2016 MLB Draft Guide: Ray's Ramblings

What better way to kick off the 2016 Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide than reading the ramblings of a lunatic nicknamed the Oracle…

WHAT WENT RIGHT IN 2015

Here are some of the things written in the 2015 MLB Draft Guide that turned out to be dead on.

“Jose Abreu won’t sustain the level of success he had [in 2014]… another run at a .300 season seems a stretch at this point, given his overall game… his ground ball rate was massive and that should be a yellow flag waving to alert you to the perils of counting on a homer repeat in 2015.”

Abreu saw his average drop .027 points to .290, his OBP went to down .036 points, his SLG went down .079 points, he lost six homers (down to 30), he lost six RBIs and his OPS went from .964 to .850 even though he had 46 more plate appearances. There wasn’t a single other source I’m aware of who got this one right. I said he wasn’t a top-five first baseman (he finished sixth). Everyone else had him as a top-10 player overall.

“It’s rather unlikely that Jose Altuve will get a hit every three at-bats in 2015 or steal 50-plus bases again… there really wasn’t any appreciable growth with Altuve last year to support the significant batting average increase… Is it fair to think his stolen base success rate will remain as high as it was in 2014?”

Altuve lost .028 points in batting average (.313) and 19 steals (38).

“Billy Hamilton cannot hit. Not a lick… it’s not just the average that’s an issue, it’s his total inability to get on base… Billy Hamilton cannot hit, at all.”

Hamilton hit .226 with a .274 OBP and .289 SLG leading to a .563 OPS. He scored all of 56 runs. Who cares if he stole 57 bases?

There are 10,000 different species of ants in the world. Meanwhile the desert locust could cover 1/5^th of the world’s land mass surface.

“Brian Dozier certainly can be looked at as a player with a fair shot at hitting 15 homers and stealing 15 bases in 2015… Dozier will produce, little doubt about that. He will also struggle for long periods, be death to your batting average, and likely fail to live up to your expectations.”

Dozier hit five more homers than he did in 2015 (28) and he drove in six more runs (77). However, he also scored 11 fewer (101), saw his average fall .006 points down to .236 and his OBP dropped to a sickly .307, .038 points down from ’14. He also stole 12 bags, nine down from 2015.

Zack the Macaw, yes he’s an actual bird, opened up 35 cans in one minute on January 12, 2012, at San Jose, California.

“Raw talent but somewhat unrefined, I can't help but get the feeling that George Springer isn't quite going to live up to some folks wild expectations this season.”

He had a solid .276/.367/.459 slash line last season, and he stole 16 bases, but he also lost 10 RBIs and four homers despite picking up an additional 93 at-bats. Solid, 16/16 in just 102 games, but injuries certainly precluded the blow up effort people expected. Is that fair to call it a “hit” then? Probably not, but I’m doing it anyway.

“Though I know the pull is strong, don't be seduced by the power of the darkside with Michael Pineda… (1) Pineda will see a significant uptick in his ERA this season. (2) Pineda will see a significant uptick in his WHIP this season. (3) Pineda will likely see his homer rate increase. (4) Pineda will see his walk rate increase. (5) Pineda has thrown one season of 140 innings in nine years, and in the eight season in which he's actually thrown a pitch his average innings pitched total has been 87.”

His ERA went from 1.89 to 4.37. His WHIP went from 0.83 to 1.23. His HR/9 rate went from 0.59 to 1.18. His walk rate didn’t explode but did go from 0.83 to 1.18 per nine. He threw 160.2 innings. Pretty much a home run with this call.

There was a piece of Spam musubi that weighed 628 pounds made by Edward Suigmoto and his steam at the Hawaii Rice Fest in Honolulu, Hawaii, the September 29, 2012.

“The Mets have moved their fences in a bit. If the new measurements were in place last season, Curtis Granderson would have hit nine more homers. Here they are: July 11 off Henderson Alvarez, May 22: Zack Greinke, August 16: Dan Straily, April 4: Mike Leake, July 4: Yu Darvish, August 8: Jake Peavy, May 22: Chris Perez, September 9: Christian Bergman, September 14: Tyler Clippard. Granderson hit 20 homers last season.”

