Rapid Reactions

Considering the nature of the turnaround of this article, much of what I’m saying comes from the same amount of time you have had to watch the games each week. Published on Tuesday, the Running Back Workload is only hours removed from Monday Night Football, and day removed from Sunday. I’m often analyzing the red zone channel like Sherlock Holmes trying to get an advantage, and while it is helpful, I will also use this section to get my thoughts on the page. Here are my top-five rapid reactions from the Week 7 NFL running back climate…

1) J-Train Keeps Rollin’…

This guy is as good as I have tried to advertise. Jay Ajayi – after another historic performance on Sunday – became only the fourth player in NFL history to rush for over 200 yards in consecutive weeks. His company? Ricky Williams, Earl Campbell, and O.J. Simpson – essentially Ajayi and three Hall of Fame level talents. In Week 7, his performance was particularly impressive considering 128 of his 214 yards came after contact. He’s currently leading the league in yards after contact per carry with an astounding 4.11 yards on average, while maybe most impressively on Sunday he broke a whopping 10 tackles, which according to Pro Football Focus is only three less than rookie sensation Ezekiel Elliott has on the entire season so far.

While I’m not trying to convince you that Ajayi will keep posting 200-plus yard games week after week, I would like everyone to finally acknowledge that he is here to stay. If J-Train’s competition Arian Foster could take a hint towards the matter (retired on Monday) then so should the rest of the fantasy pundits. And if his record-setting back-to-back games aren’t enough evidence of his talent and staying power, then check back in Week 9, as he and the Dolphins will be taking on the Jets and their second ranked rush defense.

2) The Melvin Gordon Paradox

I wrote a few paragraphs after Week 2 giving credit to Melvin Gordon and his improved overall polish as an NFL running back. This was coming off of a game in which he ran for 102 yards, and notched his third touchdown of the season – this is following a rookie year in which he was completely shutout of the end zone, so you can understand my slightly overzealous response. Even so though, at the time, Gordon was averaging a respectable 4.2 yards per carry and seemed to be the only good thing going on an otherwise – at the time – underwhelming Chargers offense. As the season has wore on, Gordon has seemingly slipped back to his old ways, to the point that he is now averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per carry on the season and is on pace to only barely crack the 1,000 yard barrier despite having zero competition for touches out of the backfield. With just this information, to say that he has been a disappointment is a blatant understatement. However the problem with just looking at these numbers is that it only tells half the story…

Fantasy owners may not want to look now, but Gordon is – against all odds – on pace for 23 total touchdowns this season. Thus in lies the paradox.

How is it possible to trust a guy who is so badly struggling to gain yards consistently, yet how is it possible not to trust a guy who already has 10 total touchdowns through eight games this season?

You want my opinion? Of course you do because otherwise you wouldn’t be reading this…

I think that while talented in certain regards (speed and newfound power combo), this season Gordon’s touchdown explosion is a product of circumstance just the same as his zero touchdowns were last season. Allow me to explain.

As I have already clued you in on, Gordon is not ripping off long runs, as is evidenced by his mere 3.3 yards per carry. This means that his touchdowns are mostly coming on short yardage situations. Last season, Gordon also struggled mightily to gain consistent yardage (3.5 yards per carry), yet he scored zero touchdowns. The question now becomes why is he getting short yardage looks this season where he was not last year? And this is where the “circumstance” comes into play.

Last season Gordon had backfield competition and last season Philip Rivers had better red zone receivers. In 2015, the Chargers would rather give the ball to Danny Woodhead, who had proven to be a more consistent backfield option as was evidenced by his nine total touchdowns and 6.2 yards per touch, or they would rather throw the ball to any of their bigger receiving targets in Antonio Gates, Ladarius Green, or Keenan Allen. This season Woodhead is out for the year, Allen is out for the year, Green is no longer with the team, and Gates has been bothered by a hamstring injury that has rendered him either ineffective or inactive for almost the entire season. That’s 22 touchdowns that have disappeared from last season to this. By default, someone was obligated pick up the slack. Considering that, it is inarguable that Gordon is the most talented, yet available, player left on this Chargers roster. It just makes sense that he would see a tremendous spike in touchdown production, especially coming off of a season in which he scored none.

Personally I would advocate selling high on him now because he isn’t likely to see an uptick in touchdowns, while I see those numbers going down in fact now with the healthy return of Philip Rivers’ favorite target in veteran Antonio Gates.

3) Getting Creative – Soldiering through the Green Bay backfield tragedy

Eddie Lacy is likely out for the year, James Starks will be out for an extended period of time, and Knile Davis is a glorified kick returner. Considering this, whom do the Packers turn to in the backfield? Well, over the last couple of weeks, the Packers have revolutionized their offense to feature a pass heavy attack with ample empty sets and when not empty, featuring a former wide receiver Ty Montgomery out of the backfield. While he is not exactly running the ball with much regularity or particular success, Montgomery has gained RB status in most formats, and has been racking up plenty of receptions and all-purpose yards in the meantime. He’s the guy to target on the waiver wires and not Davis because I don’t see Green Bay changing their formula any time soon. Going forward, I will wager that Montgomery remains a more effective source out of Green Bay’s backfield than Knile Davis or anyone else not named Starks or Lacy. 

