Every year I try; every year I fail. I try to explain why there is a relatively simple, straightforward way to understand pitcher performance that is, in fact, a more accurate explanation of how pitchers perform. I understand that change is hard. I get it. I truly do. But perhaps 2017 will be the year people see the light. Let’s get to replacing WHIP, shall we?

Average Bases Allowed, or ABA, is an innovative way to look at pitcher’s effectiveness and it is designed to replace WHIP (Walks + Hits / IP). At the least, I would settle for it to be used alongside WHIP at the start, but I’m telling you folks that ABA is a much better way to look at hurlers, and it is very simple to compute. What spawned the idea of ABA? My desire for a measure more precise than WHIP. An example to illustrate the point:

Pitcher A allows one hit and one walk in two innings.
Therefore his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in two IP).

Pitcher B allows one hit and one walk in two innings.
Therefore, his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in two IP).

According to WHIP, both pitchers have performed the same. However, does that mean they were both equally effective in the real world? What if we added a bit more depth to our example by describing the type of hits each pitcher allowed? How would that look?

Pitcher A: Allowed a walk and a single in his two innings.
Pitcher B: Allowed a walk and a home run in his two innings.

Therefore…

It is reasonable to posit that Pitcher A had an ERA of zero, especially if each player to reach base was in a separate inning.

Pitcher B allowed a homer so his ERA has to be at least 4.50 ERA (one run in two innings). If Pitcher B walked a guy and then gave up a home run to the next batter, or in the same inning, he would have allowed two runs in two innings pushing his ERA up to 9.00.

While the hurlers may have the same WHIP, the result of their performances in the real world would have been drastically different if judged by the runs they allowed. Isn’t that what really matters, how many runs a pitcher allows?

Instead of using hits and walks as WHIP does, ABA replaces hits with total bases allowed. We can all agree there is a difference between a single and a homer right (or double/triple)? Why not try to utilize that information when judge pitcher’s performance? Think of it this way. Is it more important to know how many batters are allowed to reach base or is it more important to know how many bases they received when they reached base?

Exactly.

Here is the formula for ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

Let’s dig into things a bit by looking at two NL hurlers who had nearly identical WHIP marks in 2016 in Carlos Martinez (1.22) and Bartolo Colon (1.21).

Martinez: 128 singles, 25 doubles, 1 triple, 15 homers in 195.1 innings

Colon: 134 singles, 36 doubles, 6 triples, 24 homers in 191.2 innings

Remember, according to WHIP, the pitchers were a mere hundredth apart in WHIP. They were not equal according to ABA.

Martinez: 241 total bases + 70 BBs in 195.1 IP = ABA

Colon: 320 total bases + 32 BBs in 191.2 IP = ABA

Martinez had an ABA of 1.59 in 2016.

Colon had an ABA of 1.84 in 2016.

Martinez and Colon were not equal in 2016... even though WHIP says they were. That’s why ABA is so valuable. It takes the analysis to the next level, gives you just a bit more insight, and the result is that it shows you which pitchers are more effective (in this case, clearly it was Martinez).

How do you read ABA? Like WHIP, the lower the ABA the better, but ABA is not read on the same continuum as WHIP. Here is a key you can employ for ABA.

Below 1.55: elite level performance
1.55-1.75: All-Star level
1.75-1.90: Solid major leaguer worthy of counting on in fantasy
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an role as a weekly fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine for hitters

Here are the league averages the past three seasons.

 

Lg. ABA

2014

1.79

2015

1.86

2016

1.94

As you can see, hitters are gaining on pitchers quickly, and the rise in power, SLG has gone from .386 to .405 to .417 the last three seasons, causing ABA to rise significantly.

A final note on a weakness of Average Bases Allowed. ABA loves itself some ground ball action. Here is why. A home run is four total bases, the same total as four singles. Therefore, the guys that keep the ball in the yard and don't give up bombs are likely to finish a bit higher than you might expect. Keep in mind that the long ball can be particularly detrimental to relievers who give up a few too many in short order since they don't have enough innings to offset the short-term effect.

Let’s look at hurlers, broken down by innings pitched groupings.

