Seattle Slew: Running Game Revival

While this title, on the surface, references the 1977 Triple Crown winner, I mean to use it in the more literal sense…

“Slew” is defined in the dictionary as “to turn violently or uncontrollably in the opposite direction.” Seattle is a city in the state of Washington, in which the Seahawks play. Putting the two together, I’m here to shed some light upon the sudden turnaround of the Seahawks running game, a rapid change of which can only be defined as a “slew” – a violent turn in the opposite direction.

From the years 2012-2015 – the Seahawks golden age – Seattle was comfortably a top-four rushing offense, peaking as the best rushing attack in the league in 2014. They went to two Super Bowls during that span, led by a legendary defense, a young and talented quarterback, and Marshawn Lynch – the focal point of their top-ranked rushing attack. Then, as happens with all football dynasties, the pieces began to depart as quickly as they rose to prominence. Their once anointed “Legion of Boom” defense quickly eroded into free agent veterans looking for a bigger pay day. Marshawn Lynch would unsurprisingly run into a myriad of injuries and would in time join the Raiders. And while Russell Wilson only got better as the years went on, he proved to be the only significant piece of left from the Seattle golden age, brining tougher times to the franchise and particularly their once dominant ground game.

In the following seasons, 2016 and 2017, the Seahawks still managed to finish above .500 however the spark that used to lead them to deep playoff runs was no longer there. Over the last two seasons, Seattle has offered a bottom-10 ground game, finishing 25th and 23rd in the league in 2016 and 2017 respectively. During 2017, things got so bad that Russell Wilson – a quarterback – finished as the team’s leading rusher, and by a wide margin too. He became the first quarterback since Randall Cunningham to accomplish this and just the third quarterback since the merger. While it is a testament on Wilson’s versatility, grit, and leadership, it is not a badge of honor for the state of the franchise.

Entering this offseason, there were clues that change was coming for the Seahawks offense. There was plenty of chatter discussing potential free agent signings, while the draft was running back heavy. Looking to address their main malady, the Seahawks made the most surprising pick of April’s draft, as they took Rashaad Penny – a player whom I had ranked in the fourth round – in the first round. Now while Penny – spoiler alert – didn’t exactly work out as an immediate contributor, this move made it clear that the Seahawks were doing all they could to remedy their ground game shortcomings.

If we fast forward to Week 12 of this season, here we are now and the Seahawks have the best rushing attack in the NFL and it isn’t even really close. They are averaging 154.3 yards per game while the next closest is averaging 138.5.

So what has changed?

To me it mainly seems to be a philosophical offensive identity shift and a commitment to that cause. This year, Seattle is the only team in the NFL calling more running plays than passing plays (51%) while last year they were one of the most pass heavy teams in the league (60% pass). Yes, they have also seen some improved offensive line play, but the actual commitment to the ground game has allowed some lesser known guys a chance to show what they can do. While rookie Rashaad Penny has had to earn his reps, Chris Carson and Mike Davis have been given a big workload for the first time in their careers and they have not disappointed. Carson is leading the team in yards, carries, and touchdowns and is doing things like this…

That type of creative and hard-nosed running style is keeping drives alive and more importantly is taking guys away from the defensive backfield, forcing teams to play the Seattle receivers 1v1. Subsequently, Russell Wilson has had a much easier time getting rid of the ball this season and he is completing passes at 5% better clip. This is significant.

With just a stronger commitment to the ground game, the Seahawks have trickled down the savings to the rest of their team. Ronald Reagan would be proud. The rushing attack is stronger and more frequent, making the passing game more efficient. With a better offense, they string together longer drives, keeping their less talented defense off the field. The team is better for it and so is the production for potential fantasy owners.  

Week 11 Recap

In comparison to the last two weeks, Week 11 was closer to a wide receiver week than it was one championed by excellent running back performances. Still though, we saw two backs eclipse the 30 point plateau -- Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley .

While Zeke racked up over 200 yards of total offense and a boat load of receptions to compliment his work on the ground, Barkley accomplished his excellent fantasy day through 140+ rushing yards and three total touchdowns.

Beyond those two, the elite performances came more sporadically in Week 11. Both Philip Lindsay and Aaron Jones went over 25 PPR fantasy points, but neither did so with over 100 rushing yards. Instead, Lindsay and Jones made huge impacts through a balanced stat line of both running the football and catching it. They each also got into the end zone twice, which solidified their place as top-five scorers for Week 11.

Beyond those two, four more backs got over the 20 point mark, including Mark Ingram , Kareem Hunt , Melvin Gordon , and Leonard Fournette . None of these guys were surprising to see with over 20 points, however considering the dead-split committee that Ingram is in, it was impressive to see him with more than 22 points and over 100 rushing yards for the second straight week. He’s accomplished this with no more than 16 touches in either week.

Of the remaining running backs for Week 11, a few more names jump out. Something called Gus Edwards came out of nowhere and saw 17 carries for 115 yards and a score. He came 0.5 points shy of breaking the 20 point plateau. Word is that his production came directly as a result of the Joe Flacco injury. By that I mean that because he had such an excellent rapport with Lamar Jackson and the read option during practice all season long, the Ravens thought it would be smart to pair Jackson with his favorite option back for the sake of familiarity, regardless of his standing on the depth chart. Sorry Alex Collins owners... Bucs starting back Peyton Barber also came up just shy of 20 points on Sunday, as he racked up his first 100+ yard rushing performance of the season. He should be an interesting play in DFS for Week 12 at home against the 49ers. Finally there is Todd Gurley , who in a game in which his team scored a whopping 54 points, he somehow failed to even manage 13 PPR points. This was by far Gurley’s worst outing of the season and the first time all year that he failed to eclipse 19.9 points.