Granderson went from hitting 20 homers in ‘14 to 26 in 2015, his highest total in three years.

And what did we get wrong last year… and by “we” I mean me…

WHAT WENT WRONG IN 2015

“Is it reasonable to expect Carlos Carrasco to be the guy we saw for four months last season or should we be looking at the pitcher we literally saw for an entire decade before that? Someone might make him their SP2 in this format [12-team league]. Don't be that guy (or gal). Even as your SP3 there is plenty of risk of risk with Carrasco in a league this size. If he slides to the level of costing you a pick commiserate with SP4 value, pounce.”

Carrasco’s ERA went up more than a run to 3.63, and his WHIP went up a 10^th to 1.07. Those are still strong numbers. He also jacked up his K/9 rate by a full batter to 10.58 per nine. Overall I was wrong. However, I also wrote the following: “He's only thrown 180 innings in a season one time in more than a decade of professional work, and over the last two years he's averaged 126 innings pitched. Will he have enough bullets in his arm, no matter how he performs, to make 30-plus starts in 2015?” He managed to thrown just 183.2 innings so I was pretty on with that part of the prediction.

Ten percent of the people in the world could never take in the wonder of this Draft Guide because they cannot read.

“Starling Marte is a great talent who is 26-years-old with two full seasons under his belt. He also doesn't walk, has moderate power, depends on an astronomical BABIP and is a poor percentage base stealer. Don't mistake that for me saying Marte will bust in 2014. That certainly will not happen. However, the season of growth that many are predicting may not be quite as grand as that throng of supporters would lead you to believe unless he addresses some obvious weaknesses in his game.”

His average dropped .004 points, his OBP went down .019 points and his SLG dropped .009 points from 2014. He also stole the same amount of bases. However, he did hit six more homers and drove in 25 more runs while scoring 11 more times. I’ll call that wrong for the sake of this discussion, but it really wasn’t off by much at all.

The 2015 Rankings had Robinson Cano as the No. 1 second baseman. Oops. We had Anthony Rendon ranked No. 4 at 3B. Everyone missed that one though. Troy Tulowitzki was our No. 1 shortstop. We won’t make that mistake again. What happened to Mr. 20/20 at shortstop, Ian Desmond? He was a massive disappointment despite being our No. 2 shortstop. Jordan Zimmerman was our No. 10 starting pitcher, James Shields No. 13. Julio Teheran came in at No. 18, Alex Wood at No. 21. Hey, not even the Oracle’s crystal ball is always clear.

Bruce Masters of the United Kingdom has visited 46,495 drinking establishments as of this writing. If you visited one spot each day that would equate to 127 years of life. Even I can’t drink that much. I think. I should try.

DID YOU MISS…?

I just mentioned Robinson Cano. Did you realize he was as good as ever, yeah I said it, in the second half last season? Over his final 70 games he hit .331 with 15 homers, 49 RBIs and a .926 OPS. He was hurt most of the second half by the way.

Chickens see more colors than humans.

I WISH HE HADN’T RETIRED

Dan Haren was riding his exercise bike one day and took to Twitter. Here’s what he wrote. “I had to take Imodium most days I pitched to plug myself up. ” Yes, that is a poo emoji. He put it on there. I didn’t.

ROOKIES

Only 53 percent of players taken in the first round of the MLB Entry Draft from 2008-12 have reached the majors. That seem like a big number to you? Players are never a lock to star, even when it seems like they are.

I HAVE TO HAVE

Ryan Braun is only 32-years-old but he has failed to appear in 141 games each of the last three seasons. I get the concern. I also see a guy who was one steal from a .285-25-80-80-25 season.

More on Robinson Cano. He hit .006 points better than Daniel Murphy (.287 to .281), he hit one fewer homer (21) than Ian Kinsler (11) and Kolten Wong (11), drove in 79 runs, which was the most at the position, and scored 82 times – six more than Ben Zobrist.

