully pitching despite not having the stuff to dominate hitters. And that’s the biggest rub with Davies, he just doesn’t have room to miss. I heard Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris talking about Davies and they kept saying the phrase “a unicorn” when mentioning Davies name. What they meant was that Davies just doesn’t have the pure stuff to have the success he does have. The measureables suggest that Davies shouldn’t be as good as he is. The scouting reports suggest the same. That doesn’t mean guys like this can’t have success because they do every year (think Dan Straily, Mike Fiers or Marco Estrada). The point shouldn’t be lost on you though.
 
PLAYING TIME

Davies is locked into the starting rotation with the Brewers fully expecting the lithe righty making 30 starts this season.  

AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA

As of this writing, here is Davies ADP data.

 

Overall

Position Rank

NFBC

299.6

81st

MDA

293.9

72nd

Fantasy Alarm Player Rankings

CONCLUSION

(1) Zach Davies doesn’t miss enough bats. (2) He doesn’t strike out enough guys. (3) There is some concern with the growth he flashed last season being sustainable. (4) Though had has a solid 47.5 percent ground ball rate for his career his HR/9 mark is still 1.00 because when he makes a mistake batters hit the ball hard (his 33.8 hard hit rate last season and 22.0 percent line drive rates don’t exactly illicit cheers of excitement). I will say this. Davies can pitch. When he’s on he can carve up a club with that changeup. When he’s off though, he simply doesn’t own the stuff to work through an opposing lineup three times. I’m all about rostering Davies at his current cost, even if the profile isn’t completely that of a breakout star.

10-Team Mixed: With the lack of strikeouts in his profile, and not much in the way of a chance of all-star level ratios, Davies is barely rosterable in this format.  

12-Team Mixed: A perfect league size to speculate with Davies. If things don’t work out, you should still be able to find a viable option off waivers.

15-Team Mixed: Depends on your staff, but others will likely look past Davies, frequently, in a setup like this as they target those high-upside rookies that rarely seem to match up to the sky-high expectations that simply aren’t reasonable. Davies is gonna make starts and be solid. Count on it.

NL-Only League: Lots to like given the depressed cost relative to the likely return. Invest.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).