DFS PGA Playbook - Arnold Palmer Invitational
Drew Phelps explores every Fairway, reads every Green and uses all of his DFS Golf experience to uncover his top fantasy plays for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in Orlando, Florida.
Anytime I see Arnold Palmer out on a golf course, it brings a smile to my face. "The King" is still one of the most popular golfers in the history of the game and one of the sports' first true superstars of the television era. The working class hero from Latrobe, Pennsylvania became a house hold name in 1958 when he won his first of four Masters titles. The legend finished his professional career with seven majors including one U.S. Open and two British Opens. He never did complete the career grand slam finishing second in the PGA Championship three times. I apologize for the history lesson but I felt there was need as we head into the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.
This is an invitational which means only a select group of golfers were asked to participate. We will have a total of 120 golfers in the field this week which is not as small as the WGC (66) from two weeks back but smaller than your average PGA Tour event. Stars and scrubs should be the name of the game this week especially in your GPP tournaments. Now, lets take a closer look at the course ...
I have a personal list of golf courses that our on my bucket list and this would be the first one on the PGA Tour schedule. Bay Hill Golf & Lodge is a par 72 that reaches out 7,419 yards. The track went through a redesign in 2010 and another one to the greens in 2016 to help out with the muddy spots around the course. One of the first things I take a look at for this course is the average fairways hit which usually lands around the 65 percent mark. If you look at the players in the Top 10, they are usually right around that mark or even better. There are exceptions to every rule especially when you look at Tiger Woods (8-time winner of this event) history, he usually ranked at the bottom in fairways hit but he can't be compared to anyone else. There is a thick rough around this course which means the smart players will club down off the tee to hit the fairways. Driving distance is nice but not something you have to target on this course. As these players attack these small and firm greens for birdies, you'll want players who have good proximity numbers as well as being a good scramblers and putters. You'll be able to tell rather quickly whether your golfer has his "A" game as the first three holes at Bay Hill are considered the toughest opening three holes on the Tour.
The weather will be a factor this weekend. We have a good threat of rain and thunderstorms in the forecast throughout the tournament weekend. It looks like things will get even worse on Saturday and Sunday as the temperatures drop from the mid-80s into the upper 70s. You have to hope that your golfers to get off to good start before the weather turns bad.
Finally, we have to say hello to our friend and guide throughout this Fantasy Golf season, Paige. Once again, if you have not checked our her instagram page, you are truly missing out (@_paige.renee). Paige encourages us all to get our game faces on for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
My loyal readers know that it has been a tough road over the past few weeks but I really appreciate your dedication and support. I put my blood, sweat and tears into these playbooks and I'm living and dying right alongside you every week. If you want to chat with me throughout the weekend, feel free to comment below but I am much more active and responsive on Twitter (@Drew_Phelps83). Also, I have to thank the Fantasy Alarm's fearless leader Jeff Mans and his partner Tommy G from SiriusXM Daily Fantasy Sports for giving me a weekly spot on Wednesdays to break down the upcoming tournament. Their show airs weeknights from 5-6pm eastern.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND!
