Fantasy Baseball Category Impact: Quality Starts

Welcome back, FA Nation! Get ready for this week’s edition of Category Impact! If you’re new to the site or just forget how this article works since last week, let me offer a quick refresher.

Category Impact will offer up anywhere from four to six players that can help you out in a certain category, whether it is stolen bases, home runs, or strikeouts. Some weeks, there will be an added focus on a specific categories, while others will be just players that you will want to pick up, but there will be in-depth analysis detailing exactly what category, or categories, a certain player will be of added benefit.

This week’s featured category is…. QUALITY STARTS!

Lucas Giolito , SP CWS – Giolito’s stat line on the year is astonishingly ugly. He’s just 7-8 on the season and the 6.09 ERA and 1.51 WHIP are brutal on the eyes. His ERA in the month of July is 4.38 is his best of the season, however, even that number is misleading. If you take away his first start of the month when he was bombed by the Reds, he’s allowed just five earned runs across 19.2 innings, good for a 2.34 mark. He’s logged three straight quality starts, with those coming against the Angels, Royals and Astros.

The big key for Giolito is starting the game off on the right foot. His first inning of ERA is 8.55 and his WHIP is 2.20. Once he gets into the game, he can get through the middle innings, but it’s hard to log a quality start when you’ve allowed four earned runs and thrown 38 pitches in the first inning. Furthermore, it would be great if he could get the opposition to chase out of the zone more frequently. He’s at 22.6 percent this season, but that mark was at 33.1 percent last season.

Giolito was a first-round draft pick back in 2012 and at 24-years-old, there is plenty of time for him to figure things out, in theory. Giolito has been pitching better of late and is available in the majority of fantasy leagues.

Mike Fiers , SP DET – A trade involving Mike Fiers seems imminent, actually, guaranteed. Fiers is scheduled to start today’s game against the Indians, but if a trade is accepted, he could be removed early or perhaps even scratched. Fiers has rattled off five straight quality starts, the two most recent coming against the Red Sox and Astros. Almost a month ago, the start of his streak, he held the Oakland Athletics to just one run over seven innings. Fiers has been dynamic in the month of July, sporting a 1.71 ERA and holding the opposition to a mere .235 batting average over 26.1 innings. How has he been so good in July? Well, let’s compare his first half numbers with his numbers solely from the month of July:

His July numbers are better than his first half numbers, and some of his July starts accounted into those first half statistics!  It’s been an exceptional month for the likely-soon-to-be-traded Fiers and a trade to the right team (Oakland ideally) would be great for his fantasy value.

Zack Wheeler , SP NYM – Wheeler still might get traded given the likely fire sale that could happen in the Big Apple. Aside from a rough start or two, Wheeler has been dominant on the bump since the beginning of June. Over the last 30 days, Wheeler has an ERA just above 3.00 while holding the opposition to a batting average of .229. The strikeouts (30 in 32.2 innings) are sufficient and the walks remain relatively low. Sure, his BB/9 of 3.23 is still a touch high, however, in context, it’s somewhat positive, given the fact that it would be the lowest mark of his professional career.

Wheeler is throwing his sinker less often than he was in 2017 and the results have certainly helped. See below:

Not saying that that is the sole reason for his recent success and string of success in 2018, but it’s certainly worth noting. Wheeler’s ownership is creeping upwards, especially as his ERA continues to lower closer and closer to 4.00. Add him before its too late.

Ryan Borucki , SP TOR – Borucki’s spot in the rotation seemed lost with the news that Marco Estrada was on his way back to the rotation somewhat soon, however, with Estrada’s minor setback and the trade of J.A. Happ , Borucki may get to take a few more turns in the rotation. Let’s face the facts here; Aside from one start against the Red Sox, Borucki has been great for the Blue Jays. He’s received minimal run support, leading to his 0-2 record, but that 2.79 ERA is pretty nice and a bad start against Boston inflated his WHIP to 1.48. If Toronto is smart, they will leave Borucki in the rotation, and if you’re smart and in need of pitching, Borucki is a guy to add. He’s owned in fewer than four percent of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues. Yes, UNDER FOUR PERCENT!

If he wants to sustain success at the big leagues, he’ll likely need to increase the soft contact he allows, as well as continue to trust his secondary pitches. He throws his sinker nearly three times as much as his changeup, and nearly five times as much as his slider. He’s had success with those pitches, and in time, he’ll likely throw it more. Assuming he sticks in the rotation, which he should, he’s a worthy addition in most fantasy leagues, especially deeper mixed and AL-only formats.

Follow me on Twitter (@colbyrconway) after you pick up at least one person from this edition to boost your fantasy team!