The price has never been lower than it will be this season for Evan Longoria. That’s why I’m buying. He only hit 21 homers with 73 RBIs last season but he has played 160 games in three straight seasons while averaging 25 homers, 84 RBIs and 83 runs scored.

Manny Machado played 162 games and, to put it mildly, crushed it. He hit .286, just above his .281 career mark, but the 35 homers and 20 steals made him a superstar. Honestly, I don’t know if there is any room for growth in the HR/SB categories, but he could certainly get awfully close while likely driving in more runs (86).

Dustin Pedroia believes in Bigfoot. That’s enough for me.

Kyle Seager has hit 20 homers in four straight seasons while playing at least 155 games. Those numbers alone should interest everyone. In each of those seasons he hit 20 homers with 69 RBIs and 62 runs scored. Those aren’t great numbers. I get it. However, he is also one of seven men to reach all of those numbers the last four years, and he’s not expensive.

Marcus Stroman had ACL surgery on March 19. A mere six months later, nearly to the day, he was appearing in a major league game (September 12). That’s remarkable to the extreme. Is he human? He’s also like 5-foot-9, throws easy gas, and has a cool tattoo. What’s not to like? Other than the miniature stature of course.

Oh yeah, something more on Pedroia in addition to his cryptozoological interests. He can still hit – .291 last season with 12 homers in just 93 games. He can still produce offensively, even at 32 years of age and the cost will be negligible.

Justin Upton is 28-years-old. He’s already been in the bigs nine years. Since 2011 his average effort follows: .271-26-82-94-15. He’s not a superstar, but why folks are turned off by him has everything to do with expectations and little to do with reality.

Christian Yelich can’t lift the ball. He does most other things well. A .290 average and .365 OBP, those are his career numbers. Michael Brantley (.292/.349) and Carlos Gonzalez (.290/.347) and are basically the same in their careers. I know it’s not the same thing, but I just found the numbers interesting.

I WILL NOT BE DRAFTING

Nolan Arenado – you can read why in his Player Profile. Someone will simply draft him before I’m comfortable rostering him.

Xander Bogaerts hit .320, posted 196 hits and is just 23-years-old. He also plays for the Red Sox. Get in line early if you want to buy a ticket to this show. He’s not going to post a .372 BABIP again. He hit 53 percent of his batted balls into the ground, meaning the 12 homers he hit two seasons ago might be the apex of his possible production in ‘16. If he doesn’t go 10/10, and is hitting let’s say .290, he just won’t stand out. Don’t pay for growth. Might even be smart to worry a bit about a full repeat.

Brandon Crawford hit 21 homers last season. He had 19 the previous two years. He’s never scored 70 runs, never stolen seven bases and has never hit .260 in a season. Be very cautious and don’t give too much credit to the 21 homers and 84 RBIs.

Nelson Cruz will be 36, doesn’t run anymore and is not a .300 hitter. No way. Regression in all five fantasy categories is likely to occur in 2016. Nope, not buying even after two straight impressive seasons.

Yu Darvish didn’t throw a pitch that counted in 2015. He had Tommy John surgery in mid-March 2015. In three big league seasons he’s averaged 181.2 innings a season. Can he get to that many frames in 2016 as he will be less than 13 months removed from surgery when the season begins? Even if he does toss that many frames there’s always the performance concerns that so many seem to turn away from when it comes to surgically repaired arms.

All the Sean Doolittle love last year confused me (from the release of the Draft Guide a year ago we had Tyler Clippard ranked highest). Doolittle wasn’t right physically and in the end threw just 13.2 innings that counted with a fastball velocity that was down two mph. It’s not at all certain that he will lead the A’s relievers in saves, let alone dominate batters when on the bump.

Jose Fernandez had Tommy John surgery in mid-May 2014 which limited him to 51.2 innings in 2014 and 64.2 innings in 2015. Add in minor league innings last season and we’re at 89.1 innings. How many innings will the 23-year-old be allowed to throw in 2016? We already know that Scott Boras will be involved, according to Fernandez, and that should scuttle any idea of 200 innings, at least in my mind (he’s never thrown more than 172.2 innings in a season, the only time he’s thrown 140 innings in a season). Don’t compare Matt Harvey to Fernandez. Harvey is more than three years older and was pitching for a trip to the World Series.

