Changing The Narrative?

It is no secret that historically, these weekly Thursday night games have been hot garbage. Those of you who are unfamiliar with the Thursday night slate over the last few years; rather than making me flesh out the numbers here, I just implore you to take my word for it. Expectations for this past Thursday night’s matchup were no different, as the historically inept Rams taking on a recently awful 49ers team inspired little confidence in potential viewership for the NFL Network’s primetime event. Having said all of that, can I also just say that I was blissfully dead wrong? The 41-38 shootout that was displayed by these two NFC West rivals was nothing short of enthralling. A big part of that captivation was through the way that both teams ran the football, which makes this discussion now relevant for our purposes.

Both Todd Gurley and Carlos Hyde put on a fantasy show, as between the two of them, they tallied five total touchdowns and 253 total yards. Gurley, while he ended up with three of the five touchdowns, had a shot to score five on his own with the amount of goal line touches that he received. Hyde also inspired fantasy owners by battling back in the game for nearly 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns after suffering an early game injury that looked possible to keep him out for the rest of the contest. Two important things have emerged out of this exciting game to take note of going forward. First, both Gurley and Hyde – two backs coming off of terrible 2016 seasons and had a lot to prove early on in this season – showed that they are going to bounce back in a major way in 2017. Secondly, maybe it is time to give Thursday Night Football another shot. The Bears and Packers certainly have a lot to live up to tomorrow night.

Your Weekly Dose of a Historic Rookie Season

401 rushing yards, 137 receiving yards, six total touchdowns, 8.5 yards per carry, three games played. Kareem Hunt is doing things that no other player in NFL history has ever done before, let alone just amongst rookies. I don’t think I need to waste any more time on this going forward, just understand that he’s really good and is a player who is here to stay.

Pass Catching Backs

If Deone Buchanan’s proven ability to play linebacker, safety, and slot corner last year or Khalil Mack being named All-Pro at both defensive end and linebacker in the season prior wasn’t enough of a signal, trust me when I tell you that this league is becoming more and more positionless. Within that, no more are the lines being blurred than at the skill positions, as you now have “tight ends” that can’t block and instead play in the slot, “wide receivers” that receive several carries per game, and “running backs” who lead their teams in receptions. It has come to the point that in 2016 “wide receiver” Tyreek Hill rushed for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns, while the Packers starting “running back” wore number 88. To stick with running backs (obviously), did you know that this past week, of the top-10 scorers (PPR) at the position, seven of them had at least five receptions? Did you also know that of that same top-10, four of them had less than 70 rushing yards and five of them had less than 20 carries? As we have seen throughout the league over the last few seasons, the game is changing. The lines are more and more blurring on what constitutes a position. Teams are less interested on labeling their skill guys, and are more interested in getting the ball in their hands by any means necessary. When looking at matchups for the running back position, it is no longer acceptable to just analyze an offensive line, a rush defense, and the rushing statistics of a particular player. A defense’s ability to cover in the flats is more important than ever. Looking up the receiving numbers that opposing defenses allow on average to running backs is also equally as important to all of the other factors I listed above. Just as the game has changed, so too has fantasy football. Improvise, adapt, and overcome.

Eating Crow

While I love to pat myself on the back so often in this weekly piece, I also must admit when I whiff. So here I am, putting myself out there, apologizing for so heavily recommending Derrick Henry last week in my articles and during our Sunday morning chats prior to kickoff. I will get into this more further down the page, but essentially I was sold on Derrick Henry not only out producing the banged up DeMarco Murray for the second consecutive week, but I further believed that this would be the beginning of Henry’s ascent to the starting role for good, while this would be the beginning of the end for Murray’s career. Four quarters later… Murray ended up with 115 yards on 8.2 yards per carry and Henry ended up on the injury report. I really went out on a limb for a hot take –not something that I love to do – and I swung and missed. The way I look at it though… Hey, even Babe Ruth used to strike out too.

Guys to keep an eye on…

It’s usually around this time of year when injuries begin to mount – especially in backfields – and previously unknown or undervalued players begin to breakout. Below I’m just going to give you a few names to keep an eye on that you may be able to pick up in your season long formats. Some are deep sleepers, and some you may already know…

Chris Thompson, WAS – I know, I’m starting off with an obvious one, but if he hasn’t been picked up in your league yet, put a claim in now… This will be his last week on the wire. Mark my words.

Alex Collins, BAL – Collins is an interesting name because while the Ravens could do absolutely nothing this past Sunday morning against the Jags in London, Collins actually showed out. In all, he rushed for 82 yards on nine carries, while picking up three of the Ravens mere 12 total first downs. While he just came over from Seattle and was only promoted to the Ravens active roster two weeks ago, Collins seems to be in line for far more carries. The fact of the matter is that he looked explosive and confident, while the Ravens other two runners have looked anything but over the last couple of weeks. Consider this one of my deeper sleeper picks, but a name to definitely keep an eye on going forward.

Joe Mixon, CIN – With a new OC in town, it looks like the RB by committee approach is going to be turned down a few notches. The Bengals took Mixon in the second round this past offseason and with a higher volume of touches, he will quickly prove that he is the most talented back on this roster. If anyone punted early on the Mixon experiment in your league, run to the wire and pick him up now.

