DFS PGA PLAYBOOK - ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL
Published: Mar 16, 2017
What a win for Adam Hadwin! He was able to hold on and win the Valspar Championship and even better, he was featured in my playbook last week. I just wish I had him in more of my lineups but nothing I can do about that now. It is time to move forward to the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
There will be a different feel to the tournament this year, knowing that the “King” won’t be there. It will feel just a little empty without him roaming the grounds talking to the pros and greeting all of his adoring fans. Arnie was truly one of a kind and one of the most popular golfers in the history of the game. The working-class hero from Latrobe, Pennsylvania became a household name in 1958 when he won his first of four Masters titles. The legend finished his professional career with seven majors including one U.S. Open and two British Opens. He never did complete the career grand slam finishing second in the PGA Championship three times. I apologize for the history lesson but I felt like it had to be said as we head into the event named after him, the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.
This is an invitational which means only a select group of golfers were asked to participate. We will have a total of 120 golfers in the field this week. There will be 18 of the Top 30 golfers in the world participating in this event and side note, only four of those 18 are from the United States. We will have 28 of the Top 50 players teeing off at Bay Hill this weekend, with last week’s winner Adam Hadwin sitting at No. 51 in the world. Now, let’s take a closer look at the course ...
I have a personal list of golf courses that are on my bucket list and this would definitely make the cut. Bay Hill Golf & Lodge is a par 72 that reaches out 7,419 yards. The track went through a redesign in 2010 and another one to the greens in 2016 to help out with the muddy spots around the course. One of the first things I take a look at for this course is the average fairways hit which usually lands around the 65 percent mark. If you look at the players in the Top 10, they are usually right around that mark or even better. There are exceptions to every rule especially when you look at Tiger Woods (8-time winner of this event) history, he usually ranked at the bottom in fairways hit but he can't be compared to anyone else. There is a thick rough around this course which means the smart players will club down off the tee to hit the fairways. Driving distance is nice but not something you have to target on this course. As these players attack these small and firm greens for birdies, you'll want players who have good proximity numbers as well as being a good scramblers and putters. You'll be able to tell rather quickly whether your golfer has his "A" game as the first three holes at Bay Hill are considered the toughest opening three holes on the Tour.
The weather will not be a factor this week, unlike last year. We’ve got sunny skies and temps in the 70s throughout the weekend.
FANDUEL STARTS GOLF!
So, you’ll notice something new in my playbook, we’ve got Fanduel pricing listed. Fanduel opens their new Golf game to the public this weekend and like all of you, I’m going to be learning on the fly this week. Fanduel made their game completely different to DraftKings and I’m not sure why but here is how it works. You will play a total of eight golfers in your Fanduel lineup, four of your golfers will participate on Thursday and Friday (Rounds 1 & 2) and the other four will play on Saturday and Sunday (Rounds 3 & 4). The basic strategy will be to play your riskier plays in the first two rounds knowing that they will get to play at least the two rounds. The last two rounds, you’ll want to play your top tier or safer guys who you fully expect to be there on the weekend. This will be a learning process for all of us, but it should be a fun experiment.
If you want to chat with me throughout the weekend, feel free to tweet me at @Drew_Phelps83.
DFS PGA PLAYBOOK:
PLAYER | DRAFT KINGS | FANDUEL | BREAKDOWN |
Rory McIlory | $12,000 | $10,700 | He is always a favorite whenever he tees it up. Rested after his T7 in Mexico. Finished T27 last year. Tough to Fit |
