Back on Track
Ahhhhhhhhh….
That was a collective exhale you just heard coming from Le’Veon Bell owners, as he received 39 touches, for 186 total yards, and two touchdowns last Sunday against the Ravens. After sleepwalking through the first few weeks, it appears that the dual-threat back is finally back in regular season form. Chalk up the first month of the season as his preseason considering he skipped it and all of training camp due to a “contract dispute.” My original thought headed into the season was that he’d finish as the fantasy MVP, and despite the scorching start by Kareem Hunt, I still think that Bell has a good shot to finish there.
Speaking of guys figuring things out, Lamar Miller finally had himself a great week in a Texans uniform, while LeGarrette Blount looked like a runaway train for the Eagles. Miller did something that he almost never does, and scored multiple touchdowns this past sunday, while Blount tallied nearly 160 total yards. These are backs to keep an eye on now going forward, as both are known momentum players.
Prepare for Takeoff
So much for a winless season out of the Jets… #SuckForSam What’s that? Here we are, a quarter way through the season, and the Jets have two more wins than the crosstown, winless, Giants – a team whom many considered Super Bowl bound entering the season. Now that it is clear that the Jets intend on being competitive this season, it is time to consider some players on their roster as “fantasy viable” – something that wasn’t on many people’s radar entering the season. With that, you have to begin in the backfield, especially after this past week, when the Jets exploded for 256 team rushing yards against what was considered a good Jaguars defense. Oh yeah, and they did it without their “starter” in Matt Forte. In Bilal Powell and rookie Elijah McGuire alone, the Jets offense was blessed with a whopping 371 total yards on just 37 touches! That’s a shade over 10 yards per touch. Going forward the plan has to be for the Jets to give these two young runners a bigger share of the pie, while veteran Matt Forte begins to take a back seat. For now, Powell is a must own, while McGuire is worth a stash in most formats.
Sorting Through Chaos
By now, a quarter way through the season, most NFL coaches are encountered with what I call “The Three I’s of Backfield Chaos” – Injuries, ineffectiveness, and inspiration. In definition I mean this for each of the three I’s… players getting injured, starters being ineffective, and backups inspiring coaches in oftentimes limited work. Below are teams – and there sure are a bunch of them – that are dealing with some form of the “The Three I’s of Backfield Chaos.” I will attempt to sort through the chaos for your fantasy purposes going forward.
(Notably omitted: New York Jets – because I just explained their situation above; See: “Prepare for Takeoff”)
Eagles – The injury bug in the Eagles backfield was supposed to smack them in the face after the loss of Darren Sproles, but it appears that all it did was further define the roles of LeGarrette Blount and Wendell Smallwood. Smallwood completely took over the passing downs, change of pace, and shotgun reps, while Blount handled the early down duties and closer role down the stretch of the game. In all, without Sproles, the Eagles managed 214 rushing yards, while Blount and Smallwood also picked up the slack in the passing game with a combined five receptions and 65 yards. Going forward, it is best to use both backs and consider their matchups each week. Smallwood will be good in shootout games and contests when the Eagles are underdogs, while Blount will be best used in games in which the Eagles will be looking to establish the run and protect a lead. Corey Clement’s name should also be noted, as he received 10 carries this past Sunday, however I see him as the odd man out in the now dual threat rotation.
Bengals – With a new OC at the helm, clearly rookie Joe Mixon has become more involved and is the guy the Bengals are looking to feature, however the fact of the matter is that Gio Bernard continues to out produce him in the form of big plays and touchdowns. Be that as it may, I am going to request that you stick to Mixon going forward, as his second round billing makes him the Bengals backfield man of the future. With neither Mixon or Bernard producing a whole lot so far this season, feel free to follow the touches, as Mixon has received 42 touches to Bernard’s 11 over the past two weeks. As for Jeremy Hill, it is okay to pretend he doesn’t even exist.
Giants – Has there been a more disappointing team in football so far this season? Along with all of their issues and mishaps so far this young season, first and foremost has to be their lack of a running game. Last week however, signs of life began to emerge, as rookie out of Clemson – Wayne Gallman – began to get some burn. In all, Gallman led the team with 13 touches, and his 50 total yards far out paced that of starting running back Paul Perkins, who finished with a disappointing 19 yards on 10 touches. Sure Gallman didn’t set the world on fire, but this Giants offense needs a change. Gallman is the best they seem to have right now, so he is likely to lead the team in touches going forward until he proves ineffective.
Seahawks – This is probably the toughest backfield to analyze this week, as the loss of Chris Carson leaves behind a huge void in this Seattle offense. My money is going on Eddie Lacy for the Carson role going forward, as when faced with a decision on whom to leave off the roster last week – Lacy or Thomas Rawls – coach Carroll gave Rawls the bad news. On top of this, Lacy was a guy who they seemed to like a lot considering they gave him a nice chunk of change this offseason, while they had every intention of starting him headed into this season as well if it weren’t for the Carson emergence. Finally, when given the opportunity last week, Lacy looked effective and reenergized. He finished last Sunday with 52 yards on 11 carries, which was good enough for over 4.7 yards per touch. While that’s my argument, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that Rawls’ name was rolling off the tongue often during coach Carroll’s postgame presser, as he said “With Chris being banged up, we’re so fortunate to have Thomas ready to jump back out there. We’re just lucky that we have a guy like that who’s ready to go and is healthy and all that.” Rawls is certainly a guy to keep an eye on too. You're also probably wondering, “What about this J.D. McKissic fellow who scored a couple of times last week?” And my answer is this… While he looked explosive, McKissic is nothing more than a C.J. Prosise insurance policy. Prosise should be back healthy this week, which should have McKissic in a reserve role going forward.
