Denver Broncos

Coming off of their Super Bowl victory, the Broncos remained solid in 2016, however finished third in the division and missed the playoffs with a 9-7 record. Their defense remained elite, while their skill position players continued to do their part as well, but the main issue in life after Peyton Manning became the passing game, as Trevor Siemian struggled mightly to produce, along with the offensive line that was supposed to protect him. Much of the same roster remains in place, but not without put up or shut up expectations from management. Expect a more motivated bunch this season, which should only spell more fantasy success from their players in 2017.

Fantasy MVP: Demaryius Thomas

To find a more consistent receiver than Thomas over the last five years is a tall order… Since 2012 Thomas has recorded at least 1,000 yards, five touchdowns, 12.0 yards per reception, 140 targets, and 90 catches. And while there are names like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and A.J. Green, who’s numbers are right there with him, it makes one wonder why his name isn’t mentioned in the same breath as them in regards to fantasy ranking and overall talent. Likely Thomas is overlooked because his quarterback situation is so bad, but looking back to last year with Trevor Siemian at the helm, Thomas still astonishingly managed 90 receptions, nearly 1,100 yards, and five touchdowns. With either Siemian getting another year of starting experience under his belt, or the more talented Paxton Lynch takes over the team’s starting quarterback gig, there is no reason to expect that Thomas’ numbers can’t be even better in 2017.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Carlos Henderson

Henderson may have just undergone thumb surgery, but word is that he will still be expected back for the first game of the season. Considering this, Henderson is a rookie to keep an eye on because out of the slot, he can cause some serious mismatches right away. In his junior year of college, Henderson served as one of the nation’s most dangerous deep threats, as well as a matchup nightmare out of the slot. At the end of the day, he ended up leading the nation in touchdowns, finished fifth in yards, and maintained a top-20 spot in total receptions. Joining an offense that can use some extra explosion out of the slot, Henderson has a chance to provide an excellent third option for whomever ends up quarterbacking this Broncos offense.

Most Improved Fantasy Player: C.J. Anderson

His season may have ended prematurely due to injury in 2017, and he may now have stiffer competition at the position, but with a much-improved offensive line and another year of starting confidence from the coaching staff, I believe that Anderson has a good shot at registering his first career 1,000-yard season. Going any further than that statement makes me uncomfortable, so I’ll just leave it at the fact that an improved offensive line makes any running back better. It would be shocking to see Anderson do worse than his 437 rushing yards in seven games played, so based off of that logic, he would have to technically vastly improve in order to live up to even the most mediocre of expectations.

Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Trevor Siemian

Siemian was pedestrian at best last season and this preseason is not making the case for him any more infallible, so to assume that he is a lock for a full 16 starts in 2017 is a bit wishful. In reality, the Broncos would actually like their former first round pick – Paxton Lynch – to go out and win this job, but for now it doesn’t appear that he will. Let’s face it, If the Broncos are successful this season, it will not be on the strength of Siemian’s right arm, rather it will be through a combination of elite defense and an improved running game. If they do end up struggling this season and end up falling out of contention, you’d better believe that the coaching staff will be quick with the trigger finger to put young Mr. Lynch behind the wheel. Basically I’m saying that Siemian’s fantasy prospects are damned if he does well and damned if he doesn’t. This is not a player I plan on buying any stock of headed towards the regular season.

 

Kansas City Chiefs

Quietly, the Chiefs have been one of the league’s elite mainstays over the last few years, maintaining a 43-21 record since the 2013 season. 2016 was their best of these last few excellent seasons, as they finished with a 12-4 record and captured the division crown. Led by their defense, the Chiefs attempt to play a game of field position in order to pick up victories, however that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some fantasy gems on the roster…

Fantasy MVP: Travis Kelce  

In Kelce, you are looking at the focal point of the Chiefs offense – an inline, true tight end, who can get open over the middle, down the seam, and towards the boundary. In his three healthy seasons, Kelce has improved his statistical production consecutively in each year. After registering his first 1,000-yard season in 2016, the expectation is that his reception and touchdown numbers are to follow in terms of massive statistical boost. With the emergence of Tyreek Hill as a deep threat, the middle of the field should be even more wide open for Kelce to operate, while Kelce should as well still remain the Chiefs biggest red zone weapon. Entering his prime at age 27, Kelce is primed for a breakout 2017 to say the least.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kareem Hunt

