2016 MLB Draft Guide: Pitching Targets To Know

How do you construct the ideal pitching staff in fantasy baseball? You should take into account a player’s health or lack thereof. You should consider how old the hurler is and how much mileage he has on his arm. You should consider the mechanics he possesses when he takes the bump. You have to consider role as well – is there a role of prominence ahead or are we simply hoping the skills will force his manager to use him in high leverage situations? Those are all valid starting points when breaking down the men who throw the ball for a living.

However, what do you do for the next step? Of course, we have to talk about the performance of pitchers if we’re trying to build a unit of skilled performers to help us win in the coming season to that end, I’ve put together a series of numbers to use as the baseline for our review of the 2015 pitching season. Which pitchers had success last season? What numbers should you be targeting when you’re putting that staff together? Explore shall we.

THE STRIKEOUT

Starters: At least a K/9 of 6.75
Relievers: At least a K/9 of 7.75

2015 Starters Average: 7.4 per nine
2015 Relievers Average: 8.4 per nine
2015 Major League average: 7.76 per nine

The strikeout is a sign of a pitcher’s ability to dominate hitters. It's also one of the five main categories in 5x5 fantasy leagues. The fewer balls that are put in play, the less likely a batter is to get on base, I’m a genius. Hence the power of the strikeout. Note that in most instances I'm still rather unlikely to roster a starter with a K/9 mark under 7.00 or a reliever with a mark under 8.00.

THE WALK

Starters: A BB/9 mark below 3.00
Relievers: A BB/9 mark below 2.90

2015 Starters Average: 2.72 per nine
2015 Relievers Average: 3.29 per nine
2015 Major League average: 2.92 per nine

I have no time for hurlers who can't seem to locate their pitches and neither should you. Free passes lead to runs and you want no part of that. When a pitcher cannot locate his pitches all manner of problems result.

K/BB SUCCESS

Starters: A K/BB mark above 2.40
Relievers: A K/BB mark above 2.65

2015 Starters Average: 2.73
2015 Relievers Average: 2.56
2015 Major League average: 2.66

Some big power arms post huge strikeout marks but they just cannot throw strikes (I’m looking straight at you Trevor Bauer). You have to be very careful with power arms that cannot throw strikes which is why utilizing K/BB ratio is important.

GROUND BALL / FLY BALL RATIOS

Starters: A GB/FB mark better than 1.25
Relievers: A GB/FB mark better than 1.50
2015 Major League average: 1.35

If a reliever gives up two hits, a single up the middle and a chopper over the third baseman's head, you likely won't get too nervous. However, if he gives up two hits and they are a homer and a double off the wall, that's going to lead to a lot of runners crossing home plate. A starter can overcome a run here and there with scoreless innings before and after the runs scoring, whereas relievers obviously don't have that luxury, so the more ground balls they can generate the better.

PITCHERS TO TARGET

Remember, the numbers listed above are baseline numbers. You should be aiming higher, at least at the top of your pitching staff, then the numbers we’ve been noting, but it’s not always feasible to roster a staff with three 200-inning arms that strike out eight batters per nine while walking 2.25 per nine is it? Given that obvious fact, I’ve devised a simple list of numbers that you can use to filter out the riff-raff on the bump.

Starters: 7.00 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower, 2.65 K/BB or better (minimum 162 IP)

There were 37 men who hit the above baseline marks in 2015 (listed by innings pitched).