Vikings – This one is much easier. Unfortunately, rookie sensation Dalvin Cook tore his ACL last week and will be out for the remainder of the season. Luckily the Vikings signed veteran back Latavius Murray to a decent contract this offseason, making him the de facto starter going forward in this Cook-less Vikings backfield. Don’t be too worried about Jerick McKinnon, as he has been banged up lately. This backfield is Murray’s until further notice.
Buccaneers – With Doug Martin back from suspension this week, he should regain the starting job with ease, as Jacquizz Rodgers didn’t do much to keep it in his stead. As has been the case over the last couple of seasons, Rodgers will serve as Martin’s change of pace, while Charles Sims will see some third down and passing down reps.
Packers – What a muddled mess they have in Green Bay, as both the starter Ty Montgomery and the backup Jamaal Williams got hurt last week. Aaron Jones is the next man up and seemed to do a solid job last week in relief. Considering the fact that Montgomery has multiple broken ribs, and that Williams just missed a “serious knee injury,” I’m going to put my money on Jones this week against a Dallas defense that just got shredded by Todd Gurley last weekend. Going beyond that though, the state of this Packers backfield rests on the rib health of Montgomery. He should regain the starting job once fully healthy again.
Ravens – The state of the Ravens backfield has changed several times already this season, as Terrance West and Javorius Allen have gone back and forth as the “hot hand.” Currently though, there is no disputing the fact that Alex Collins – a Seattle trash heap waiver claim – has been their most effective runner over the last two weeks. To be specific, Collins has racked up 164 rushing yards on only 18 attempts over the last two weeks, a total good enough for a whopping 9.1 yards per carry average! Compare that to Allen’s ineffective 3.5 ypc this season and to West’s mere 20 total touches since his 19 total in Week 1 alone. In terms of production, clearly Collins is the guy who I like the best going forward. Having said that however, he has to get his fumbling issue in check. The coaching staff has gone on record saying that he is on thin ice in terms of turning the ball over. A trend to further support this Alex Collins band wagon is Buck Allen’s usage rate across the season... Since peaking at 21 total touches in Week 1, Allen has seen his touches decrease in each subsequent week… 21 (Week 1), 19 (Week 2), 13 (Week 3), 8 (Week 4).
Saints – Rookie Alvin Kamara is the only Saints player with a rushing touchdown this season. Rookie Alvin Kamara is leading the Saints in yards per carry at 5.5. Rookie Alvin Kamara is second on the team in receptions (20), receiving yards (147), and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (1). Rookie Alvin Kamara has easily turned into the Saints most productive running back.
NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 4 Recap
Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish the DFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.
So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.
* Week 4 RB Predictions *
Elite Plays
Zeke had an excellent game this past Sunday (despite the unfortunate outcome for the Cowboys), as he racked up 139 total yards and two scores on 25 total touches. He was my play of the week and proved to be pretty damn close to that. Your welcome there.
Going into the week, this looked like a gimme pick based off of how well Hunt has been playing so far this season, but after the first half on Monday night, he was infringing on bust territory. In the end though, the rookie finished with over 100 yards rushing and four receptions for 20 yards, which was more than serviceable in any format.
Affordable Plays
I don’t really care what you say. Freeman’s 60 rushing yards, two receptions, and rushing touchdown got me through my profit threshold this week, so I’m chalking up this selection as a win for NostraDomUs.
Just a pure whiff here and I’m sorry to have burned you with Ajayi for two weeks in a row now… While I won’t list him for this upcoming week, I’d be lying if I told you that I wasn’t thinking about grabbing a few shares of J-Train against the Titans at home though. A pure GPP play at a discounted price gives me hope for third time's a charm.
This one really stings because Cook was well on his way to a great game prior to the injury (74 total yards, 1 TD). For our purposes here, note that this was still a successful DFS play because of the production that Cook had in just one half of play, but had he stayed on the field for the whole game, this could have been a home run pick.
Bargain Plays
I was looking for a momentum play here and the Chiefs killed it. Thompson seemed to be the back that the Redskins were going to rely upon going forward, but after the Chiefs made it a point to stop the run exclusively, the Redskins were forced to pass. Instead of Thompson, guys like Pryor and Davis were used in the passing game, while Kirk Cousins turned into the Skins most effective runner.
Like Dalvin Cook, Carson was another guy who was on his way to a nice game prior to being seriously injured. Unlike Cook however, Carson didn’t rack up enough fantasy points prior to the injury to be deemed a successful fantasy pick.
Cohen was solid, but he just didn’t get enough burn to make a huge fantasy impact. Can I also say that it’s getting real annoying every week watching him rip off huge gains for them only to be called back for holding. The Bears offensive line has to get it together before fantasy owners start rioting.
Flyer Plays
For the fourth consecutive week, Charles was very effective when given the ball (6.6 yards per carry and 7.8 yards per touch), but once again the Broncos were fearful to give him double-digit touches, which completely hamstrung his fantasy value. I hate to say I was wrong about this one because of Charles’ continued per touch efficiency, but I digress...
I seem to have at least one every week... Blount was a home run flyer selection here! At near minimum pricing, the hulking tailback racked up 156 total yards on only 17 touches on the road against the Chargers. Anyone who took a GPP flyer on Blount last week likely cashed out because of the incredible savings and excellent production.
** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **
Right: (23) Wrong: (19)
Prophetic Percentage: (54%)