Welcome to the newest edition of the Weekly MLB Preview!
GAME BREAKDOWN GRID FOR WEEK 19 (8/8 - 8/14)
TEAM | # GAMES | HOME | AWAY | VS LEFT | VS RIGHT |
Orioles | 7 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 |
Yankees | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
Red Sox | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Blue Jays | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Rays | 6 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
Tigers | 6 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
Royals | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
White Sox | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
Indians | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Twins | 7 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
Angels | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
Mariners | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
Athletics | 7 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
Rangers | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Astros | 7 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 |
Nationals | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Marlins | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Mets | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Braves | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
Phillies | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Cardinals | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Pirates | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Brewers | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Reds | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
Cubs | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Dodgers | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Giants | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
Padres | 6 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
Rockies | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
Diamondbacks | 6 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
Analysis: Looking for statistics which will influence your upcoming lineup? Check out these tidbits:
- While slugger Trevor Story has stolen much of the rookie headlines in 2016, Travis Jankowski has flown under the radar and has received little to no press for the season which he’s put together. Sure, his .242 AVG isn’t the prettiest thing to look at, but consider what he has brought to the speed department – 23 steals in 28 attempts – all in just 165 at-bats. To put that into perspective, Jankowski has stolen more bases than the entire Baltimore Orioles team, and nearly as many as the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Speaking of stories which haven’t received enough press, few owners know that the Milwaukee Brewers are third in the MLB in walks drawn, and first in stolen bases (not only that, but they have 12 more steals than the Padres, who are in second place). The Brewers team OPS collectively is just .397, which suggests that this team is getting it done by purely playing small-ball.
- Since the All-Star break, the Tampa Bay Rays lead the majors with a 2.42 ERA, allowing just 46 earned runs over 171 IP. During that timeframe, they have also allowed the fewest free passes in baseball with just 39 walks, and are currently in fifth with 159 strikeouts. Drew Smyly, Blake Snell and Matt Andriese continue to provide a nice back-end for the team.
INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
AWAY TEAM | HOME TEAM | # GAMES | DH? | PLAYER(S) IMPACTED |
Rangers (2), Rockies (2) | Rockies (2), Rangers (2) | 4 | Yes (2), No (2) | Mitch Moreland, Ryan Raburn, Daniel Descalso |
Indians | Nationals | 2 | No (2) | Carlos Santana |
Angels | Cubs | 2 | No (2) | Albert Pujols |
Diamondbacks | Red Sox | 3 | Yes (3) | Brandon Drury, Michael Bourn |
White Sox | Marlins | 3 | No (3) | Justin Morneau |
Orioles | Giants | 3 | No (3) | Pedro Alvarez |
Analysis: The Interleague matchups are continuing to ramp up, and fantasy baseball owners are more effected than ever. The majority of matchups for Week 19 feature the AL team on the road, which means they will temporarily lose their DH. Several sluggers will be sidelined, including Carlos Santana, Albert Pujols and Pedro Alvarez.