4) Bucking the Trend

In a league that has become so pass heavy, the Buccaneers started this season floundering while trying to keep up with that trend. They figured to turn to the passing game and their young and talented quarterback after an early season injury to their star running back in Doug Martin. This led to poor offense and three consecutive losses, dropping their record to 1-3 early on. In hopes of an identity change, the Tampa Bay offense pivoted to an unlikely source – Jacquizz Rodgers – a veteran journeyman back who has never proven to be a workhorse of any NFL offense. Surprisingly, in consecutive weeks, Rodgers has served as the catalyst of this new-look Buccaneers offense, as he has posted stat lines of 30 carries for 101 yards and 26 carries for 154 yards. The Buccaneers recommitment to the run has helped their defense, their quarterback, their receivers, and has made their offensive line nastier. Going forward, this should remain the identity of this Buccaneers offense, and it should only be strengthened once Doug Martin returns, whenever that may be.

5) What a week!

I usually discuss my prediction week in review in the section below, but I couldn’t help but add this to my “rapid reactions” section because it was honestly one of the main things on my mind while I was watching Sunday unfold.

In case you didn’t notice, Nostra-Dom-Us knocked it out of the park in Week 7. I provided three absolute home runs with my three predictions in last week’s edition, while additionally most of my “rapid reactions” discussions from last week were further proven as well (save for my rave impressions on the health of Shady McCoy).

For those who don’t feel like fact checking me…

My three Nostra-Dom-Us picks last week: DeMarco Murray (25 car, 107 yds, 1 TD; 3 rec, 20 yds), LeGarrette Blount (24 car, 127 yds, 2 TD’s), and Jeremy Hill (9 car, 168 yds, 1 TD; 2 rec, 24 yds).

Positively mentioned in “Rapid Reactions”: David Johnson (33 car, 113 yds; 8 rec, 58 yds), Jay Ajayi (28 car, 214 yds, 1 TD).

It was a week for the ages; essentially a perfect week in predictions. My fear is that now I can only go down from here…

NOSTRA-DOM-US

I was merely joking about that last part because as we are beginning to learn, I must truly be getting my running back prophecies from a higher power. I expect that my prediction game will only be getting stronger as the season goes on. Below are my thoughts on Week 8.

ELITE PLAY

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,200 on DraftKings) vs. PHI Defense

The last time the Eagles played a divisional opponent on the road was against the Redskins in Week 6. For all of their impressive defensive feats so far this season, Philly has been a different team on the road and it showed up in that matchup. The Redskins and their mediocre at best offense ran for 230 yards on the Eagles, en route to a 27-20 victory at home against their divisional rivals.

Enter Zeke Elliott and this Cowboys ground game, which has been the most fearsome offensive unit in the league so far this season. Since Week 3 Elliott has tallied 140, 138, 134, 157 yards in consecutive weeks. I expect the Cowboys to welcome Philly to Dallas the same way that the Redskins did to them to their home just two weeks ago. Dallas should rush for over 200 yards as a team and most of it will be on the back of their rookie runner in Elliott. Book it.

AFFORDABLE PLAY

Matt Forte ($6,400 on DraftKings) vs. CLE Defense

It appears that the Jets have decided to recommit to the ground game, especially after Ryan Fitzpatrick was forced back into action after the injury to Geno Smith. Considering this, I expect the Jets to give Matt Forte 30-plus touches again this week, just as they have in their other two wins this season (vs. Buffalo; vs. Baltimore). If this is in fact the case, then Forte should have success, as the Browns feature one of the worst rush defenses in the league. Cleveland currently is allowing 4.7 yards per rush and has allowed the second most yards on the ground overall with 979. Seriously consider the veteran at his affordable $6,400 price tag this week, as he should be featured heavily against the lowly Browns.

BARGAIN PLAYS

Jacquizz Rodgers ($5,800 on DraftKings) vs. OAK Defense

As I outlined earlier, the Buccaneers offense is hot right now and it is largely due to their investment in Jacquizz Rodgers. This week, they will be slight underdogs to the even hotter Oakland Raiders, but with the way that they are crafting their offensive game plans, I believe that they actually matchup well with Oakland. The Raiders may love to air it out, but I think that if the Buccaneers can commit to the ground game the way that they have the last two weeks, they may be able to control the pace of this game. Here are the facts: Rodgers has rushed for an average of 128 yards per game over the last two weeks. Oakland is allowing over 5.0 yards per carry and is fifth worst against the rush in terms of overall yardage. Start Rodgers at his bargain price of $5,800 and consider the Buccaneers as a nice upset pick for your other bets this week as well.

Isaiah Crowell ($3,700 on DraftKings) vs. NYJ Defense

This one is solely based off of price, as Crowell is going for near position minimum despite his standing as a starting running back. Yes, I understand that the Jets have the second best rush defense in the league, but I’m going to bank on touchdown upside here. He is the Browns preferred goal line back and with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, the Jets are susceptible to ample turnovers. If Fitz gives the Browns a short field a few times, I expect that Crowell can get the job done for fantasy owners at his bargain $3,700.