Is it Time to Replace Wins?

If I’m going to replace saves with something, as I did the other day with my article on SOLDS, then I might as well replace wins too. This article will explain why we should do it and what we could replace it with.

THE WIN

How does a pitcher earn a win? Here is the official definition for starting pitchers (from MLB.com).

10.17 Winning And Losing Pitcher

(a) The official scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher that pitcher whose team assumes a lead while such pitcher is in the game, or during the inning on offense in which such pitcher is removed from the game, and does not relinquish such lead, unless
(1) such pitcher is a starting pitcher and Rule 10.17(b) applies; or
(2) Rule 10.17(c) applies.
Rule 10.17(a) Comment: Whenever the score is tied, the game becomes a new contest insofar as the winning pitcher is concerned. Once the opposing team assumes the lead, all pitchers who have pitched up to that point and have been replaced are excluded from being credited with the victory. If the pitcher against whose pitching the opposing team gained the lead continues to pitch until his team regains the lead, which it holds to the finish of the game, that pitcher shall be the winning pitcher.
(b) If the pitcher whose team assumes a lead while such pitcher is in the game, or during the inning on offense in which such pitcher is removed from the game, and does not relinquish such lead, is a starting pitcher who has not completed
(1) five innings of a game that lasts six or more innings on defense, or
(2) four innings of a game that lasts five innings on defense, then the official scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher the relief pitcher, if there is only one relief pitcher, or the relief pitcher who, in the official scorer’s judgment was the most effective, if there is more than one relief pitcher.
Rule 10.17(b) Comment: It is the intent of Rule 10.17(b) that a relief pitcher pitch at least one complete inning or pitch when a crucial out is made, within the context of the game (including the score), in order to be credited as the winning pitcher. If the first relief pitcher pitches effectively, the official scorer should not presumptively credit that pitcher with the win, because the rule requires that the win be credited to the pitcher who was the most effective, and a subsequent relief pitcher may have been most effective. The official scorer, in determining which relief pitcher was the most effective, should consider the number of runs, earned runs and base runners given up by each relief pitcher and the context of the game at the time of each relief pitcher’s appearance. If two or more relief pitchers were similarly effective, the official scorer should give the presumption to the earlier pitcher as the winning pitcher.

Some data points that speak to the vagary of the win.

A hurler could allow no runs over nine innings and get a no-decision.

A hurler could allow one run over nine innings and get a loss.

A hurler could allow six runs over six innings and get a win.

These lines should point out the obvious – it’s not just how the pitcher performs that leads to a win, it also has to do with how the pitcher’s offense performs. Did the offense fail to produce runs leading to a wasted effort by the hurler? Did the offense explode all over the other teams hurler leading to an undeserved win?

So many things have to go right that are beyond the pitcher’s control. It’s not just offensive support either. What the defense behind the hurler? Was there an error that led to three unearned runs that wiped out a win? Did a manager place a guy over in the gap in the outfield only to have the batter hit the ball down the line? Did the pitcher make a great pitch that the hitter somehow dug out of the dirt for a base hit? Did the catcher allow a passed ball on a strikeout leading to a run?

Wins are the result of pitcher performance in the main, but it is by no means the only piece of the puzzle, not close.

David Price won 17 games with a 3.99 ERA.

Hisashi Iwakuma won 16 wins with a 4.12 ERA.

Chad Bettis won 14 games last season with a 4.79 ERA.

Julio Teheran won seven games with a 3.21 ERA.

Ervin Santana won seven games with a 3.38 ERA.

Marco Estrada won nine games with a 3.48 ERA.

It’s totally variable, the win, and it is that way every year.

HOW DO WE REPLACE WINS?

I don’t want to get completely rid of the idea of wins. Winning the game is the goal of any contest. The win is engrained in the fabric of baseball. We all understand the win.

So, let’s not remove wins completely. How about we use wins as part of the mix?

What about quality starts?

What is a quality start? According to MLB.com.

A starting pitcher records a quality start when he pitches at least six innings and allows three earned runs or fewer. A starting pitcher has two jobs: to prevent runs and get outs. The quality start statistic helps to quantify which pitchers did a "quality" job in those two departments.

‘But Ray, if you allow three runs in six innings you’re ERA is 4.50, and that ain’t good.’

True, but...

What about the above example where the hurler got the win while allowing six runs over six innings. That’s an ERA of 9.00 folks. That’s double the “poor” effort that a quality start reports. That’s horrendous.

I do like quality starts a bit though. You have to throw at least six innings providing some depth (it’s also, obviously an inning above the win limit). You can’t allow more than three earned runs, and that means that the hurler is still giving their club a chance to win.

Obviously quality starts isn’t good enough to replace wins. It doesn’t click off enough positives to overcome its negatives, so that it could replace wins. But, what about using both...

HOW ABOUT WE TRY...

I believe, I’m not positive but I think what I’m going to write is correct, that Ron Shandler decided to succinctly, dare I say eloquently, introduce a measure to replace wins. How about we try the following idea: let’s combine wins and quality starts. Let’s do it and look at the 2016 results.

Porcello led baseball in wins, and he leads in W/QS.

Verlander led the league in quality starts. He comes in fourth in W/QS.

Sees pretty solid at the start.

Of the nine guys with 40 W/QS, all nine won 15 games. All nine also had at least 21 quality starts.

Quintana is a huge mover up the list with W/QS. Shouldn’t he be? He pitched better than a 13-win pitcher, and this measure rewards him for that.

A loser, in a narrow sense of course, was Arrieta who actually had just one more win than quality starts last season. As I noted in his Player Profile, he really didn’t perform up to expectations last season, especially in the second half.

A little further down the list...

John Lackey and Jerad Eickhoff both won just 11 games. They ended the year with 31 W/QS.

Kenta Maeda won 16 games even though he was able to produce just 14 quality starts. He simply stopped going deep into games early in the year. If he pitches in the same manner this season he’s not going to win 16 games again.

Marco Estrada, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman all won just nine games. All three of them produced 18 quality starts. Their win total, if they pitch similarly, should improve in ‘17. 

Don’t know about you, but it seems like a very easy way to add a bit of depth to fantasy leagues, and even if it’s an incremental move, it’s still something positive we should consider.