160+ INNINGS PITCHED

PLAYER

TEAM

IP

TB

BB

WHIP

ERA

WHIP

ABA

Kyle Hendricks

CHC

190

219

44

0.98

2.13

0.98

1.38

Jon Lester

CHC

202.67

244

52

1.02

2.44

1.02

1.46

Jake Arrieta

CHC

197.33

217

76

1.08

3.10

1.08

1.48

Johnny Cueto

SF

219.67

286

45

1.09

2.79

1.09

1.51

Rick Porcello

BOS

223

308

32

1.01

3.15

1.01

1.52

Jose Fernandez

MIA

182.33

223

55

1.12

2.86

1.12

1.52

Tanner Roark

WSH

210

248

73

1.17

2.83

1.17

1.53

Madison Bumgarner

SF

226.67

297

54

1.02

2.74

1.02

1.55

Noah Syndergaard

NYM

183.67

243

43

1.15

2.60

1.15

1.56

Chris Sale

CHW

226.67

311

45

1.04

3.34

1.04

1.57

Corey Kluber

CLE

215

281

57

1.06

3.14

1.06

1.57

Max Scherzer

WSH

228.33

303

56

0.97

2.96

0.97

1.57

John Lackey

CHC

188.33

244

53

1.06

3.35

1.06

1.58

Aaron Sanchez

TOR

192

241

63

1.17

3.00

1.17

1.58

Justin Verlander

DET

227.67

304

57

1.00

3.04

1.00

1.59

Carlos Martinez

STL

195.33

241

70

1.22

3.04

1.22

1.59

Masahiro Tanaka

NYY

199.67

283

36

1.08

3.07

1.08

1.60

Julio Teheran

ATL

188

264

41

1.05

3.21

1.05

1.62

Kenta Maeda

LAD

175.67

235

50

1.14

3.48

1.14

1.62

J.A. Happ

TOR

195

269

60

1.17

3.18

1.17

1.69

Marco Estrada

TOR

176

235

65

1.12

3.48

1.12

1.70

Jose Quintana

CHW

208

306

50

1.16

3.20

1.16

1.71

Ervin Santana

MIN

181.33

261

53

1.22

3.38

1.22

1.73

Drew Pomeranz

BOS/SD

170.67

232

65

1.18

3.32

1.18

1.74

Jon Gray

COL

168

243

59

1.26

4.61

1.26

1.80

Matt Moore

SF/TB

198.33

286

72

1.29

4.08

1.29

1.81

Danny Duffy

KC

179.67

283

42

1.14

3.51

1.14

1.81

Jeremy Hellickson

PHI

189

297

45

1.15

3.71

1.15

1.81

Jeff Samardzija

SF

203.33

315

54

1.20

3.81

1.20

1.81

Matt Shoemaker

LAA

160

261

30

1.23

3.88

1.23

1.82

David Price

BOS

230

369

50

1.20

3.99

1.20

1.82

Cole Hamels

TEX

200.67

289

77

1.31

3.32

1.31

1.82

Bartolo Colon

NYM

191.67

320

32

1.21

3.43

1.21

1.84

Marcus Stroman

TOR

204

322

54

1.29

4.37

1.29

1.84

Zach Davies

MIL

163.33

264

38

1.25

3.97

1.25

1.85

CC Sabathia

NYY

179.67

268

65

1.32

3.91

1.32

1.85

Kyle Hendricks led the league in ERA at 2.13. He also led the league in ABA. Not surprising given his ground ball tendencies and lack of walks.

Did you notice that the top-3 men were all Cubs? Yep, they were.

So much for Cueto not being able to rebound after a down September/October in 2015.

Porcello is ranked 5th. Remember the caveat about the groundball and ABA, but it should also be pointed out that Porcello simply doesn’t beat himself with the free pass.

Scherzer had a dynamic 0.97 WHIP, but his ABA didn’t keep up. Why? He was battered by the home run ball (31 homers, 6th worst in baseball).

Martinez didn’t allow many homers, see above, and that allowed him to match Verlander in ABA though Verlander had an advantage of 0.22 in the WHIP category.

Estrada had an impressive 1.12 WHIP, but like Scherzer the homer caused his ABA to be higher than expected.

