2020 has been really hard on everyone and that includes the sports community. It’s been a slow build but this weekend we’ve got one of the most exciting on the sports calendar in a long time. Week 2 of the NFL Season, College Football, the NBA and NHL Playoffs, NASCAR and on top of all that, we’ve got the U.S. Open at Winged Foot Golf Club. I’ve never had to make the decision to either watch a golf major or the NFL and it has me completely flummoxed. I know I would chose to watch any of the four golf majors over any of those other sports but not the NFL. I think I’m going to likely have the Sunday Ticket on my laptop while I put Sunday at the U.S. Open on my big screen. I’m pumped for all of it.
The newly crowded PGA Tour Player of the Year Dustin Johnson leads a top notch field into the 120th U.S. Open this weekend. Do you remember when everyone was stunned by how much of a challenge Olympia Fields posed to these players at the BMW Championship? That will be a walk in the park compared to what Winged Foot will put these players through this weekend. Winged Foot has hosted five U.S. Opens and one PGA Championship in its storied history. Only the 1984 U.S. Open did the winner end the tournament with a score below par, the other four the average winning score was five over par. The last trip here for the U.S. Open was in 2006 and the average round was 75, only one hole played under par for the week and there were just 12 total rounds scored under par the entire weekend. Hale Irwin won here in 1974 with a final score of seven over par. Then USGA president Sandy Tatum said afterwards, “We’re not trying to humiliate the best players in the world. We’re simply trying to identify them.”
The 2006 U.S. Open is most known for the epic collapse of Phil Mickelson. He headed to the 18th tee needing just a par to win and a bogey to tie. Phil had struggled all day with his driver hitting just two fairways but that didn’t stop him from pulling out the big dog once again and drove it out of bounds giving the championship to Geoff Oglivy.
If I told you that Winged Foot was 7,469 yards and played as a Par 70 that would be enough to know that this course will be very difficult but that’s not all. It is known for having extremely difficult putting surfaces. Colin Montgomerie finished runner up at the 2006 U.S. Open and he said, “I think everybody will three-putt out here.” The slopes are so crazy that players joke that you can see the bottom of the cup from the fairway. They may say that in jest but on some of the holes, that is not an exaggeration.
After reading all that, I’m definitely going to have Strokes Gained: Putting as one of my key stats. The bombers will have an advantage and these guys hit it much further than the guys back in 2006 but also they have to avoid the deep stuff. Like most all U.S. Open courses, it will punish you if you land in the rough. Knowing all that, I’ll add Strokes Gained: Off the Tee as one of my key stats. You know I’m going to have Strokes Gained: Approach as well. These players will bogey and bogey a lot this weekend but the player who can avoid them the most will take home the title and that’s why I’m putting bogey avoidance in my key stats. This is another course with a bunch of Par 4s between 450 and 500 yards, so I’m going to look at players’ efficiency in that range. We’ve also got a courses with a bunch of really long Par 3s, so I’m going to target Par 3 efficiency 200-225. These players will be put to task at Winged Foot and survival will be the word of the week.
The last thing I wanted to add is about roster construction this weekend. I have already highlighed why this course is so hard and how much of a struggle it will be. I believe knowing that, you need to target six good golfers in your lineups. That means going with a balanced build over stars and scrubs. I'm going to give you some deep dive plays but there is a reason that those players are under 7K and the likelihood of them making the cut are slim. The way to score the big prizes in these GPPs is getting six players through the cut and hope they can make a move over the weekend. Yea, you may only be able to get one of the big dogs in your lineup but I'd rather lowest priced guy be Brendon Todd than J.T. Poston. I want to trust that everyone in my lineup has the ability to make the cut. I will mention this again in my example lineups article coming out later today.
The weather looks to be good with temps in the mid-60s throughout the weekend. As of right now, there is no real rain in the forecast with winds dabbling in the double digits. As far as conditions, it’ll be much more pleasant than it was a few weeks ago at Olympia Fields.
KEY STATS: Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Putting, Bogey Avoidance, Par 4 Efficiency 450-500, and Par 3 Efficiency 200-225.
ONE AND DONE PLAY: Daniel Berger
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