INNINGS PITCHED                     IP       SO/9       BB/9       SO/9

1    Clayton Kershaw              232.2      11.64       1.62      11.64 

2    Dallas Keuchel                  232         8.38       1.98       8.38    

3    Jake Arrieta                       229         9.28       1.89       9.28    

4    Max Scherzer                   228.2      10.86       1.34      10.86    

5    Zack Greinke                    222.2       8.08       1.62       8.08    

6    Corey Kluber                     222         9.93       1.82       9.93    

7    David Price                       220.1       9.19       1.92       9.19    

8    Madison Bumgarner       218.1       9.65       1.61       9.65    

9    John Lackey                      218         7.22       2.19       7.22    

10   Cole Hamels                     212.1       9.11       2.63       9.11     

T-11  Chris Archer                   212        10.70       2.80      10.70    

T-11  Johnny Cueto                212         7.47       1.95       7.47    

13   Chris Sale                        208.2      11.82       1.81      11.82    

T-14  Gerrit Cole                     208         8.74       1.90       8.74    

T-14  Sonny Gray                   208         7.31       2.55       7.31    

16   Jose Quintana                206.1       7.72       1.92       7.72    

17   Jon Lester                       205         9.09       2.06       9.09    

18   Collin McHugh               203.2       7.56       2.34       7.56    

T-19  Felix Hernandez          201.2       8.52       2.59       8.52    

T-19  Jordan Zimmermann  201.2       7.32       1.74       7.32    

21   Wei-Yin Chen                  191.1       7.20       1.93       7.20    

22   Jacob deGrom                 191         9.66       1.79       9.66    

23   Matt Harvey                     189.1       8.94       1.76       8.94    

24   Danny Salazar                  185         9.49       2.58       9.49    

25   Anthony DeSclafani       184.2       7.36       2.68       7.36    

26   Carlos Carrasco             183.2      10.58       2.11      10.58      

27   Scott Kazmir                    183        7.62       2.90       7.62     

28   Michael Wacha               181.1     7.59       2.88       7.59    

29   Kyle Hendricks               180         8.35       2.15       8.35    

30  J.A. Happ                          172         7.90       2.35       7.90     

31  Rick Porcello                   172         7.80       1.99       7.80    

32   Jason Hammel              170.2       9.07       2.11       9.07    

33   Taijuan Walker             169.2       8.33       2.12       8.33    

34   Jake Odorizzi                169.1       7.97       2.44       7.97    

35   Ian Kennedy                  168.1       9.30       2.78       9.30    

36   CC Sabathia                167.1       7.37       2.69       7.37      

37   A.J. Burnett                    164         7.85       2.69       7.85    

Next level with a little more depth, cause who wants just an average arm, right?

Starters: 7.00 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower, 2.65 K/BB or better (minimum 162 IP) plus 1.25 or better GB/FB. The list ends up shrinking considerably when we add in the batted ball rate. Only 22 men qualify for this exclusive list.

Remember – strikeouts, no walks, ground balls. Repeat. Strikeouts, no walks, ground balls. Repeat…

Let's move on to bullpen arms.

Relievers: 8.00 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower, 2.75 K/BB or better (minimum 40 innings pitched)

There were 51 qualifiers (listed by innings pitched).

Relievers: 8.00 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower, 2.50 K/BB or better (minimum 40 games pitched) plus 1.50 or better GB/FB (in some cases, these are the cheap late-round adds that can make a huge difference for you in league specific setups).

Add in some grounders, and let's see what we are left with 18 men.

PITCHER STRAND RATES

The big league average for strand rates, more commonly called Left On Base Percentage, is roughly 70 percent. When a pitcher is substantially below that number in one year there is a reasonable expectation the number, and the pitcher’s performance, will rebound in the following year. Conversely, when a pitcher greatly exceeds that level, he's more apt to see his production decrease in the following campaign. Note that certain pitchers, because of their tremendous skills or lack thereof, may repeat their 2015 efforts even if the number is high (this measure is kind of like BABIP in that certain players can establish a higher than average rate and stay at that level).

Four men were over 80 percent, a number that is virtually impossible to repeat (minimum 162 innings pitched).

86.5 – Clayton Kershaw

82.6 – John Lackey

80.5 – Wei-Yin Chen

80.0 – Jake Arrieta

In 2014 there were seven men who posted a mark of 80 percent. How many repeated in 2015? One – Kershaw. Five of the other six saw major pullbacks.
 

Don’t even try to figure out Chris Young. No one has figured him out.

As for Lackey, Chen and Arrieta, let’s just say that a repeat of their ERA marks from 2015 is highly unlikely.

Here are the 11 men who threw at least 162 innings and failed to record a mark of 70 percent in 2015.

69.3 – Hiroki Kuroda

69.2 – Jose Quintana

69.0 – Colby Lewis

67.5 – A.J. Burnett

66.8 – Justin Verlander

66.6 – Matt Garza

66.5 – Travis Wood

66.3 – Kyle Gibson

65.7 – Dan Haren

65.5 – Nathan Eovaldi

62.1 – Clay Buchholz

All things being equal, all the men listed above, minus the retired Haren, has a solid chance to see their ERA improve in 2016.

When in doubt on draft day just remind yourself… strikeouts, no walks and ground balls.