While he played at Toledo – a school with minimal exposure – Hunt managed to rack up enough collegiate production that scouts couldn’t ignore him. As a senior, Hunt tallied over 1,800 scrimmage yards with 11 touchdowns, giving him impressive career totals to say the least (855 touches, 5,500 yards, 45 TD’s). At 6-foot, 225 lbs. Hunt brings a legitimate frame to go along with his impressive college numbers, which is understandably putting a lot of pressure on incumbent starting back Spencer Ware. Based off of a lot of reports coming out of training camp, Hunt is already getting some first team reps, which makes him a no brainer for the Chiefs fantasy rookie of the year. Don’t be surprised if he ends up stealing the starting job sooner rather than later, making him a must own in all fantasy formats.

Most Improved Fantasy Player: Tyreek Hill

To say that Hill burst onto the NFL scene last season is an understatement, as he quickly took the crown as the league’s most explosive player. He contributed significantly as a wide receiver, return man, and running back, racking up six receiving touchdowns, three return touchdowns, and three rushing touchdowns, proving that truly any time he touched the ball he was a threat to take it to the house. After proving invaluable to the Chiefs cause in 2016, Hill has been promoted to their number one receiver in 2017, giving potential fantasy owners butterflies. To me, all this means is that now he will be on the field even more and thus will be given even more opportunities to score touchdowns in a variety of ways. These are all good things for fantasy owners.

Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Spencer Ware

As I mentioned the emergence of Kareem Hunt above, it is only logical that Spencer Ware then would have to underwhelm this season. He is being drafted as a bell cow back, while in reality it appears that he will split first team touches at best. He’s a proper candidate for fantasy disappointment here.

 

Los Angeles Chargers

2016 was yet another disappointing season for the Chargers, however their 5-11 record may be more deceiving than it looks considering they lost by double-digits just three times and lost by three points or less five times. Statistics like that give me hope that they are closer to contending than people think, which is a good sign for prospective fantasy owners. Offensively, the Chargers are loaded with talent top to bottom and arguably got more explosive by the return of Keenan Allen and through the addition of rookie Mike Williams. I’m not saying to go take out a bet, but don’t be surprised if the Chargers contend for the wild card in 2017.

Fantasy MVP: Melvin Gordon

Gordon is by no means my favorite back in the league, but he’s the unquestioned starter for the Chargers and provided excellent fantasy production last season. Considering this, logic would tell you that he is poised to have another productive campaign in 2017, especially being that he’s only 24 years old. Philip Rivers was considered here as well, but being a running back with guaranteed high-volume touches gave Gordon the edge.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Mike Williams

I have noted that Williams is likely to be out until October at the earliest and that his history of both neck and back problems are nothing to ignore, however with all of this considered, Williams still projects to be the Chargers best fantasy rookie in 2017. He’s tall, athletic, and crazy productive when healthy. Provided he can be injury free come October, I still believe that he will have a place in this Chargers aerial attack.

Most Improved Fantasy Player: Keenan Allen

Another player with horrific injury luck, Allen is looking to return healthy in 2017 after missing 23 games over the last two seasons. Word out of camp is that he’s never looked better, and who are we to take any objection to that. Without any rumors of a setback, Allen should return to this Chargers offense as the same old high-volume target, which should do wonders for those participating in PPR leagues.

Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Antonio Gates

The future hall of famer is 37 years old now and has seen his numbers plummet over the last two seasons. Beyond Father Time catching up to him, Gates also has young and hungry Hunter Henry breathing down his neck, looking to take his job. As of now, the Chargers plan on running a lot of two tight end sets, but don’t be surprised if Henry slowly takes over the starting job completely, rendering Gates as an ineffective fantasy option by the latter weeks of the season.