DFS PGA PLAYBOOK:
|Rory McIlory||6,200||12,000||All About his Putting. Best Driver in the World. T11 Last Year. Rounding into Masters form|
|Henrik Stenson||5,900||11,100||Last 4 Trips: T15, T8, T5, & 2nd. 11th Last Week. T4 in GIR & T1 in Par 5 Scoring|
|Justin Rose||5,800||10,500||3 Top 10s in 11 Trips. 2nd in 2013. 4/5 Cuts Made this Season with 2 Top 6s. Up & Down History Here.|
|Ryan Moore||5,250||9,800||3rd Last week. 4 Top 10s in 7 Starts this Season. He's got a 4th & 12th at Bay Hill. The putter is working|
|Matt Kuchar||5,600||9,400||Contrarian Play after last week's disappointment. He has a game that fits here. 8/8 Cuts Made this Season|
|Kevin Kisner||5,700||8,900||Hits Fairways, Greens & Putts, fits this place great. Struggling coming in makes him CONTRARIAN!|
|Harris English||5,150||8,400||3/4 Cuts Made at Bay Hill (High of 14th). Favorite Contrarian Play after Last Week's Missed Cut|
|Zach Johnson||5,450||8,300||TOO GOOD TO BE PRICE HERE! Finished 9th & 11th in his Last 4 Trips to Bay Hill. Huge Weekend Upside|
|Charles Howell III||5,050||8,000||T5 Last Week (3rd Top 10 in 12 Starts This Season). 13/15 Cuts Made at Bay Hill (6 Top 25s)|
|Matt Jones||4,600||7,900||Contrarian because of recent play (2 missed cuts in a row). 3rd here in 2015, 14th in 2014.|
|Jason Kokrak||4,650||7,900||T6 in 2015, 4th in 2014 but hasn't broken par in the 4th Round. T2 at Riviera. Will be POPULAR|
|Gary Woodland||4,850||7,700||Top 25s in Last 2 Trips to Bay Hill. He has made 10 Consecutive Cuts on Tour. Nice Value|
|William McGirt||4,850||7,700||Success at Bay Hill with a T8 in 2013. Playing Well with a T8 at the Honda (3rd Top 10 this Season)|
|David Lingmerth||4,800||7,600||He has NEVER missed the cut here (13th high finish in 2015). Love him in Cash|
|Matt Every||4,600||7,500||BACK TO BACK CHAMPION but will be CRAZY high owned because of that.|
|Scott Brown||4,500||7,400||Top 10s in 2 Starts on the Floirda Swing. Led SGP & All Around Last Week. 13th at Bay Hill in 2013.|
|Francisco Molinari||4,500||7,200||3/3 Cuts Made in Last 3 Trips to Bay Hill with 2 Top 20s. Contrarian because of his recent play|
|Ian Poulter||4,400||7,100||5 Consecutive Top 25s at Bay Hill (3rd & 12th). Hits Fairways & Hits Nice Long Irons|
|Ben Martin||4,400||7,000||5th in 2015 at Bay Hill. Love Florida Golf with his straight shooting & great long iron play. 6/9 Cuts Made this Season|
|George McNeill||4,350||7,000||6/6 Cuts Made Here since 2008. T14 in 2014 & T35 in 2015. T11 Last Week at Valspar.|
|Andrew Loupe||3,950||6,900||Risk/Reward Play. He has the game but need to make the cut, if he does, could score BIG!|
|Hudson Swafford||3,900||6,300||T11 Last Year but not great numbers overall & should be lower owned. Florida guy loves it here|
|Mark Hubbard||4,000||6,100||He makes cuts (12/13) with his putter but sucks on the weekend. Cash Option (Won't help in GPPs)|
|Chad Campbell||4,250||6,000||He makes cuts at Bay Hill but is not playing well coming in. Worth a Flier in a GPP|
DRAFT KINGS OPTIMALS:
|DRAFT KINGS CASH||PRICE|
|Charles Howell III||8,000|
|DRAFT KINGS GPP||PRICE|
FANTASY ACES OPTIMALS:
|Charles Howell III||5,050|
|ONE AND DONE PLAY||FINISH|
|Hyaundai: Patrick Reed||2nd - $688,000|
|Sony: Harris English||T56 - $12,818|
|CareerBuilder: Bill Haas||T9 - $162,400|
|Farmers: Nick Watney||Missed Cut|
|Phoenix: Ryan Moore||T11 - $149,500|
|Pebble: J.B. Holmes||T11 - $143,500|
|Northern Trust: K.J. Choi||T5 - $258,400|
|Honda: Luke Donald||T61 - $13,115|
|WGC-Cadillac: Dustin Johnson||T14 - $120,000|
|Valspar: Kevin Na||T22 - $52,959.09|
|Arnold Palmer: Francisco Molinari||???|