Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in's an out's of ABA in the above link). Today, I'll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.
ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP
The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.
Second, here is a “key†you can employ to understand the ABA totals.
Below 1.50: elite level performance 1.50-1.70: All-Star level 1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles 1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter. 2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine
With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.
2011 ABA LEADERS - Minimum 160 IP
1.31 – Clayton Kershaw 1.32 – Roy Halladay 1.35 – Justin VerlanderWhat a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.
1.43 – Cliff Lee 1.44 Cole HamelsThe Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.
1.45 – Doug FisterHe didn't beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.
1.59 – Brandon McCarthyOnly issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.
1.61 – Phil HumberHe finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.
1.69 – Gavin FloydOften overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).
1.84 – Zack GreinkeJust slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn't score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.
1.87 – Brandon MorrowYou know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.
1.97 – Bartolo ColonDon't be seduced by his strong first half last year.
2.04 – Ubaldo JimenezSeventy-eight walks will kill ya.
2.33 – Bronson ArroyoThe worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?
90-160 INNING HURLERS
1.39 – Johnny CuetoHe led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.
1.49 – Jim JohnsonHe doesn't strike many out, an I'm not sure he's a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn't beat himself with the free passes.
1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance WorleyBaker's arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.
1.87 – Homer BaileyThough he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.
2.37 – Edinson VolquezHe has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.
2.42 – Danny DuffyHe might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.
LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS
1.02 – Sergio RomoJust like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.
1.16 – Mariano RiveraThe AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.
1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny VentersHow apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.
1.28 – Greg HollandThe Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.
1.40 – John Axford, Brandon LeagueThey both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.
1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy GuerraThese two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.†Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.
1.63 – Henry RodriguezThough he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.
1.90 – Joe NathanNathan didn't get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn't going to help anyone out.
1.99 – Huston StreetTen homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).
2.16 – Phil HughesI keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.
For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.
Also... there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.
By Ray Flowers