Sabathia was actually a passable option last season. He posted a mark better than Odorizzi and Archer.

The League Average was 1.94.

Before you get all excited about Ivan Nova, realize his mark was 2.00 which was, obviously, worse than the league average (and remember, ABA favors ground ballers which should cause serious concern before you go all in on Nova). Others you might be tempted to roster, though their ABA was worse than league average last season, follow:

Carlos Rodon 2.01
Adam Wainwright 2.02
Robbie Ray 2.12
Francisco Liriano 2.15

100-159 INNINGS PITCHED

PLAYER

TEAM

IP

TB

BB

ERA

WHIP

ABA

Clayton Kershaw

LAD

149

141

11

1.69

0.72

1.02

Rich Hill

OAK/LAD

110.33

103

33

2.12

1.00

1.23

Chris Devenski

HOU

108.33

115

20

2.16

0.91

1.25

Michael Fulmer

DET

159

213

42

3.06

1.12

1.60

Junior Guerra

MIL

121.67

153

43

2.81

1.13

1.61

Mike Montgomery

SEA/CHC

100

124

38

2.52

1.17

1.62

Stephen Strasburg

WSH

147.67

196

44

3.60

1.10

1.63

Steven Wright

BOS

156.67

201

57

3.33

1.24

1.65

Yu Darvish

TEX

100.33

136

31

3.41

1.12

1.66

Jacob deGrom

NYM

148

213

36

3.04

1.20

1.68

Steven Matz

NYM

132.33

192

31

3.40

1.21

1.69

Miguel Gonzalez

CHW

135

197

35

3.73

1.24

1.72

Jameson Taillon

PIT

104

163

17

3.38

1.12

1.73

Joe Ross

WSH

105

156

29

3.43

1.30

1.76

Colby Lewis

TEX

116.33

180

28

3.71

1.13

1.79

Anthony DeSclafani

CIN

123.33

192

30

3.28

1.22

1.80

James Paxton

SEA

121

195

24

3.79

1.31

1.81

Sean Manaea

OAK

144.67

226

37

3.86

1.19

1.82

Matt Andriese

TB

127.67

208

25

4.37

1.22

1.83

Aaron Nola

PHI

111

174

29

4.78

1.31

1.83

Ross Stripling

LAD

100

155

30

3.96

1.26

1.85

Carlos Carrasco

CLE

146.33

237

34

3.32

1.15

1.85

Tyler Anderson

COL

114.33

185

28

3.54

1.29

1.86

Danny Salazar

CLE

137.33

195

63

3.87

1.34

1.88

Felix Hernandez

SEA

153.33

226

65

3.82

1.32

1.90

Tyler Chatwood

COL

158

230

70

3.87

1.37

1.90

Gerrit Cole

PIT

116

186

36

3.88

1.44

1.91

Adam Conley

MIA

133.33

197

62

3.85

1.40

1.94

Clay Buchholz

BOS

139.33

217

55

4.78

1.33

1.95

Jhoulys Chacin

LAA/ATL

144

228

55

4.81

1.44

1.97

Eduardo Rodriguez

BOS

107

171

40

4.71

1.30

1.97

Zack Greinke

ARI

158.67

273

41

4.37

1.27

1.98

Christian Friedrich

SD

129.33

204

52

4.80

1.41

1.98

Michael Foltynewicz

ATL

123.33

210

35

4.31

1.30

1.99

Kershaw was the best pitcher in baseball last season even though he didn’t throw 150-innings. The guy walked 11 batters all season long, eleven, and he nearly had an ABA under 1.00, something we don’t even see with relievers.

Hill was great when on the hill, but come on.

Devenski pitched remarkably well last season and even with a starting spot, or a closing role, he was still a solid value play in mixed leagues.

Guerra/Montgomery are surprising names near the top of the list. Guerra though, totally out of nowhere. So hard to trust him. We say it all the time in fantasy football, don’t chase points. Kinda feel the same way with Guerra in 2017.

A bit further down, 12th, was Miguel Gonzalez. That mark of 1.72 was better than guys like Carrasco (1.85), Salazar (1.88), King Felix (1.90) and Cole (1.91). That’s truly amazing.

