You have probably heard every superlative there is to describe how good Dustin Johnson was last week at the Northern Trust and he deserved every one of them. It was almost comical how badly he torched that course for four days and now we want to know if he'll keep this going into the BMW Championship.
The FedEx Cup Playoffs head 25 miles south of the Chicago to Olympia Fields Country Club. It has been a while since the PGA Tour has seen this mid-western gem. This course has hosted two U.S. Opens (1928 & 2003), a U.S. Senior Open (1997), a U.S. Amateur (2015), and a Women’s PGA Championship (2017). A few players in the field have had experiences at this track over the years. Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Maverick McNealy, and Robby Shelton all played in the 2015 U.S. Amateur. Tiger Woods, Charles Howell III, Paul Casey, and Adam Scott played this course at the 2003 U.S. Open. While it is nice to have experience on the course, it isn’t the be all end all.
All of those players and 62 others will battle for a chance to play in next week’s Tour Championship. The players who get into the Top 30 of the FedEx Cup Standings by the end of this weekend will travel to Atlanta to East Lake Golf Club. Big names like Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, Jason Day, Matt Kuchar, and Louis Oosthuizen are all on the outside looking in heading into the BMW Championship. We will once again put the FedEx Cup Standings as a Key Stat when picking players for my playbook. This is a no cut event which means you can and should take more risks with your lineups.
The length of this course will be similar to what we saw at TPC Harding Park for the PGA Championship. The course is long for a Par 70, stretching out 7,366 yards. There are only two Par 5s on the course which means the scoring will have to be on the Par 4s. Hole number one in fact is one of those two Par 5s and it’s 626 yards (one of the Top 10 longest holes on the PGA Tour schedule). There are once again a bunch of 450-500 Par 4s for these players to deal with which means I’m adding Par 4 Efficiency 450-500. We’ve got some long Par 3s to deal with as well, so I’m going to throw in Par 3 Efficiency 200-225 into my key stats. Being that not many players have played this course before, we will be looking for smart ball strikers and course managers (Strokes Gained: Tee to Green) to prevail this weekend. I’ll be targeting Strokes Gained: Off the Tee because of the distance and Strokes Gained: Approach as I do every week. I’m going to add scrambling this weekend because the rough has been reportedly raised to four inches this weekend.
The weather looks to be hot and humid on Thursday and Friday with temps in the high 80s but cooling over the weekend down into the mid-to-high 70s. There is a slight chance of rain but only 20 percent at the time I’m writing this article.
The last few weeks I’ve been giving you between 25-30 golfers in my playbook to give you plenty of options for your lineup builds. I will be limited that down this weekend due to the fact that there are only 70 players in the field. When I endorse a golfer in my playbook, he will be used heavily in my own lineups. I don't have Dustin Johnson in my playbook this week, that doesn't mean he isn't a good play. I will likely have him in a small percentage of lineups but I'll be underweight on him compared the guys in my playbook. You would be a fool to completely fade him the way he's playing but also his ownership will be elevated. Collin Morikawa isn't in my playbook but he won at TPC Harding Park which is a similar track to Olympia Fields, doesn't mean I'm going to completely fade him. The guys in this playbook are the guys I'll be heavy on this weekend.
KEY STATS: Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Scrambling, Par 4 Efficiency 450-500, Par 3 Efficiency 200-225 and the FedEx Cup Standings.
ONE & DONE PICK: Scottie Scheffler
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