I Wish You Would Step Back From That Ledge My Friend…
Reading that title likely gave you some serious nostalgia.
Third Eye Blind; what a band!
The late 90’s, what a carefree time for alternative rock and radio hits in general…
Now that the urge to sing that catchy tune is out of our system, Alvin Kamara owners, take a moment, heed these words, and please… Step back from that ledge my friend!
I understand what happened earlier this week was alarming... Mark Ingram returned in Week 5, outpaced Kamara by five snaps, out touched him by 10 carries, out rushed him by 29 yards, and scored two TD’s to Kamara’s zero. I get the fear and anger, I’m a Kamara owner myself and lost last week because of his underwhelming output, but we need to stop being so reactionary when it comes to fantasy football, people.
The Fantasy Alarm twitter account must have gotten 1,000+ questions about who they should trade Kamara for and is their season over because of the return of Mark Ingram ?
Everyone’s gotta chill out.
Here are the facts. Alvin Kamara is still the leading scorer in ESPN’s PPR Standard scoring formats, and that is even after his horrendous 6.9 point dud in Week 5. We also have to keep in mind that Mark Ingram ’s presence was alive and well all of last year and Kamara still outscored him by a wide margin (42.4 points) – and that was with Ingram having played a significant role in all 16 games, while Kamara was third string until Week 4.
Look, it’s not every week that the Saints are going to have the game well in hand by the end of the first half; game flow dictated these two back’s usage on Monday night, no question about it. The reality is that by the late second quarter, the game became a “run out the clock” situation for the Saints and they felt it necessary to use that time to get their formerly suspended back some much needed work. Ingram proved capable and managed to keep the game a laugher until the clock struck zero.
With all of this being said, let’s not overreact and pretend that Kamara is the RB2 in this offense all of a sudden.
Yes, Ingram will eat into Kamara’s workload and yes, unfortunately Kamara will no longer be the unquestioned best fantasy back in football, but he will still undoubtedly handle the passing down reps and the majority of the lead back duties, while he will also remain a top-five back going forward.
So please, take this public service announcement…
"Annndd, cut ties with all the lies that you’ve been living in (pertaining to Kamara), but if you do not want to hear from me again, I will understaaaaannnnnnnddddd!"
(sing that last line in the same tune as Jumper and you will get what I’m going for. I hope, at least. Oh, well, I tried…)
Guys We’re Not Talking About Enough…
What happens often in the fantasy football community is that singular big game performances, a player’s team record, and general fantasy media echo-chambering can keep us talking about the same guys every week, without much variation. Not all of these factors are needed nor are mutually exclusive, however the fact of the matter is that we oftentimes keep discussing the same handful of names each week. My goal here is to give a quick update on another handful of running backs that aren’t getting talked about enough, for one reason or another.
James White – New England Patriots
If heading into this season, you thought that James White would be the seventh best scoring running back in PPR formats, raise your hand. Not counting too many hands through my computer screen right now. Don’t feel bad, no one predicted this. We all know that White has been a long time favorite of Tom Brady ’s as a bail out option on passing downs, but this year he has become one of the Patriots offensive focal points, thanks to a finally uncluttered backfield. While he may not maintain his current pace of scoring, White owners can remain confident that he will consistently be one of the best receiving backs in the game. Right now he’s on pace to break the receptions record for the position and I wouldn’t count him out.
T.J. Yeldon – Jacksonville Jaguars
We hear all about Leonard Fournette , can you trust Blake Bortles , and how great this Jaguars defense is, but we never hear about T.J. Yeldon . This year, he has done a fantastic job filling in for the injured and aforementioned Fournette, to the point that he’s been the eighth most productive fantasy back so far this season. He’s scored at least 15 PPR points in four out of the five games this year and has arguably been one of the most consistent backs in the game over that stretch. My belief is that even when Fournette does return, Yeldon has done more than enough to remain heavily involved in this offense going forward. He may be worth a “buy low” trade candidate once Fournette returns healthy.
David Johnson – Arizona Cardinals
I get that people are highly disappointed in Johnson after spending a top-three pick on him this season, and while he’s on a terrible Cardinals team, there is no reason for the disrespect that he’s been getting on DraftKings. Right now, Johnson is a top-10 scoring back according to ESPN’s PPR Standard format. That makes him a pretty comfortable RB1 in most leagues, and yet DraftKings has consistently priced him amongst the top-15-20 range in terms of running back rankings. While he struggled early on, Johnson has become a very consistent high-teens, low-20’s source of points each week, and that is while playing through some tough matchups. This week, his DK price has hit rock bottom at $5,900. I get that he’s on the road against a typically tough Minnesota defense, but with his talent and volume alone, he should pay off that price. His potential is too high for his pricing disrespect. Expect him to only get better going forward.
Kareem Hunt – Kansas City Chiefs
This season we’ve heard all about the 5-0 Chiefs and their electric passing attack, but have you heard Kareem Hunt ’s name mentioned lately? He too is a top-10 back this season, being completely written off because of the high-powered passing offense that he operates in. After an early season “struggle” Hunt has since found his stride, scoring four touchdowns in his last three games, while the Patrick Mahomes experience has slowed down ever-so slightly over the same stretch. Even after starting slow out of the gates, Hunt is leading the league in broken tackles on run plays and is in the top-five in terms of elusiveness according to Pro Football Focus. As this Chiefs offense regresses to the mean of typical NFL run/pass balance, Hunt will quickly rise again to fantasy radar prominence, but here’s your chance to hop back on the train first.
Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals
Yes, I know that Mixon missed two weeks already with an injury, but in the three games he has played, here are his stat lines...
Week 1: 17 rushes, 95 yards, one TD; five catches, 54 yards. Week 2: 21 carries, 84 yards. Week 5: 22 carries, 93 yards; 3 catches, 22 yards, one TD.
Simply put, he’s been efficient, effective, and heavily involved when healthy. Last week, he saw every carry out of the Bengals backfield and appears to have 100% control of this workhorse moniker. He’s a great fantasy back and no one is talking about him. Also, the Bengals are 4-1… Did anyone know that?
Sony Michel – New England Patriots
This is the second Patriots back on this list, and for good reason, as they have been very effective out of the backfield in lieu of receiver talent this season. This offseason the Pats used a second rounder on Michel and so far it is paying off in spades. In his three starts, Michel is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and over 86 rushing yards per game. While James White has been the receiving threat, Michel has been the feature back and the one who grinds down the clock. He sees most of the goal line work and long term may end up being the better option to own of the two New England backs. We hear so much of the other rookie backs in the league this season… Saquon Barkley tearing it up, Royce Freeman and Kerryon Johnson emerging, Rashaad Penny sucking, but where is the love for Michel?
Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers
Jones has been active for three games so far this season, and if the Packers could get a comfortable lead any time soon, he many be a back that you hear much more of going forward. Currently, Jones is third in the league in yards per carry (6.1) and grades out second in both rushing grade and overall offensive grade at the running back position, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s the firm leader in the clubhouse for the Packers most talented running back and each week that sentiment only seems to be getting stronger amongst the coaching staff. Buy his stock before it is too late.
NostraDomUs Boldly Predicts
Each week – whether through a DFS or a season-long lens – your beloved prophet, NostraDomUs, will offer a few predictions for the week to come at the running back position. In each following edition, we will reflect upon the previous predictions and keep a running tally across the season, termed “prophetic percentage.” Now without further ado… I give you NostraDomUs!
How’d we do last week?
Prediction #1: After scoring 22 or more DraftKings points in the first four games of his career, Saquon Barkley will fail to make it five in Week 5. Wrong
Prediction #2: For the first time since November of 2014, Marshawn Lynch will rush for 100 or more yards in consecutive weeks. Wrong
Welp, this is a lot harder than I thought it would be. Right now I’m boldly predicting a a 20% clip while I expected to be somewhere around the 50% mark. In any event, lets go over what went wrong last week… We’ll start with the big whiff, and that was doubting Saquon Barkley . Instead of scoring less than 22 DraftKings, he went out and had his best fantasy performance of the season. My thought process was seemingly sound, considering the Panthers were coming off of a bye and that the Giants have been terrible against everyone pretty much all season, but the talent of the stud rookie triumphed over the obstacles. Ultimately this one crashed and burned because the Giants offense performed far better than anyone had expected them to. Either they woke up or it is time to reevaluate the Panthers defense.
On the Marshawn Lynch prediction, I knew going into it that it was one of my longer shots thus far, but there was some reasonable logic to it. The advanced stats suggested that he has been far better of a back over the last two years than his counting numbers suggest, while he was coming off of his best game in several seasons. The Chargers have been getable on the ground this season, while the Raiders were going to be playing a road game in which they would have more fans in the stands than the home team. Only thing I underestimated was how bad of a team that the Raiders really are, which stunted his chances of seeing a heavy workload in this one. Oh well…
Season-Long Prophetic Percentage: (20%)
Right: 2
Wrong: 8
WEEK 6 BOLD PREDICTIONS
Prediction #1: This is the week that Buccaneers rookie running back Ronald Jones shows up! He was inactive for the first three weeks of the season and then was used sparingly in his first official game in Week 4. In Week 6, Jones will lead the Bucs backfield in touches and will register at least 15 DraftKings points.
Despite his awful preseason and uninspiring regular season debut, coming off of a bye, it would be outlandish if the Bucs didn’t have a plan in place to make their second round pick succeed. Beyond that, this week makes even more sense for Jones to break out, as the Falcons have been pretty awful against the run this season. According to Pro Football Focus, the Falcons grade out as a bottom-three rush defense and are fifth worst in the league in total tackling. Jones could be the spark that this Buccaneers running game has been desperate for since Doug Martin ’s 2015 season; Peyton Barber is just not getting the job done.
Prediction #2: Melvin Gordon will finish as the top fantasy running back for Week 6.
Gordon is probably having his best season to date, and while this isn’t exactly the boldest prediction, Gordon is currently only ranked as the fourth highest back on the DraftKings main slate this week, despite his juicy matchup. According to Pro Football Focus, the Browns shamefully boast the league’s second worst rush defense, while they grade out as the worst tackling team in the league by a longshot at just a 33.7 grade. That’s nearly five full points worse than the next closest team. With how well Gordon is playing this season, I like for him to finish out as the highest scoring back this week and potentially break the 20 carry barrier for the first time this season as well. I don’t even care that he and the Chargers will be playing on the road, in the east coast time zone, during the 1:00 pm slate.
-- If you like what you read, feel free to follow me on twitter (@Nostra_Dom_Us) and make sure to tune in next Wednesday for the newest edition of “The Running Back Workloads.” --