The entire fantasy landscape was robbed of what could have been a magical rookie campaign for Washington’s Derrius Guice . The LSU standout was selected 59th overall in the 2018 draft after amassing gaudy numbers in the Southeastern Conference. As a junior, he rushed for 5.3 yards per carry, and scored 13 touchdowns on 255 touches (237 carries, 18 receptions). For his entire career, spanning 471 rushing attempts, he averaged 6.5 yards per carry and scored a total of 32 touchdowns. He was an accomplished runner at the collegiate level, and he was inheriting a rather empty backfield that forecasted him being the lead back from Day 1. However, we were robbed, as Guice tore his ACL before the season began. The Redskins then signed future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson to tote the rock, and Peterson is still in the mix for 2019.

Reports were that Guice is coming along slower than the team would have liked. However, it is certainly better to come back too slow than too quick, especially with a knee injury of this magnitude. Peterson is an accomplished runner, absolutely, but Guice has bigger upside at this point in the veteran’s career. If Guice comes back healthy, and anywhere close to how he did coming out of college, he’s far and away the most talented rusher on this roster. However, there is a bit more competition compared to last year, especially with Peterson in the mix, Chris Thompson handling the pass-catching duties, and Washington selecting Bryce Love in the fourth-round of this season’s draft. However, it is worth noting that Love is dealing with a knee issue of his own, and will take some time to recover from his December surgery.

The team’s running back coach came out and said the ideal thing is a time share between the two, likely a 50/50 or 60/40 split. Shoot. This isn’t what you want to hear for Guice’s fantasy outlook. Ideally, he dominates the backfield, but coming off a major knee injury and the desire to preserve Guice long-term, it’s understandable as to why the Redskins believe a time share is ideal route. Now, that doesn’t mean it necessarily happens long-term, because if Guice comes out of the gate and is dominant, they might not be able to take him off the field.

Amidst the quarterback controversy in Washington, expect the team to attempt to establish the run early and often to help the quarterback. Last year, the Redskins were tied for the second-highest run rate on first down, per Sharp Football Stats. The team’s defense should be good enough to keep them in games, and when the Redskins had the lead last year, they had the sixth-highest run rate in the National Football League, per Sharp Football Stats.

From his time at LSU, Guice has shown the ability to bust out an explosive play. Based on the data from Sharp Football Stats, the 2019 schedule for the Redskins features nine opponents who ranked in the lower half of the league in terms of explosive rush defense in 2018. There are some tough matchup mixed in there, but there are also some really enticing ones where Guice could thrive.

The potential splitting of carries is reflected in our projections in the tools section of our website. Here is the breakdown for Guice, Peterson and Thompson.

PLAYER

CARRIES

RUSH YARDS

YPC

RU TDs

RECEPTIONS

REC. YARDS

FANTASY POINTS

Guice

140

568

4.0

4.0

14

96

98.8

Peterson

111

477

4.3

3.3

11

100

85.6

Thompson

74

325

4.4

2.1

28

188

86.8

Yikes. Not exactly the clearest picture there either. Per NFC average draft position (ADP), Guice is currently the 29th running back off the board, and he certainly has the upside to crack into that RB2 range. However, you are drafting a guy who is destined to be in a committee for at least a good chunk of the season, barring injuries. Ultimately, it comes down to your roster construction at this point in the draft. If you went heavy on running backs earlier and want an upside flier, go ahead and take Guice. However, if you need some stability at the running back position, you may need to forego the potential upside of Guice and take someone like Tevin Coleman or Lamar Miller .

There’s no denying Guice’s upside, but he is coming off a serious knee injury and has yet to play a regular season snap in the National Football League. If you can get Guice as your RB3, that’s a much better situation than him being your every week RB2.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
sharpfootballstats.com