 

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders took the league by storm last season, finishing the season with an impressive 12-4 record. Led by Derek Carr, Oakland featured one of the league’s most deadly aerial attacks, while their adequate ground game led by Latavius Murray made them almost undefendable. If it weren’t for Carr’s unfortunate leg injury that kept him out of the playoffs, the Patriots may have had a much harder time getting to yet another Super Bowl. Headed into 2017, the Raiders are looking to take care of some unfinished business. Led by a new running back – Marshawn Lynch – and a retooled defense, Oakland may actually have an even better roster than they did in 2016, which should be a scary thought for the rest of the league and a lovely thought for fantasy owners.

Fantasy MVP: Derek Carr

Here’s a player who has done nothing but get better in each of his first three years in the league. He has seen statistical improvements consecutively for three years in passing yards, completion percentage, yards per attempt, quarterback rating, passer rating, interceptions, and completions. Assuming anything different would happen for him now entering his prime with arguably his best roster yet would be counterintuitive. He’s a year removed from leading his team to a 12-4 record, while he nearly won the league MVP. Don’t overthink this one fantasy owners… Move along now.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Obi Melifonwu

The Raiders have no offensive rookies that intrigue me, thus you are saddled with another potential IDP darling here. Sure I ragged on Obi during the draft process, but that is because I believed that he would be over drafted due to his gaudy combine numbers. What that doesn’t mean is that I don’t see fantasy potential in him, because the reality is that his size, speed, power combo could prove deadly in several statistical categories. Melifonwu has experience playing both corner and safety, which is check mark number one for a high-volume IDP star – Availability. Chances are that even as a rookie, Melifonwu is going to be on the field a lot as either a safety, corner, slot cover man, nickel defender, or even as a dime linebacker. The most important takeaway here is that he will have a lot of chances to register statistics (or points for our purposes). With Obi’s size, speed, and raw talent, opportunities are all that he needs to make a serious impact in IDP fantasy leagues.

Most Improved Fantasy Player: Amari Cooper

To say that a receiver who has reached at least 70 catches, 1,000 yards, and five touchdowns in each of his first two seasons has underperformed is quite an accusation, however wouldn't we all be lying if we didn't admit that Amari Cooper – the former fourth overall pick – has been slightly underwhelming thus far into his NFL career considering his talent and the talent surrounding him? Well, luckily for our guilt here, I believe this is the season that Cooper reaches at least 85 catches, 1,200 yards, and 10 touchdowns. 

Reason #1:wide receivers typically enter their prime in their third NFL season.

I don't have enough space here to get into it, but if you don't believe me, just google "third year wide receivers" there are countless articles written about it.

Reason #2: Derek Carr

I explained in length above, but understand that Carr should only continue to get better as he has in each of his last three seasons. Not only is Carr improving, but also he is doing it with Cooper as the guy who he knows is going to be his number one target for the next decade. With yet another offseason of one on one workouts together, Cooper and Carr should have an improved understanding of what the other is thinking on the field, which should spell even more fantasy success going forward. It’s not crazy to think that they have a chance to develop a Peyton Manning/Marvin Harrison type rapport.

Reason #3: Michael Crabtree

Sure, Crabtree has done a great job showing Cooper the ropes in this league, and an even better job of scaring away double-teams, but in reality he also has been the biggest reason that Cooper has yet to develop into a bona fide WR1 in fantasy leagues. By the time the season kicks off however, Crabtree will be 30 years old, leaving fantasy owners the reality that his best years are behind him. Show me a receiver guy who has vastly improved into his 30’s and I’ll show you the other 90-percent of guys who have not. This really seems like the year that Cooper will take over as the Raiders number one wideout, while Crabtree is slotted to take over as a very capable number two.

Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Marshawn Lynch

I’m here to say that I’m not as bullish on Beast Mode as most of you are. Look, I believe that he has a shot at 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns simply due to lack of competition and because of the quality of the Raiders offensive line, but to just assume that the guy is going to return to his old form is a bit cavalier on the part of fantasy forecasters. The reality is that Lynch 31 years old now and running backs rarely are successful after the age of 29. According to his 2015 season numbers in fact, it looked like Lynch was finished during his age 29 season as he sunk below 4.0 yards per carry, below 60 yards per game, and only registered three rushing touchdowns before his season was ended premature due to injury just seven games into the year. Like I said, he can still be a solid back because of his circumstances, but thinking you are going to be getting the guy who carried the Seahawks offense for all of those years is to set yourself for disappointment.