Hunt or be Hunted

Cheesy title I know, but the phrase may end up holding true this season when you think about it… You either had Hunt last week, or you lost to the guy who did. With three total touchdowns, 246 total yards, and 23 touches Kareem Hunt absolutely dismantled the Patriots defense – a defense that most believed would be one of the league’s better options this season – in the Thursday night opener. With David Johnson out for the foreseeable future, Le’Veon Bell looking sluggish, and a league driven agenda against Zeke, there is a chance that Kareem Hunt can finish as the number one fantasy back this season. He has little competition, and more talent than anyone could have imagined. There is probably no chance he is on your league’s waiver wire, but if he is, do whatever you can to claim him.

Love him or hate him… Zeke is still gonna eat

I guess it’s easy for me as a Cowboys fan to say this, but I really hope you weren’t the guy who stubbornly abstained from drafting Zeke this season because you “don’t like him” or because you believed that he wasn’t going to get the courts to see how unjust his appeal hearing was. I say this because in fantasy football a lot of times you have to swallow your pride and play the players who are going to produce the most. The fact that Elliott was going in the third round or latter in many drafts, even after the news broke that he would be good to go for Week 1, baffles me because whether you love him or hate him, Zeke is still gonna eat. He proved this on Sunday night, as he ate alive a really good Giants defense to the tune of 104 yards rushing and five receptions for an additional 36 yards. So long as he remains on the field, Elliott will be a top-five fantasy running back. It’s that simple. The Cowboys line is too good, and Elliott is too dynamic.

"The Human Joystick"

Raise your hand if you had Tarik Cohen as the number two scoring fantasy running back for Week 1... Anyone? Anyone?  Bueller? While no one predicted his massive NFL debut, I am proud to say that I had him ranked rather highly in my weekly rankings and listed him as my top "flyer play" in DFS (more on that later). Enough of my patting myself on the back though, as it is now time to figure out what his production means for season-long fantasy players... Ultimately, my prognosis is that you should rush to the waiver wires to pick Cohen up by any means necessary. Sure, on the surface he is an incredibly slight 5-foot-6, 179 lbs., but after seeing what he could do in his NFL debut, it makes sense why his college teammates dubbed him "The Human Joystick." Outside of his talent and unique skillset, maybe most importantly of all, it appears that his reps, touches, and subsequently his production will be there for the long haul going forward. After the Kevin White, Benny Cunningham, and Cameron Meredith injuries, the Bears have very few playmakers left. Cohen has no competition for third down reps going forward, and I have a sneaky feeling that when 2017 all is said and done he will lead the team in total targets in the passing game. While Jordan Howard will remain the starting running back for Chicago, there is no doubt in my mind that Cohen will be a huge factor in the fantasy picture come season's end.

Only four players received over 20 carries in Week 1… And one of them was Buck Allen?

You read that right... Buck Allen managed 21 carries this past Sunday, and while this may be a product of the Ravens shutting out the Bengals, I also see it as part of a larger picture. The fact of the matter is that while Danny Woodhead -- when healthy, of course -- is the pass catcher, and Terrance West is the between-the-tackles guy, Allen has the skillset of both guys in one. If neither West or Woodhead can establish their presence early on this season, there is a shot that Allen can win this job outright before the cold weather rolls around. If you are looking for more, also keep in mind that Allen is the only of the three to be drafted by the Ravens. He is really the guy who they want to succeed, and it showed in his high volume of touches in Week 1. Consider Allen as one of the sneakier and better long-term waiver additions this week.

"Are You Ready For Some Football??!!"

This past Monday night double-header was filled with intriguing backfield storylines, for example: Adrian Peterson's debut with the Saints and return to Minnesota, Jamaal Charles' debut with the Broncos, and Melvin Gordon's return from his knee and hip injuries that kept him out for the final month of last season, however none were as intriguing, nor did they deliver on the intrigue like Dalvin Cook did in his NFL debut. In all, Cook rushed for 127 yards -- breaking Adrian Peterson's team record for an NFL debut -- while his game icing 33-yard rush late in the fourth quarter all but made the Minnesota coaching staff forget that Latavius Murray is even on the roster. Cook confirmed his hype on Monday night, and established himself as a legitimate threat to finish in the top-10 at the running back position this fantasy season.