D’Onta Foreman, HOU – Although it’s only Week 4 now, it is safe to say that Lamar Miller’s grasp on his unquestioned feature back roll has slipped. Foreman proved last week through his 65 receiving yards that he is more than just a goal line bruiser and deserves more reps. This would be a different story if Lamar Miller gave the Texans anything this season, but the fact of the matter is that he hasn’t. 3.7 yards per carry, zero touchdowns, and only six receptions are not going to get it done through three weeks. Foreman, his massive frame, and bruising running style may end up working out better behind this Texans offensive line that doesn’t create a lot of running lanes. 

Jamaal Charles, DEN – Last week, while C.J. Anderson was rendered largely ineffective, Charles turned back the clock by registering over 6.2 yards per carry and a touchdown. This marks the third consecutive week that he saw at least nine carries, tallied over 40 rushing yards, and maintained a yards per carry average over 4.0. Clearly the work is there for Charles and he seems to be comfortable operating in this Broncos offense. If he can continue getting into the end zone like he did last week, he may turn into a more than viable fantasy option.

Corey Clement, PHI – Clement got into the end zone last week and may be a deep sleeper candidate to pick up some extra work now with the injuries to Darren Sproles. This is not one that I’m heavily invested in, but like the title says… He’s a guy to keep an eye on.

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 3 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish the DFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 3 RB Predictions *

Elite Plays

Kareem Hunt, KC – As expected, the magical rookie season continued for Hunt in Week 3, as he absolutely thrashed this woeful Chargers defense to the tune of 172 rushing yards and a touchdown. An easy pick, I know, but Wayne Gretzky once said (as did Michael Scott) that “you miss 100-percent of the shots you don’t take.”

Jay Ajayi, MIA – I’m sitting here, staring at a blank paragraph, trying to come up with a response as to what happened in MetLife on Sunday… I really have nothing at this point. Ajayi’s horrendous showing against the Jets is as close to inexplicable as it gets. While I missed on this one, at least I’m not alone, as J-Train was on almost every expert’s list of top running back options this past week.

Affordable Plays

Todd Gurley, LAR – Gurley took home the top scorer of the week honors, and I am happy to have clued you in before hand. Much of this pick was based off of matchup, as he and the Rams took on an historically bad Niners rush defense, but don’t be shocked if Gurley’s overall resurgence this season is for real. Only thing keeping me up this past weekend was thinking about how he could have ended up with five touchdowns instead of three, as he received two further possessions inside the two-yard line, but was stuffed. I’m just getting greedy, I know.

Devonta Freeman, ATL – I mentioned Freeman’s jarring turf vs. grass splits in my DFS RB picks last Wednesday, and sure enough they held true once again this past Sunday, as Freeman posted over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown inside the dome at Ford Field in Detroit. If you are looking forward to this weekend, Freeman will be playing on turf again at home against a Buffalo defense that is sure to let down after an emotional home win against the Broncos this past Sunday.

Bargain Plays

Isaiah Crowell, CLE – I didn’t expect huge things from Crowell, but I liked the matchup and I’m a fan of his talent. Despite all of that, the play of Crowell didn’t really work out, as while he posted a solid 44 rushing yards, his mere 3.6 yards per carry didn’t produce an effective result. His lack of touchdowns killed me too…

Derrick Henry, TEN – As I explained earlier, I was very high on Henry this past week and it blew up in my face. I was sold that his great game in Week 2 was going to carry over into his matchup with the Seahawks – a team that had just given up a ton of yards to Carlos Hyde the week before. I was also sold that DeMarco Murray wouldn’t be much of a factor due to his injury status, and that too blew up in my face. Murray broke out for a huge game, while Henry finished the game on the injury report. Go figure…

Frank Gore, IND – This is one that I’m pretty proud of because I made it clear what I was looking for out of Gore and his more than affordable price tag. I asked for 50+ rushing yards and a touchdown… Gore delivered 57 yards and one touchdown. Mission accomplished.

Chris Thompson, WAS – Thompson was my home run pick of the week, as he finished with over 30 PPR points, despite only carrying a DraftKings price tag of $4,500. For all of the reasons I mentioned last week – the Raiders bad defense, Rob Kelley’s injury, Thompson’s upward momentum from the previous two weeks, etc. – Thompson’s coming out party on Sunday Night Football just made sense to me.

Flyer Plays

Chris Johnson, ARI – This was a whiff pick, as Johnson failed to even record 20 rushing yards against the Cowboys suddenly stout ground defense. I was right however, that Johnson would take over as the Cardinals lead back, as he out touched and out repped both Andre Ellington and Kerwin Williams.

Samaje Perine, WAS – I received some backlash for liking both Perine and Thompson this week, but both did end making an impact. While Thompson exploded, Perine received the bulk of the touches – 20 to be exact. Unfortunately for those who took this flyer advice, Perine didn’t do much with his high usage rate. Instead he only racked up 55 total yards and zero touchdowns.

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right: (17) Wrong: (14)

Prophetic Percentage: (55%)