Fantasy Baseball Week 24 Preview

Welcome to the newest edition of the Weekly MLB Preview!

GAME BREAKDOWN GRID FOR WEEK 24 (9/12 to 9/18)

Analysis: Looking for statistics which will influence your upcoming lineup? Check out these tidbits:

• Fantasy Baseball owners have been fortunate for the small number of postponements and rainouts this season. As a whole, most teams have been relatively unaffected by weather concerns, but the Pittsburgh Pirates do have an additional game on their Week 24 slate in the form of a makeup game. Ordinarily I wouldn’t make it a point to lead off my articles with such a minor piece of news, but Fantasy owners who are looking for a few additional at bats in rotisserie leagues to help them in counting categories should be made aware. Additionally, the makeup games will come against the Cincinnati Reds, who aren’t exactly a pitching powerhouse.
• There are four teams in Week 24 which have four or more starts against left handed pitching (New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics and the Houston Astros). All four teams rank in the bottom half of baseball in terms of average against southpaws, with the Astros currently dead last.
• Which two teams are currently the hottest hitting ones in baseball? The Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners. Both clubs are dead-tied with a .306 AVG and .387 OBP since the beginning of September, and are neck-and-neck in runs scored. The Rangers lineup heating up was to be expected with the warm summer months here, but the Mariners have quietly put up really impressive numbers. Guillermo Heredia and Franklin Gutierrez are two names who are widely available in most formats – Heredia is hitting .313 and Gutierrez .462 over limited time this month.

INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

Analysis: Similar to the previous two weeks, Week 24 is incredibly light from the Interleague perspective. Featuring only two matchups, the Los Angeles Dodgers will gain a DH (and likely use it to insert the suddenly-hot Yasiel Puig), while the Minnesota Twins lose one, putting Miguel Sano’s at-bats at risk. The Twinkies still have the option to use Sano at third base instead, especially given his recent success.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Analysis: A Chicago Cubs pitcher NOT named Jake Arrieta leads our two-start options this week, in the form of Kyle Hendricks. Even though Hendricks hasn’t averaged over a strikeout per inning, his numbers have been utterly dominant elsewhere – a 2.07 ERA (best in all of baseball) and 0.99 WHIP (second best behind Max Scherzer) speak loudly enough. Few expected this level of success to continue into the second half of the season, but Hendricks has proven that he isn’t a flash in the pan. He takes on the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers in Week 24, and I fully expect fantastic numbers in each contest.

Another pitcher who takes on the Brewers in Week 24 is Anthony DeSclafani, who I’ve featured in several articles this season. I don’t want to necessarily pound my chest and scream “I told you so” from the rooftops, but I’ve long backed this right-hander out of Florida. DeSclafani has surrendered two earned runs or less in four of his past five outs, while lasting into the sixth inning in each contest. Perhaps the most obvious point of progress has been his ability to eliminate free passes of late – he has allowed one walk or less in each of his past five starts. In addition to the Brewers, DeSclafani faces the suddenly struggling Pittsburgh Pirates. I’m buying.

Jeff Samardzija has long been recognized as one of the streakiest pitchers in baseball (which is one of the reasons that he never is on my teams that value consistency). For all of his shortcomings, Samardzija has been on a high since mid-July, and now his ERA sits at 4.00 with a 1.20 WHIP. He faces the San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals in Week 24 – he is a safe bet to have six strikeouts or more in each contest. In leagues where he has been dropped after the owner pulled his hair out, see if you can stream him.

Analysis: Due to the way that the schedule falls in Week 24, the vast majority of top-tier pitching talent has one start rather than two. To no one’s surprise, Max Scherzer tops the list as he takes on the Atlanta Braves, followed by Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw. The first eyebrow-raising option listed here is Rick Porcello, who goes for his 20^th victory of the season against the Baltimore Orioles. Few could have expected this level of success from the former mid-level prospect who never really put things together as a member of the Detroit Tigers. What has led to Porcello’s dominance? A decreased HR/FB rate to 10.1% certainly helped things, and he has the lowest line drive rate of his career since 2011. Even though he has allowed more fly balls than in years past, Porcello has managed to keep them in play. A decreased reliance upon his fastball while an uptick in his slider usage has also helped turn things around.

Zach Greinke faces his former team in the Los Angeles Dodgers in Week 24. A major disappointment for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Greinke’s 4.54 ERA and 1.27 WHIP are the worst in his career dating all the way back to 2005. A massive uptick in home runs allowed has been his Achilles heel, and pitching in the band-box which is Chase Field hasn’t helped. His xFIP suggests that his ERA should be closer to 3.80, which also hints that he has been at the short-end of the bad luck stick. I’ve ranked him just inside of the top 15 at the position this week, and feel that we might see a revenge type game here.