Conley, everyone wanted last season, but there were as many downs as ups last season. His ABA was a direct match for the league average.

Zack Greinke was below the league average, this a year after he led the league in ABA (1.16). Injuries played a part, though his performance was still wanting when he was on the field. Gotta expect a rebound, even though not all the way back to greatness.

Dylan Bundy will likely have a lot of heat behind him this spring, but note that ABA isn’t a fan of what happened last season (2.06).

Jordan Zimmermann (2.14) and Michael Wacha (2.16) failed miserably last season and enter 2017 with huge question marks. Only for those with a high risk tolerance are these two righties in 2017.

Sonny Gray? I’m still a fan, will be writing about it, but I will just leave you with his ABA of 2.25. Wow was he atrocious.

50-99 INNINGS PITCHED

PLAYER

TEAM

IP

TB

BB

WHIP

ERA

WHIP

ABA

Zach Britton

BAL

67

49

18

0.84

0.54

0.84

1.00

Kenley Jansen

LAD

68.67

59

11

0.67

1.83

0.67

1.02

Aroldis Chapman

NYY/CHC

58

46

18

0.86

1.55

0.86

1.10

Mark Melancon

WSH/PIT

71.33

69

12

0.9

1.64

0.90

1.14

Andrew Miller

CLE/NYY

74.33

77

9

0.69

1.45

0.69

1.16

Dan Otero

CLE

70.67

73

10

0.91

1.53

0.91

1.17

Seung Hwan Oh

STL

79.67

78

18

0.92

1.92

0.92

1.20

Matt Bush

TEX

61.67

63

14

0.94

2.48

0.94

1.25

Addison Reed

NYM

77.67

84

13

0.94

1.97

0.94

1.25

Will Harris

HOU

64

69

15

1.05

2.25

1.05

1.31

Nate Jones

CHW

70.67

78

15

0.89

2.29

0.89

1.32

Derek Law

SF

55

66

9

0.96

2.13

0.96

1.36

Alex Colome

TB

56.67

64

15

1.02

1.91

1.02

1.39

Kelvin Herrera

KC

72

89

12

0.96

2.75

0.96

1.40

Tyler Thornburg

MIL

67

69

25

0.94

2.15

0.94

1.40

Jeurys Familia

NYM

77.67

79

31

1.21

2.55

1.21

1.42

A.J. Schugel

PIT

52

61

13

1.04

3.63

1.04

1.42

Joe Blanton

LAD

80

88

26

1.01

2.48

1.01

1.43

Hunter Strickland

SF

61

69

19

1.13

3.10

1.13

1.44

Brad Brach

BAL

79

89

25

1.04

2.05

1.04

1.44

Kyle Barraclough

MIA

72.67

61

44

1.22

2.85

1.22

1.44

Craig Kimbrel

BOS

53

47

30

1.09

3.40

1.09

1.45

Roberto Osuna

TOR

74

94

14

0.93

2.68

0.93

1.46

Ryan Buchter

SD

63

61

31

1.03

2.86

1.03

1.46

Ryan Dull

OAK

74.33

94

15

0.87

2.42

0.87

1.47

Dellin Betances

NYY

73

80

28

1.12

3.08

1.12

1.48

Michael Lorenzen

CIN

50

61

13

1.08

2.88

1.08

1.48

George Kontos

SF

53.33

59

20

1.16

2.53

1.16

1.48

David Phelps

MIA

86.67

91

38

1.14

2.28

1.14

1.49

Cody Allen

CLE

68

75

27

1.00

2.51

1.00

1.50

Brian Flynn

KC

55.33

60

23

1.10

2.60

1.10

1.50

Robbie Ross Jr.

BOS

55.33

60

23

1.25

3.25

1.25

1.50

The top-4 closers in baseball were the top-4 in ABA.

Miller in the 5th spot was expected.

What wasn’t is Otero. Just 10 free passes all season long, and he barely gave up a base per inning with the bat.

Bush finally found himself after years of struggle.

Reed will see saves early on with the whole Jeruys Familia situation. Reed pitched extremely well last season in case you missed it.

Law won’t close after the Giants added Melancon, but if called upon he likely could have success.

