On a daily basis, I receive a question from someone asking me – how many homers do you think Jim will hit this season? Can Harry hit .300 this season? Will Steve strike out 200 batters? Every day the questions come, and I get it. Growing up, one of my most favorite things every January was to get my grubby hands on that first fantasy baseball magazine, whip it open to the player capsule section, and start plowing through the projections for players. Alas, thirty years later, I now realize why this is a complete waste of time. Don’t agree? Let me prove it to you.


Most legitimate sources will tell you projections are, at best, about 70-75 percent accurate.

There are many reasons for this fact; the most logical being playing time. Will a guy get hurt thereby throwing off the projections accuracy? If Player A is hurt, who is Player B who gains playing time? Will a player be traded and either lose or gain playing time? What team will call up some hot-shot...

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