Who I Like in DFS This Week

Week 11 delivered some good and some bad picks from my DFS corner of this article. I went all in on Zeke and he paid off in spades with well over 30 points and 200+ scrimmage yards. However I also liked Todd Gurley against the Chiefs terrible rush defense, but the game was too back and forth to properly get him involved. Chris Carson proved to be a somewhat decent pivot play for the non-main slate, while Alex Collins started off his game great with a touchdown and then was never given the ball again. The NFL can be frustrating sometimes.

This week, I will go in a slightly different direction considering how DraftKings is splitting their slates due to the holiday. I’ll give you locks of the week, solid main slate plays, solid Thanksgiving plays, and lower priced flex options. Enjoy...

Locks of the Week

Saquon Barkley @ PHI ($9,100)

The last time Barkley played the Eagles, he racked up 229 total yards, scored a touchdown on the ground, and caught nine passes. Currently, he’s far and away the frontrunner for the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award and may be playing his best football to date. While he’s the most expensive guy on the slate, he still can’t be faded considering his history against Philly and how bad the Eagles have been playing of late – particularly against the run.

Melvin Gordon vs. ARZ ($8,600)

Despite having yet to register a 20+ carry game this season, Melvin Gordon has scored under 20 fantasy points in a game only twice in 2018. This week, he and the Chargers welcome the Cardinals and their bottom-five rush defense into town, for a contest where he should clearly be the offensive focal point. The Chargers are coming off of an embarrassing home loss to Denver and will be out for revenge against the lowly Cardinals this week. Listed second on the main slate price list, he serves as a reliable pivot from Barkley this week.

Main Slate Plays

Joe Mixon vs. CLE ($6,800)

While I like the two top-priced guys this week, Mixon is a player who makes sense in all types of lineups and will probably be my highest owned for the slate. First of all, he’s eighth highest priced back for the week, which means that you can get him at reasonable value. Secondly, Mixon is coming off of a horrendous game last week on the road against Baltimore, which means that you can probably get him at some depreciated ownership. Third and finally is his matchup… the Browns are the second worst rush defense in football and the last ranked tackling defense, according to Pro Football Focus. While the defend the pass well, they tend to get gashed on the ground for most of their games. This bodes well for a huge Joe Mixon bounce-back week, as he has been seeing some of the highest usage rate of NFL running backs this season.

Nick Chubb @ CIN ($6,300)

Mixon’s counterpart in the matchup is rookie Nick Chubb , who has been fantastic since seizing the starting job. As for his matchup, Chubb will be getting the Bengals and their dead last ranked defense in terms of rushing yards and passing yards. Without much passing game to speak of, the Browns are once again expected to lean heavily on Chubb, who will be looking to build off of his 36 point outing in his last game. Chubb comes at a $300 discount from Mixon as well.

Matt Breida @ TB ($5,700)

Up and down the board, it has been just a terrible year for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Particularly on the defensive side of the ball though, the Bucs have offered one of the most gettable units in football. Pro Football Focus currently has Tampa ranked as the third worst rush defense in football this season, while Matt Breida is coming off of his best game of the season by far. At $5,700, Breida offers a high floor and ceiling for your RB2 spot or Flex position on DraftKings this week.

Thanksgiving Plays

Ezekiel Elliott vs. WAS ($8,600)

I shouldn’t really have to explain myself here, considering how good he and the Cowboys offensive line has been of late. The only concern is that the Redskins shut Zeke down in their first meeting of the season, but both teams are in very different places from when they last played. Dallas is the home favorite and desperately needs this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Zeke should eat a lot of turkey on Thursday night.

Mark Ingram vs. ATL ($6,100)

Atlanta is horrible defensively, particularly on the ground over the last two weeks as they were gouged by Nick Chubb for 176 yards and by Ezekiel Elliott for over 200 all-purpose yards. Now, in comes New Orleans – potentially the Falcons worst nightmare considering the current state of  their defense. New Orleans not only boasts the highest scoring offense in football, but they also may have the hottest running game in the league right now. Mark Ingram – playing as the second running back option – has rushed for over 100 yards in two consecutive games. While he didn’t exactly face any powerhouse rush defenses along the way, the Falcons are dead last in the league against opposing running backs on DraftKings, so this matchup really can’t get any juicier. I understand that Ingram is the second option for the Saints, but apparently that doesn’t even matter, they are just that good. At $6,100, Ingram is a nice bargain option from the elite priced backs. He has scored over 25 DraftKings in each of the last two weeks and should do so again on Turkey Day.

LeGarrette Blount vs. CHI ($3,400)

I don’t love what Blount offers in terms of talent, however circumstance lands him on this list. It appears that Kerryon Johnson isn’t going to play on Thanksgiving, leaving a gaping backfield void in Detroit. Yes the Bears have a stout defense and yes Blount isn’t good anymore, but at $3,400 I wouldn’t be surprised if he paid out value with low ownership and a couple of vulture touchdowns on Thursday afternoon. He’s worth a dart throw simply because of price, potential volume, and touchdown uspide.

Flex Flyers

Josh Adams vs. NYG ($3,800)

Since the trade of Snacks Harrison, the Giants have been leaky up front. They have allowed over 100 rushing yards to three straight starting running backs, two of which had only done so once all year combined. I think that Josh Adams adds his name to that exclusive no-name list, as he is beginning to emerge as the Eagles best backfield option. Potentially pegged as the starter, Adams has himself a fantastic matchup and an even better price on DraftKings. He will be plugged in as a flex in many of my lineups this week.

Gus Edwards vs. OAK ($4,600)

This play hinges on whether or not Lamar Jackson gets another start this week. If he does, I would expect the game plan to remain the same, as the Ravens would run the option up and down the field at home, all day against the lowly Raiders.