Kendrys Morales has one season in his career with 24 homers. He has one season of more than 80 RBIs in five years. He’s a career .275 batter with a .331 OBP. Don’t overpay for the 106 RBIs especially since he’s only going to be utility eligible (nine games at first base).

Giancarlo Stanton won’t be on any of my clubs. Too many injuries. He’s missed time with hamstring, quadriceps, abdominal, knee, shoulder, face and hand issues. For a 26-year-old who looks like a Greek god that’s scary. Over his last four seasons he’s failed to appear in 125 games three times. He’s appeared in 458 games the last four seasons. One hundred fifty players have appeared in more games. 150.

Adam Wainwright will be 35 in August. From 2009-14 he threw at least 198.2 innings every season. Last year he was limited to just seven games and 28 frames. He came back strong from his Achilles issue, but he’s at an age where we can’t simply be trusted to be the same old Waino.

JUST CAUSE…

Back to Jose Abreu… he failed to live up to expectations, as I correctly predicted, but he did join Albert Pujols as the only two men to go 30-100 in their first two seasons. Of course, he played in Cuba before coming here, but still, was a solid season – even though it wasn’t quite what people expected.

Jake Arrieta had a 0.75 ERA in the second half last season. The second-best mark in the second half was the 1.31 mark of Clayton Kershaw. Zack Greinke was third at 1.99. Arrieta became the first pitcher since 1985 (Dwight Gooden), to win 22 games with an ERA under 2.00.

Four Astros hit at least 24 homers last season: Evan Gattis (27), Colby Rasmus (25), Luis Valbuena (25) and Chris Carter (24). None of them hit .250 which is embarrassing: Gattis .246, Rasmus .238, Valbuena .224 and Carter .199.

Carlos Correa debuted at 20 years of age last season. He became the first shortstop to hit 20 homers at that age… ever.

The Cubs posted a 1.15 WHIP in 2015. The team had a better WHIP than all but 21 pitchers. Think about that for a moment. The last time the Cubs had a mark that low was 1919 (1.125).

Is Wade Davis the best pitcher in baseball? Since the start of the 2014 season he’s gone 17-3 with 20 saves. He’s also posted 187 strikeouts, a 12.08 per nine rate, leading to a 4.35 K/BB ratio. He’s also posted a 0.97 ERA and 0.82 WHIP while allowing three homers in 139.1 innings.

Dee Gordon became the first player since the immortal Jackie Robinson in 1949 to lead the NL in batting average (.333) and stolen bases (58) in the same season.

Zack Greinke had a 1.66 ERA in 2015. That’s the best mark since Greg Maddux in 1995 (1.63). He had a 0.84 WHIP, the fourth-best mark for a starter since 1961.

Did you realize that Clayton Kershaw had 301 strikeouts in 232.2 innings last season to become the first arm to reach that mark since 2002 (Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling)? He faced 890 batters meaning that he struck out 33.8 percent of all the batters he faced last season. One out of three. #Wow

Dallas Keuchel was 15-0 with a 2.48 ERA at home. Shelby Miller was 3-9 at home. He had a 2.43 ERA.

Antanas Kontrimas of Lithuania holds the world record of lifting 141 lbs… with his beard.

Shelby Miller went 24 straight games last season without a win. During that time he went 0-16 with a 3.83 ERA. All told he went 6-17 with a 3.02 ERA. He became the 10^th pitcher in league history to record six or fewer victories with a sub 3.05 ERA (minimum 25 starts).

Anthony Rizzo hit .278 with 31 home runs. He posted a .387 OBP thanks to being hit by a pitch 30 times. He and Don Baylor (1986) are the only two men to have ever pulled off this 30/30 trick.

David Weichenberger of Austria jumped a unicycle, yeah people still ride those, nine feet eight inches to set a world record.

THE NUMBERS 2013-15

HITTERS

*Minimum 1,500 plate appearances

PITCHERS

*Minimum 450 innings