Henrik Stenson | $11,500 | $10,200 | Bounced back from his sickness to T7 at Copperhead. KILLS IT at Bay Hill with a T8-T5-2nd-T3 since 2013. Love Him Here |
Rickie Fowler | $9,900 | $9,500 | Won at PGA National & a T16 in Mexico. He's ready to honor Arnie this week w/baller shoes. T3 in 2013 at Bay Hill. |
Justin Rose | $9,500 | $9,700 | Top 15s in 4 of his last 5 Trips to Bay Hill. Leads the TOUR in SG:Off-The-Tee & 5th in Adjusted Scoring. |
Tyrell Hatton | $9,100 | $7,800 | 1st Trip to Bay Hill which I usually don't love but T4 at PGA National & T10 at WGC-Mexico. 7 Top 10s Worldwide since Oct. |
Brandt Snedeker | $9,000 | $8,800 | Top 10s in 3 of his last 4 Starts. He has Top 15s at Bay Hill in 2014 & 2015. Quietly having a really good season. |
Paul Casey | $8,800 | $8,900 | T20s in his last two starts. T9 at Bay Hill last year (Best Finished of his Career Here). Ranked 2nd SG:TG. |
Francisco Molinari | $8,600 | $7,700 | 7 Top 20s in his last 8 Starts since October of 2016. He as Top 20s in each of his last 3 Trips to Bay Hill. |
Zach Johnson | $8,500 | $8,500 | 14th Trip to Bay Hill with 5 Top 10s (2 of those in his last 2 Trips). He gets lost amongst the bombers on tour |
Kevin Na | $7,800 | $7,400 | 6/6 Cuts Made at Bay Hill since 2009 (3 Top 10s & Another 2 Top 15s). Coming off the sickness, people could be fading. |
Tony Finau | $7,600 | $7,800 | You HAVE to love what he did last week at Copperhead. Ranked #1 in Fairways hit & 2nd in GIR. Finished 5th |
Jamie Lovemark | $7,500 | $6,200 | T6 last year at Bay Hill (Finished 3rd in Distance of All Drives & Lead the field in Scrambling). 43rd on TOUR in SG:TG. |
Martin Kaymer | $7,400 | $8,000 | CONTRARIAN PLAY. He's 0/1 at Bay Hill (2008) but he's a consistent stud with 2 T4s and 3 more Top 25s in his last 6 starts |
Tommy Fleetwood | $7,200 | $7,300 | Another rook on this track but in his season debut at the WGC-Mexico finished 2nd (T5 in GIR & 2nd Scrambling) |
Wesley Bryan | $7,100 | $6,700 | Amazing run for the rookie with a T4-T4-T7 since Riviera. Putter has put him on ANOTHER level. A little wary of a rookie on this track |
Graeme McDowell | $7,000 | $6,900 | 2-Time Runner up at Bay Hill with a T10 in 2014. He's got back-to-back T14s in Florida. Putting has been AMAZING! |
Pat Perez | $7,000 | $6,700 | 3 Top 10s at Bay Hill (None since 2009) with 11/13 Cuts Made Record. He's playing TERRIFIC Golf since the Injury |
Charles Howell III | $6,900 | $7,200 | 14/15 Cuts Made at Bay Hill since 2002 (6 Top 25s). 11/11 Cuts Made this season with 7 Top 15 finishes. |
Marc Leishman | $6,800 | $7,100 | 7 Top 30 Finishes in his last 8 starts. 5/7 Cuts Made at Bay Hill with a T2 in 2011 & T17 Last Year. |
Morgan Hoffmann | $6,700 | $5,400 | Excellent around the green. Finished 4th here in 2015 and put up a T2 at PGA National 3 weeks ago |
Chad Campbell | $6,700 | $5,100 | 11/12 Cuts Made at Bay Hill (7 Top 25s). Winner in 2004 & T8 in 2005. Finished T11 at Copperhead last week. |
DRAFT KINGS OPTIMALS:
DRAFT KINGS CASH | PRICE |
Henrik Stenson | $11,500 |
Justin Rose | $9,500 |
Kevin Na | $7,600 |
Graeme McDowell | $7,000 |
Charles Howell III | $6,900 |
Marc Leishman | $6,800 |
DRAFT KINGS GPP | PRICE |
Rory McIlory | $12,000 |
Rickie Fowler | $9,900 |
Tony Finau | $7,600 |
Marc Leishman | $6,800 |
Morgan Hoffmann | $6,700 |
Chad Campbell | $6,700 |
FANDUEL OPTIMALS:
FANDUEL CASH | ROUNDS | PRICE |
Chad Campbell | 1 & 2 | $5,100 |
Morgan Hoffman | 1 & 2 | $5,400 |
Jamie Lovemark | 1 & 2 | $6,200 |
Pat Perez | 1 & 2 | $6,700 |
Henrik Stenson | 3 & 4 | $10,200 |
Justin Rose | 3 & 4 | $9,700 |
Rickie Fowler | 3 & 4 | $9,500 |
Wesley Bryan | 3 & 4 | $6,700 |
FANDUEL GPP | ROUNDS | PRICE |
Chad Campbell | 1 & 2 | $5,100 |
Graeme McDowell | 1 & 2 | $6,900 |
Marc Leishman | 1 & 2 | $7,100 |
Tommy Fleetwood | 1 & 2 | $7,300 |
Brandt Snedeker | 3 & 4 | $8,800 |
Francisco Molinari | 3 & 4 | $7,700 |
Justin Rose | 3 & 4 | $9,500 |
Charles Howell III | 3 & 4 | $7,200 |
ONE & DONE PLAY:
ONE AND DONE PLAY | FINISH |
SBS - Jimmy Walker | T9 |
Sony - Charles Howell III | T8 |
Career - Bill Haas | T17 |
Farmers - Brandt Snedeker | T9 |
Waste - Brendan Steele | T16 |
Pebble - Phil Mickelson | 65th |
Genesis - J.B Holmes | T34 |
Honda - Graeme McDowell | T14 |
Mexico - Alexander Noren | T55 |
Valspar - Ryan Moore | T18 |
Arnold Palmer - Zach Johnson | ? |