Didn’t we just do this a few months ago? Trust me, I'm not complaining about seeing Augusta National more than once in a twelve month period. In my mind, this is the Super Bowl of the PGA Tour season and as Jim Nantz likes to say, "it’s a tradition unlike any other”.
First, as I mentioned in my Best Bets article on Monday, we’ve only got 90 players in the field but you can basically ignore all of the amateurs and the old timers playing this weekend. It’s all about the 50 players who have a legitimate chance to win this weekend. My job is to provide you with the golfers I feel have the best combination of price, ownership and level of play to help you win come Sunday. It is always extremely hard to narrow down my playbook to these select few, especially from the top tier. I wouldn't fault you if you played anyone $9,000 plus.
When you talk about Augusta National, I don’t really need to go into much detail because it's one of the most well-known courses in the world. It is a Par 72 that measures out to between 7,400 and 7,500 yards depending on the daily setup. This course is very difficult and true test of a golfer's game. There are very long Par 4’s, and reachable Par 5’s. The greens are always the fastest on tour and hard for these players to stick because of the shave edges. Since the course was lengthened in 2010, we've seen a majority of 300 yard bombers winning or finishing in the Top 10 but there are exceptions to every rule namely Charl Schwartzel, Danny Willett, Jordan Spieth, and Patrick Reed. When looking over the course history, good greens in regulation numbers have been found to be very beneficial to success at Augusta.
Augusta National will always be known as a second shot course. That means our favorite stat comes back into play this weekend, Strokes Gained: Approach. That means targeting great long iron players aka ball strikers. Tiger Woods may be the most outstanding iron player ever and that’s why he’s got five green jackets hanging in his closet. It’s the only way to score on this course, putting yourself in as many birdie making opportunities as possible. Tiger was also the best scrambler in the history of the game which puts that into my key stats of the week.
Course history is vitally important when it comes to the Masters even if it is just one previous trip like we saw with Danny Willett and Jordan Spieth over the last few years. No player has won at Augusta on their first attempt since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. When you look at the Top 20 leaderboard from back in November, you’ll see a lot of players with experience but we did see a few first timers like Sungjae Im, C.T. Pan and Cameron Champ slip into the mix. I will once again not put Bryson DeChambeau into my playbook for the Masters. I know all about his skills and success recently but he will attempt to overpower Augusta and I just don’t think that can happen. He may have a good round or two but I don’t think he can do it for four days. Feel free to roster him as much as you would like, I'll have limited shares personally but you can call me an Augusta purest but I want to see it work before I believe.
Finally, the weather always plays a factor at Augusta because it is known for changing on a whim. We are seeing rain in the forecast on Friday and Saturday. The temperatures will be in the high 70s and low 80s with humidity levels about 50% throughout the weekend.
I say this every time the Masters rolls around but it truly is a one of a kind event that every fan of the sport looks forward too. Growing up, there were few things I enjoyed more than watching Sunday at Augusta with my Dad. The Masters also signifies the start of the golf season which means dusting off the old clubs and getting out to the driving range.
MY ONE & DONE PICK IS: Jordan Spieth (If you are afraid of ownership in your league, I'd also recommend Patrick Cantlay)
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