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS
PITCHER | MATCHUP 1 | MATCHUP 2 | RATING 2 |
Max Scherzer | Indians (Bauer) | Braves (Jenkins) | 10 |
Chris Sale | @Royals (Volquez) | @Marlins (Fernandez) | 9 |
Cole Hamels | @Rockies (Anderson) | Tigers (Sanchez) | 8 |
Jose Fernandez | Giants (Cueto) | White Sox (Sale) | 7.75 |
Steven Matz | Diamondbacks (Greinke) | Padres (Perdomo) | 8 |
Junior Guerra | Braves (Jenkins) | Reds (Reed) | 7.25 |
Michael Fulmer | @Mariners (LeBlanc) | @Rangers (Griffin) | 7 |
Jason Hammel | Angels (Weaver) | Cardinals (Leake) | 6.5 |
Zack Greinke | @Mets (Matz) | @Red Sox (Porcello) | 6.5 |
Rick Porcello | Yankees (Severino) | Diamondbacks (Greinke) | 6.5 |
Hector Santiago | Astros (Fiers) | Royals (Volquez) | 7 |
Jake Odorizzi | @Blue Jays (Dickey) | @Yankees (Severino) | 7.25 |
Johnny Cueto | @Marlins (Fernandez) | Orioles (Miley) | 6.5 |
Luis Severino | @Red Sox (Porcello) | Rays (Odorizzi) | 7.25 |
Kevin Gausman | @Athletics (Graveman) | @Giants (Gausman) | 6 |
Michael Wacha | Reds (Reed) | @Cubs (Hendricks) | 6 |
Trevor Bauer | @Nationals (Scherzer) | Angels (Weaver) | 6.25 |
Mike Fiers | @Twins (Santiago) | @Blue Jays (Dickey) | 5.5 |
Collin McHugh | @Twins (Duffey) | @Blue Jays (Stroman) | 6.25 |
A.J. Griffin | @Rockies (Chatwood) | Tigers (Fulmer) | 5.5 |
Wade LeBlanc | Tigers (Fulmer) | @Athletics (Hahn) | 5.5 |
Wade Miley | @Athletics (Hahn) | @Giants (Cueto) | 5.5 |
R.A. Dickey | Rays (Odorizzi) | Astros (Fiers) | 5.25 |
Edinson Volquez | White Sox (Volquez) | @Twins (Santiago) | 5.75 |
Analysis: Several weeks ago I pointed out that while Ervin Santana wasn’t the next coming of Clayton Kershaw, he had two plus matchups that week, and he had been pitching well prior to those contests – segue to Junior Guerra of the Milwaukee Brewers. Through 17 starts he has only logged 10 decisions, but sits at 7-3 for the year with a 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The 31-year-old has long been relegated to the minor leagues, but has pitched well when provided the opportunity. Guerra’s 4.17 xFIP suggests that his .242 BABIP is in need of an eventual correction, but with upcoming contests scheduled against the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds, don’t bank on that changing next week.
Jake Odorizzi finds himself within my top 15 starters this week, despite a start on the road against the Toronto Blue Jays. Odorizzi has been better than expected in 2016, and has a sub 3.75 ERA in every month of the season with the exception of June. His success stems from dominating left-handed batters, allowing just a .196 AVG and .247 .OBP against them. He’s in the midst of a very hot surge, not allowing an earned run since July 17. He’s still available as a streaming option in shallower formats.
Luis Severino has returned to the New York Yankees rotation after their All-Star break firesale, claiming Ivan Nova’s spot in the order. I totally understand owners from being gun-shy with him, especially in light of his 1-6 record with an ERA over 6.00. Yet consider these facts – Severino was plagued with a stretch of horrible luck earlier this season, to the tune of an unsustainably high .321 BABIP and 23.5 percent HR/FB ratio. His xFIP suggests that his ERA should sit closer to 3.70. I’m willing to give him another shot.
PITCHER | MATCHUP 1 |
Stephen Strasburg | Braves (Foltynewicz) |
Noah Syndergaard | Diamondbacks (Shipley) |
Danny Duffy | @Twins (Gibson) |
Tanner Roark | Braves (Whalen) |
Jacob deGrom | Padres (Cosart) |
Chris Tillman | @Athletics (Gray) |
Jon Lester | Cardinals (Martinez) |
Corey Kluber | Angels (Skaggs) |
Rich Hill | Yankees (Nova) |
Madison Bumgarner | Orioles (Gausman) |
Kenta Maeda | Phillies (Velasquez) |
Jake Arrieta | Cardinals (Wainwright) |
Jon Gray | @Phillies (Eickhoff) |