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 1 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish the DFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 1 RB Predictions *

Elite Plays

Le’Veon Bell, PIT – I was high on Bell for a variety of obvious reasons, but unfortunately this one didn't pan out. He was downright awful in all formats and provided a negative return investment considering his elite price tag. Rust could have played the biggest role, but also we should give it up to the Cleveland defense. They made it clear that Bell wasn't going to be the one to beat them; something that showed up in spades in regards to Antonio Brown's contrarily explosive production.

LeSean McCoy, BUF – Knocked this one out of the park and was correct in saying that I liked him much more than Bell and Johnson in regards to the elite priced backs. He eclipsed the 100-yard mark and proved to be a great GPP play considering his reasonable ownership percentages.

Affordable Plays

Todd Gurley, LAR – Gurley got into the end zone and finished four total yards shy of 100 for the day. He not only was handed the ball 19 times on Sunday, but the narrative that I have been pushing all offseason – the fact that the Rams were going to get him more involved in the passing game – held true, as he received five passes for a total of 56 yards. Considering his affordable price tag in all formats, I would say that this was a successful prediction for NostraDomUs.  

Christian McCaffrey, CAR – I'm gonna give this pick a C+ because while McCaffrey didn't go off as I expected him to, he was the most involved player in the Panthers offense – contrary to many people's expectations – and he posted nearly 20 points on DraftKings. Going forward, it appears that McCaffrey is going to continue to be a massive part of the Panthers offensive game plan, and don't be surprised if he ends up with the most touches on the team come season's end.

Dalvin Cook, MIN – What a night it was for the first year man out of Florida State, as Cook set the Vikings NFL debut rookie rushing record (127 yards), breaking Adrian Peterson’s 2007 mark of 103 yards. I mentioned that his talent was immense and that his matchup was more than favorable, which usually makes for a slam-dunk fantasy pick, especially when his expected ownership was low.

Bargain Plays

Carlos Hyde, SF – Hyde was priced in the bargain bin and ended up pumping out RB2 numbers. While it wasn’t pretty, for all of the reasons I mentioned – mainly volume and lack of competition – Hyde got the job done and returned positive value on a low risk investment. That is what this game is all about.

Frank Gore, IND – Gore was another volume play at a low price and this one didn’t end up paying out. He struggled to register 50 yards, scored zero touchdowns, and most surprisingly only saw 11 touches. This is something to keep an eye on, as rookie Marlon Mack did manage to get into the end zone in his NFL debut.

Flyer Plays

Tarik Cohen, CHI – It always feels great to hit a home run on a shot-in-the-dark pick, and it feels even greater when you do it in Week 1, so excuse me while I pat myself on the back for a minute here... I’m probably one of the only fantasy pundits to have Cohen on their DFS sheet, and boy did it pay off. Not only was he minimum priced on DraftKings, but also on top of that his ownership was at a microscopic 0.2%. Unless you were hungover for all of Sunday, you probably know that Cohen finished as the second overall fantasy RB for the week, making him one of the best single game fantasy values that I can remember. This was one of my all time best predictions, and admittedly it will be a tough one to top going forward.

Jamaal Charles, DEN – Charles was okay, but two things worked against him here…1) C.J. Anderson played pretty well, and 2) he fumbled in the fourth quarter which didn’t bode well for him in the rest of the game and it doesn’t bode well for the coaching staff’s trust in him going forward. Overall though, Charles returned a slightly positive value considering his low price tag and 40 rushing yards, but this is not the debut I expected from him, especially in the receiving department.

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right: (6) Wrong: (3)

Prophetic Percentage: (67%)