Kimbrel ain’t what he once was, but he’s still effective. His mark still blew doors on A.J. Ramos who was up at 1.53.

Raisel Iglesias and Edwin Diaz both had marks of 1.59.

Hector Neris walked 30 batters in 80.1 innings, but he dominated when not walking batters leading to a 1.61 mark, four hundredths better than Francisco Rodriguez.

Ryan Madson had a 1.76 ABA. If he pitches like that again he will have a tough time reaching  30 saves again.

David Robertson really struggled with walks last season – 32 in 62.1 innings – leading to a 1.83 ABA.

Ken Giles dominated last in the year, but his early season struggles led to a mark that was one hundredth worse than the league average at 1.95.

Speaking of walk issues... Blake Snell walked 51 in 89 innings leading to a poor 2.00 mark. It’s imperative that he throws more strikes, an absolute must.

Pretty surprised that Lance McCullers had a 2.00 mark. Great talent, but health and consistency are concerns (what was up with those 45 walks in 81 innings?).

Zach Elfin had a 2.29 mark. So much for having interest in him this year.

Jose Berrios was at 2.74. I don’t even know how that is possible. So much talent, yet absolutely no production. #ImpossibleToHavePredictedOrBeBelieved

FEWER THAN 50 INNINGS PITCHED

PLAYER

TEAM

IP

TB

BB

ERA

WHIP

ABA

Carl Edwards

CHC

36

30

14

3.75

0.81

1.22

Alec Asher

PHI

27.67

30

4

2.28

0.94

1.23

Cam Bedrosian

LAA

40.33

36

14

1.12

1.09

1.24

Wade Davis

KC

43.33

38

16

1.87

1.13

1.25

Grant Dayton

LAD

26.33

27

6

2.05

0.76

1.25

Adam Ottavino

COL

27

27

7

2.67

0.93

1.26

Pedro Strop

CHC

47.33

45

15

2.85

0.89

1.27

Jharel Cotton

OAK

29.33

35

4

2.15

0.82

1.33

Jacob Barnes

MIL

26.67

32

6

2.70

1.13

1.42

Bruce Rondon

DET

36.33

40

12

2.97

0.96

1.43

Matt Belisle

WSH

46

59

7

1.76

1.09

1.43

Mauricio Cabrera

ATL

38.33

37

19

2.82

1.30

1.46

Robert Gsellman

NYM

44.67

52

15

2.42

1.28

1.50

Alex Reyes

STL

46

46

23

1.57

1.22

1.50

Michael Ynoa

CHW

30

28

17

3.00

1.23

1.50

Xavier Cedeno

TB

41.33

49

13

3.70

1.19

1.50

Ryan O'Rourke

MIN

25

28

10

3.96

1.12

1.52

Boone Logan

COL

46.33

51

20

3.69

1.01

1.53

Pat Neshek

HOU

47

62

11

3.06

0.94

1.55

Tommy Hunter

BAL/CLE

34

45

8

3.18

1.26

1.56

Sammy Solis

WSH

41

43

21

2.41

1.27

1.56

Fernando Rodriguez

OAK

40.67

47

17

4.20

1.16

1.57

Gavin Floyd

TOR

31

41

8

4.06

1.00

1.58

Rob Scahill

MIL/PIT

34.67

46

9

3.38

1.24

1.59

Adam Liberatore

LAD

42.67

51

17

3.38

1.20

1.59

Jerry Blevins

NYM

42

52

15

2.79

1.21

1.60

Bedrosian could see plenty of time in the Angels 9th inning this season, and he has the arm to succeed.

Davis wasn’t at his normal great level, but he was still a tremendous performer.

Ottavino looks primed for late inning success with the Rockies this season.

Cotton had a nice run in September and is an intriguing prospect in 2017. Just four walks as he threw darts with that special changeup.

Reyes is primed for a big 2017, provided that the Cardinals allow him to start since they have like 73 starting pitching options.

Joaquin Benoit (1.67) and Koji Uehara (1.68) are old, but they can still get men out.

Corey Knebel has a huge arm, but if he wants to rack up saves this season he simply must improve on the 1.93 mark he posted last year.