Gerrit Cole | @Dodgers (McCarthy) |
Masahiro Tanaka | Rays (Andriese) |
Kyle Hendricks | Cardinals (Wacha) |
David Price | Diamondbacks (Bradley) |
Drew Pomeranz | Yankees (Eovaldi) |
J.A. Happ | Rays (Snell) |
Justin Verlander | @Mariners (Hernandez) |
Yu Darvish | Tigers (Boyd) |
Taijuan Walker | @Athletics (Manaea) |
Dylan Bundy | @Giants (Cain) |
Carlos Carrasco | Angels (Shoemaker) |
Vince Velasquez | @Dodgers (Maeda) |
Gio Gonzalez | Indians (Clevinger) |
Dallas Keuchel | @Twins (Santana) |
Felix Hernandez | Tigers (Verlander) |
Jameson Taillon | Padres (Friedrich) |
Kyle Gibson | Royals (Duffy) |
John Lackey | Angels (Nolasco) |
Ervin Santana | Astros (Keuchel) |
Jose Berrios | Astros (Fister) |
Homer Bailey | @Brewers (Nelson) |
James Paxton | Athletics (Graveman) |
Marco Estrada | Rays (Smyly) |
Jeremy Hellickson | @Dodgers (Kazmir) |
Blake Snell | @Blue Jays (Happ) |
Bartolo Colon | Diamondbacks (Ray) |
Jaime Garcia | Reds (DeSclafani) |
Jose Quintana | @Royals (Kennedy) |
Jimmy Nelson | Reds (Bailey) |
Matt Shoemaker | @Indians (Carrasco) |
Steven Wright | Yankees (Pineda) |
Carlos Martinez | @Cubs (Lester) |
Chris Archer | @Yankees (Sabathia) |
Matt Andriese | @Yankees (Tanaka) |
Marcus Stroman | Astros (McHugh) |
Adam Conley | White Sox (Shields) |
Jordan Zimmermann | @Mariners (Iwakuma) |
Jeff Samardzija | @Marlins (Phelps) |
Nathan Eovaldi | @Red Sox (Pomeranz) |
Anthony DeSclafani | "@Cardinals (Garcia) |
CC Sabathia | Rays (Archer) |
Andrew Cashner | White Sox (Rodon) |
Drew Smyly | @Blue Jays (Estrada) |
Brandon Finnegan | @Cardinals (Leake) |
Hisashi Iwakuma | Tigers (Zimmerman) |
Ian Kennedy | White Sox (Quintana) |
Adam Wainwright | @Cubs (Arrieta) |
Matt Moore | @Marlins (Koehler) |
Martin Perez | Rockies (De La Rosa) |
Jerad Eickhoff | Rockies (Gray) |
Anibal Sanchez | @Rangers (Hamels) |
Christian Friedrich | @Pirates (Taillon) |
Aaron Blair | @Brewers (Garza) |
Matt Garza | @Braves (Blair) |
Sonny Gray | Orioles (Tillman) |
Michael Pineda | @Red Sox (Wright) |
Dillon Gee | White Sox (Gonzalez) |
Francisco Liriano | Astros (Musgrove) |
Carlos Rodon | @Marlins (Cashner) |
Sean Manaea | Mariners (Walker) |
Archie Bradley | @Red Sox (Price) |
Yordano Ventura | @Twins (Duffey) |
James Shields | @Marlins (Conley) |
Analysis: Is Danny Duffy really a top three pitcher this week? You bet he is. While I can’t guarantee that he’s going to keep up this level of production for the final few months of the season, owners who have been waiting for him to emerge from the cocoon of mediocrity he’s hidden in the past several seasons have been well rewarded. Duffy lowered his ERA to under 3.00 with his last outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, and (even better for his owners) his WHIP sits at just 1.02. Duffy has really limited the number of free passes allowed, which has translated quickly into success.
Rich Hill makes his first start for the Los Angeles Dodgers against the New York Yankees next week – fingers crossed that he is finally over the blister issues which have caused him to make just three starts since the end of May. When pitching, Hill has been outstanding in 2016. No promises on him completing all of his starts for the remainder of 2016, but when he is out there, he is a borderline SP1.
Jon Gray continues to ascend through my rankings, largely in part to his success on the road. Gray has struck out more than a batter per inning, and has an ERA just a shade over 3.75. His current stretch of quality outings can perhaps be explained due to the level of competition (two matchups against Atlanta and one against Philadelphia), but he has fared well against stronger teams as well. Gray faces the Phillies yet again – I’ll roll the dice on another strong outing with eight strikeouts or so.