There was a lot of buzz regarding Rob Gronkowski ’s retirement in Title Town, also known as New England, as well as the reinstatement of their physically-gifted wideout, Josh Gordon . However, Julian Edelman ’s name isn’t getting thrown around as much as it likely should. It’s incredibly imperative to the New England offense, well, as important as someone can be in New England, where it seems that they can just plug-and-play guys and never skip a beat. After serving a four-game suspension for performance enhancing drugs, and coming off a lost year to a torn ACL, Edelman caught 74 passes on 108 targets for 850 yards and six touchdowns in 12 regular season games. The 33-year-old receiver has been a stalwart for Brady and the Patriots, and the departure of Rob Gronkowski certainly opens the door for some additional targets Edelman’s way. I mean, can he really increase anymore? He averaged nine targets per game last season, which comes out to 144 targets over the course of a full 16-game season. That mark would be the third-highest of his nine-year career.

While I can appreciate Edelman’s role in the offense and the consistency he displays, I can’t help but feel that he’s a little overpriced heading into this season. In PPR formats, I certainly understand why he is currently one of the first 15 wide receivers being drafted, but in half-point and standard formats, I believe he’s a tad overpriced. Again, he was incredibly reliable last season, and often saw near double-digit targets on a weekly basis, which is incredibly valuable. He saw at least five targets in every game last year, and he had just two just games with less than 50 receiving yards. Let’s take a look at Edelman and Gordon’s numbers in the ten games they played together last year.

 

Targets

Receptions

Yards

TDs

Red Zone Targets

Fantasy Points per Touch

Edelman

91

63

711

4

23

2.38

Gordon

62

38

688

2

9

3.28

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Gordon is going to make things happen down the field, but Edelman is the guy that will work the short-to-intermediate routes and move the chains for this offense. However, perhaps the most staggering statistic from above is not the fact that Gordon is more fantasy relevant per touch, but look at just how much Edelman is used in the red zone for this offense. If he ever can turn this into a double-digit touchdown season, it’s game over in fantasy!

Edelman’s role in the offense is guaranteed, and Josh Gordon will do his thing, as will rookie wideout N’Keal Harry. A full season of Gordon could steal some limelight away from Edelman, especially considering that the Patriots have the makings of a run-heavy football team. Okay, not quite Baltimore run-heavy, but closer to 50/50. Take a look at the team’s play calling over the past few years.

YEAR

Run%

Pass%

2016

44%

56%

2017

40%

60%

2018

45%

55%

Courtesy of Sharp Football Stats

That mark dipped a bit in 2018, and the team continues to invest in running backs, whether it be to carry the load on the ground, or to be involved in quick rhythm passes. Tom Brady ’s 570 passing attempts were the lowest in a season that he played all 16 games since 2010! Additionally, since he averaged 298.1 passing yards per game back in 2015, that mark has dropped each of the past three seasons, down to 272.2 yards per game last season.

My last knock on Edelman is that drops were a major problem last season. Per Pro Football Focus, his eight drops were tied for third-most in the National Football League. Edelman continues to age, so it is something worth monitoring.

Edelman is currently the 15th receiver off the board, per NFFC ADP data, and it just seems pricy. I understand that he’s more of a floor guy than a ceiling guy, but there are guys around him that just intrigue me more. It’s a personal call when it comes to drafting Edelman this season. Again, in PPR formats, I totally get him as a rock-solid WR2, but in standard formats, Edelman is not a high-end WR2. In those setups, he’s a back-end WR2. The touchdown upside is there with his pronounced role in the red zone, but he doesn’t have a season in his entire career where he scored more than seven touchdowns. If you crave consistency, Edelman is your guy, but there are multiple guys around him in terms of average draft position with far greater upside.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
sharpfootballstats.com